Mike Trout hit his fifth home run of the season Sunday afternoon as the Angels beat the Rangers 7-2. He also drew three walks to bring that total to 11, with three hit by pitches.
With his one for two on Sunday, Trout raised his batting average to .393. Trout is a player that I believe could hit .400 if he lowered his strikeout rate. So far this season, that’s exactly what he did. He struck out just three times in 43 PA, or 7%. For his career, he averages strikeouts in 21% of his plate appearances. Trout owns a high career BABIP of .353. That would be his BA if he never struck out and never homered. Strikeouts lower BA relative to BABIP, but home runs raise it. So, if HR/(HR+K) is higher than BABIP, the player record a BA higher then their BABIP. For Trout right now, that value is .625.
So could Trout make it? It’s very tough. If Trout hits 50 home runs and strikes out just 40 times in 600 PA, he would hit .383 is his BABIP were .353. He would need to hit 60 HR with 40 K to reach .400.
It’s a tall order. Sixty home runs is a tough number. It today’s game, 40 K in 600 PA is even more difficult. It would make for a fascinating season, however.
Note that Miguel Cabrera cut his strikeout rate much less than that, and it led to a triple crown. That may be a more realistic goal for Trout, lowering his K rate enough for him to win a batting title.
from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2KhdV5j
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