Thursday, June 30, 2016

No Bum

I was skeptical of Madison Bumgarner batting tonight in Oakland, with the designated hitter available to the Giants. He doubled his first time up , however, scoring a run as the Giants take a 2-1 lead in the top of the third. This will make the pro-pitcher hitting crowd very happy. It does say something, however, that the Giants don’t have a player on the bench that can’t hit as well as a starting pitcher.



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Rodney to the Marlins

The Padres and Marlins made a deal:

The trade deadline is a month away, but the wheels are starting to spin: The Miami Marlins acquired veteran closer Fernando Rodney from the San Diego Padres for Class A pitcher Chris Paddack.

Rodney, who was in line to represent the Padres at the All-Star Game thanks to his 0.31 ERA (he’s allowed one earned run, and just two runs total, in 28? innings), likely moves into a setup role in front of closer A.J. Ramos, who has converted all 24 of his save chances despite walking 18 batters in 31 innings.

That’s interesting, since Rodney is the more experienced closer. I can see something very similar to what happened in Washington last season, when Jonathan Papelbon replaced a perfectly good closer after a trade. We’ll see how this plays out.

Paddack is just 20 years old and blowing away batters in A-Ball. Looks like the Padres are an early team going into selling mode.



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Injury and Trade

Clayton Kershaw wound up on the disabled list with a back injury:

The Los Angeles Dodgers say ace Clayton Kershaw received an epidural injection for his sore lower back and will be placed on the 15-day disabled list.

Manager Dave Roberts said before Thursday’s game in Milwaukee that Kershaw received the epidural Wednesday and the team should know in a few days how he responded to it.

Roberts did not know how long Kershaw is expected to be out or who would take his scheduled start on Friday at home against Colorado.

The Dodgers lose the best player on their team, and maybe the best player in the majors. That’s never a good sign. However, they moved quickly to fill his spot in the rotation:

With Clayton Kershaw on the disabled list, the Dodgers have made a move to plug their starting rotation. The team has acquired Atlanta starter Bud Norris in a five-player deal. The Dodgers will also receive minor-league outfielder Dian Toscano and a player to be named later.

Norris, a 31-year-old right-hander, has posted a 4.22 earned-run average in 22 games for the Braves. In five June starts, he went 2-1 with a 2.15 ERA.

In exchange, the Dodgers gave up a pair of minor-league pitchers, left-hander Phillip Pfeifer and right-hander Caleb Dirks.

Norris owns good career strikeout number, but his walks are a little high. He also has a history of a higher ERA than FIP. The Dodgers have a decent defense, so many Norris will benefit from that. Toscano was an on-base star in Cuba, but is 27 years old and hardly a prospect. Pfeifer is a high strikeout reliever who walks a ton of batters. Dirks is a reliever who might actually be good.



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Games of the Day

Kenta Maeda takes on Zach Davies as the Dodgers and Brewers play in Milwaukee on getaway day. Maeda posted good three-true outcome numbers in his first year in MLB: 83 strikeouts, 26 walks, and eight home runs in 86 2/3 innings. While he pitches well home and road, four of his six wins came on the road. Davies makes his 20th start in the majors. He owns a solid, steady career so far, with 3.73 ERA, 3.71 in 2015 and 3.74 in 2016.

John Lackey and Steven Matz go into the Cubs game at the Mets with 3.29 ERAs. Lackey’s three-true outcomes are a bit better on the road than at home, but his ERA away stands at 4.59, as he allowed many more hits. Matz tries to end a bad June on a high note, as he posted a 5.91 ERA in the month so far. He allowed 15 runs this month after allowing 16 runs in April and May combined.

Finally, Madison Bumgarner tries to keep his ERA under 2.00 as he visits the Athletics and Dillon Overton. Bumgarner allowed a .141 BA with runners in scoring position so far this season. What’s even more impressive is that he only faced 85 batters in that situation out of the 434 he faced in total. Making his second start, Overton tries to move his window toward a lower ERA. He showed the ability to keep the ball in the park in the minors, but gave up three home runs in his first start.

