Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.277 — Eddie Rosario batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.277 — Jorge Polanco batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.272 — Nelson Cruz batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.272 — Willians Astudillo batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.269 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.268 — C.J. Cron batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.267 — David Peralta batting against Joey Lucchesi.
• 0.266 — J.D. Martinez batting against Marco Estrada.
• 0.265 — Jake Cave batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.262 — Marwin Gonzalez batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.262 — Jean Segura batting against Anibal Sanchez.
• 0.262 — Ehire Adrianza batting against Homer Bailey.

It’s early in the season, and Homer Bailey suffers from a small (0) sample size for 2019 and a poor track record in prior years. Rosario is off to a poor start this season, but his three-year average pulls him up.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.266, 0.693 — J.D. Martinez batting against Marco Estrada.
• 0.267, 0.689 — David Peralta batting against Joey Lucchesi.
• 0.262, 0.688 — Jean Segura batting against Anibal Sanchez.
• 0.277, 0.686 — Eddie Rosario batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.261, 0.685 — Wilson Ramos batting against Trevor Richards.
• 0.260, 0.680 — Adam Jones batting against Joey Lucchesi.
• 0.261, 0.680 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jon Lester.
• 0.277, 0.678 — Jorge Polanco batting against Homer Bailey.
• 0.261, 0.677 — Jose Martinez batting against Jameson Taillon.
• 0.246, 0.674 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Minor.

In the cases of small sample sizes, the NN does a better job of discerning the data that matters. So this list is not dominated by Twins, but Bailey is bad enough to pull two Twins onto the list.

Rosario is the consensus first choice, David Peralta the consensus second choice. J.D. Martinez is usually a good choice on any given night.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

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