Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.300 — David Peralta batting against Hector Velazquez.
• 0.292 — Adam Jones batting against Hector Velazquez.
• 0.282 — Elvis Andrus batting against Chris Stratton.
• 0.279 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Kyle Hendricks.
• 0.275 — Christian Yelich batting against Kyle Hendricks.
• 0.273 — Timothy Beckham batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.273 — Dee Gordon batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.269 — Cody Bellinger batting against Chad Bettis.
• 0.268 — Mitch Haniger batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.267 — Anthony Rendon batting against Zack Wheeler.

David Peralta and Adam Jones ran their hit streaks to nine games last night, two of five players with active streaks of nine or more. Hector Velazquez, in his brief career, posted low walk and strikeout rates. In other words, he allows the ball to be put in play, something that one wants when looking to extend a hit streak. It is impossible to get a hit unless a player can put a bat on the ball.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.300, 0.718 — David Peralta batting against Hector Velazquez.
• 0.292, 0.708 — Adam Jones batting against Hector Velazquez.
• 0.262, 0.694 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kenneth Merrill Kelly.
• 0.279, 0.691 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Kyle Hendricks.
• 0.282, 0.690 — Elvis Andrus batting against Chris Stratton.
• 0.275, 0.688 — Christian Yelich batting against Kyle Hendricks.
• 0.273, 0.685 — Dee Gordon batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.267, 0.684 — Anthony Rendon batting against Zack Wheeler.
• 0.265, 0.684 — Justin Turner batting against Chad Bettis.
• 0.251, 0.682 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Fiers.

The two systems agree on the top two batters. J.D. Martinez, with the longest current hit streak, rises to third. Jose Altuve’s long-term success brings him into the top ten.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2uOT9PM