Enjoy!



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.321 — Paulo Orlando batting against Mike Leake
0.315 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.308 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.306 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.303 — Ian Desmond batting against Michael Pineda
0.302 — Ichiro Suzuki batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.302 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Carlos Rodon
0.302 — Christian Yelich batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.299 — Eric Hosmer batting against Mike Leake
0.298 — Whit Merrifield batting against Mike Leake
0.298 — Jurickson Profar batting against Michael Pineda

I suspect we are going to be seeing more of Paulo Orlando on this list. He should get more playing time with Lorenzo Cain on the disabled list, and as he gains more PA both this year and in his short career, the regression calculations will effect him less. He is a high BA, low OBP type of hitter, exactly the kind of player who should have long hit streaks. Meanwhile, the log5 method really likes hitters face Mike Foltynewicz.

The NN produces this list:

0.315, 0.749 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.302, 0.742 — Christian Yelich batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.306, 0.734 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.308, 0.733 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.297, 0.730 — Adrian Beltre batting against Michael Pineda.
0.302, 0.728 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.269, 0.728 — Buster Posey batting against Dillon Overton.
0.271, 0.724 — Adeiny Hechavarria batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.299, 0.722 — Eric Hosmer batting against Mike Leake.
0.321, 0.722 — Paulo Orlando batting against Mike Leake.

The NN likes batters against Foltynewicz as well. His long term hit average is .279, well above the .233 league average. Orlando drops to the bottom of this list, and the Overton window is moved to include Buster Posey in the discussion.

The NN that includes parks produces this list:

0.315, 0.708 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.302, 0.702 — Christian Yelich batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.306, 0.695 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.308, 0.693 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.297, 0.690 — Adrian Beltre batting against Michael Pineda.
0.269, 0.689 — Buster Posey batting against Dillon Overton.
0.302, 0.688 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.271, 0.685 — Adeiny Hechavarria batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.299, 0.684 — Eric Hosmer batting against Mike Leake.
0.321, 0.683 — Paulo Orlando batting against Mike Leake.

The only difference is the flipping of Posey and Nunez. Prado and Ozuna appear to be the consensus picks. As always, the best players on the list are going to go hitless 25% of the time.



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June Home Runs Keep Climbing

The major leagues generated 36 home runs on Wednesday, including six in the game between the Rangers and the Yankees. Two of those came in the bottom of the ninth, Brian McCann tying the game at seven with a three-run shot, his second of the game. Didi Gregorius then walked off with a two-run shot for a 9-7 Yankees victory. Daniel Murphy hit two home runs against his old team the Mets as Washington swept the series with a 4-2 win. Mark Trumbo hit his major league leading 23rd home run as the Orioles trounced the Padres 12-6.

That brings the June MLB total of home runs to 984. With 11 games on Thursday, the month record of 1069 homers in May 2000 is out of reach, and second place of 1033 in August 2004 will be tough as well. The June record is 995 in June of 2001, and that should be easily passed, and I suspect when we wake tomorrow, June 2016 will be just the third month ever to reach 1000 home runs.



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Thursday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Wednesday, June 29, 2016

4 Tips to Intensify the Benefits of Saunas

Content originally published and Shared from http://perfectbath.com

Saunas are used throughout the world for their health benefits. Below are some tips to intensify the benefits of saunas – read on!

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Drink Plenty of Water
Drink 8 to 16 ounces of water before going inside the sauna room, holistic physician Lawrence Wilson recommends in “Sauna Therapy.” During the sauna bath, the body produces a therapeutic sweat that eliminates heavy metals and toxic chemicals, Wilson says. Sauna enthusiasts say that the body can lose about a pint of water during a 20-minute sauna session. Source: LiveStrong

Exercise First
Exercise prior to entering the sauna. Since the sauna promotes circulation of the flow of blood through the body, this will help you recover from joint and muscle soreness from your workout. Plan your use of the sauna on days you rest from exercise. While beneficial in conjunction with exercise, it is claimed that a session of 15-20 minutes will give you a workout equivalent to a brisk walk of 1-2 hours. This is due to an increase in your heart rate which is similar to that which occurs during a brisk walk.  Source: wikiHow

