Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.264 — Adam Jones batting against Matt Strahm.
• 0.264 — David Peralta batting against Matt Strahm.
• 0.263 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Ryne Stanek.
• 0.257 — J.D. Martinez batting against Aaron Brooks.
• 0.252 — Nolan Arenado batting against Ryne Stanek.
• 0.251 — Elvis Andrus batting against Bradley Peacock.
• 0.250 — Michael Brantley batting against Drew Smyly.
• 0.248 — Jose Altuve batting against Drew Smyly.
• 0.248 — Wilson Ramos batting against Caleb Smith.
• 0.245 — Javier Baez batting against Sean Newcomb.

Adam Jones went two for five on Sunday, and his batting average of .368 is the same as his hit average.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.270, 0.686 — Christian Yelich batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
• 0.268, 0.683 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
• 0.254, 0.680 — J.D. Martinez batting against Aaron Brooks.
• 0.264, 0.679 — Corey Dickerson batting against Adam Wainwright.
• 0.262, 0.679 — Freddie Freeman batting against Kyle Hendricks.
• 0.248, 0.678 — Jose Altuve batting against Drew Smyly.
• 0.264, 0.674 — Dee Gordon batting against Chris Stratton.
• 0.250, 0.674 — Michael Brantley batting against Drew Smyly.
• 0.251, 0.672 — Miguel Andujar batting against Tyson Ross.
• 0.258, 0.671 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Chris Archer.

These probabilities are very low. Once there is more data for 2019, we should see these probabilities closer to .750

Yelich’s hot start works its way into this listing. J.D. Martinez is the consensus pick, however.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

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