Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.313 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Leake
0.300 — Gerardo Parra batting against Luis Perdomo
0.297 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luis Perdomo
0.297 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luis Perdomo
0.293 — Charles Blackmon batting against Luis Perdomo
0.283 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.283 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Shelby Miller
0.282 — Brandon Drury batting against Matt Cain
0.281 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jaime Garcia
0.281 — Yasmany Tomas batting against Matt Cain

This series might need to be renamed, “How Daniel Murphy Beats the Streak.” His impressive start to the season continued Tuesday night as Murphy went 4 for 5, missing the cycle by a base as he singled, doubled twice, and homered. Today he beats out everyone batting against the notoriously easy to hit Luis Perdomo (and Perdomo is pitching in Colorado).

The NN with Park produces this top ten:

0.313, 0.751 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Leake.
0.297, 0.726 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.300, 0.716 — Gerardo Parra batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.293, 0.716 — Charles Blackmon batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.297, 0.714 — Nolan Arenado batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.277, 0.710 — Yunel Escobar batting against A.J. Griffin.
0.283, 0.706 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Shelby Miller.
0.276, 0.706 — Jose Altuve batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.281, 0.706 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.273, 0.701 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.

There is a great deal of agreement in the top five slots, while the bottom five introduce four new players. Daniel Murphy is once more the consensus pick, with a probability 0.025 points higher than anyone else on the list. Murphy would need to go 0 for 7 to drop below a .400 BA.

Remember, even though Murphy owns a high probability, there is still a 25% chance he doesn’t get a hit. He also has not hit Mike Leake well in his career, 5 for 21 with a double and a home run.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2o62cac