Choose the Right Temperature
The temperature you create inside the sauna is very important in achieving the most beneficial sauna session. Studies show that it’s best to heat the sauna to a temperature between 176 and 194 degrees Fahrenheit. This way, you will feel comfortable inside the sauna, you will not overwhelm your body with too much heat, and you will benefit from all the good effects of the sauna. Source: AllWomenSites

Alternate Temperatures
After about 15 minutes, you better step out of sauna room to cool down your body in air. It is better to jump into a cold pool or lake. Experts say that shocking your body with hot and cold in succession increases the effects of sauna detoxification and increase the blood circulation in your body.
You need not to get your body chilled. When you start feeling cold, you better come back to the sauna room and stay there until you start sweating again. You have to repeat this heating and cooling of your body three to four times for best results. Just be sure not to exceed 45 minutes in total in the sauna room.
When you are finished, cool yourself with fresh air, not cold water, to settle your body temperature. Take a cold bath afterwards to remove any dead skin cells. Source: StepByStep

Contact:
Perfect Bath
Phone: Toll Free 1-866-843-1641
Calgary, Alberta
Email: info@perfectbath.com

The post 4 Tips to Intensify the Benefits of Saunas appeared first on Perfect Bath Canada.



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Astros Re-Enter

The Houston Astros pounded the Angels Wednesday afternoon 10-4. Jose Altuve went 4 for 5 to raise his MLB leading batting average to .357, missing the cycle by a home run. He scored four times in the game. He is on a tear, 23 for 55 in the Astros last 14 games, good for a .418 BA. He’s a big reason Houston is 12-2 in that span. That moved them into second place in the AL West and put them just 1/2 game out of the second wild card slot. The whole team is hitting well, averaging 1.5 HR per game in that stretch and 6.1 runs per game. Four times they went into double digits in runs, including consecutive 13 run games.



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Movie Night

My daughter Melinda and her friend Scot (with one T) are out at Fenway tonight to see Ferris Bueller’s Day Off. Before the movie started, attendees got to visit the dugout:

Melinda and Scot in the Fenway dugout.

Melinda and Scot in the Fenway dugout.

They also got to walk on the outfield warning track:

Melinda Pinto centerfield Fenway

Melinda standing in centerfield at Fenway Park.

I like that the Red Sox find other uses for Fenway to make a little money. Someone has to pay the Price.

🙂



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Jack The Ripper from West Wind Productions - A Closer Look

We're going back through time for this week's A Closer Look, coming face to face with Jack The Ripper, from Empire Of The Dead by West Wind Productions.


Jack is a single piece 28mm metal miniature. I picked him up a while back in the EotD: Requiem Kickstarter, but he is available now through West Wind's site for £4.



With most of his face hidden, it'll be a tricky job to convey any emotion he might have, but he looks a great piece to practice playing with different fabric techniques, with the different layers and folds across him.







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Games of the Day

Aaron Sanchez faces Tyler Anderson as the Blue Jays finish their interleague series with the Rockies. Sanchez goes for his eighth win of the season against one loss. In five more innings than he pitched in 2015, he increased his strikeout total by about 50% while reducing his walk rate. Anderson, a seasonal age 26 rookie, is off to a great start. He’s struck out 18 and walked just three in 17 2/3 innings without allowing a home run. Two of his three starts came at Coors, making his 2.55 ERA a bit more impressive.

Slugfest of the night belongs to the Twins at the White Sox as Ricky Nolasco takes on big runs James Shields. Opponents are hitting .294 against Nolasco, although his low walk rate means opponents are getting on base at a .323 clip. That batting average goes up to .359 with men on base, however, leading to his high ERA. Shields allowed 98 hits and 40 walks so far this season, 14 of those hits going for home runs. He allowed three runs in five innings his last time out, and when that’s a good performance, you know the pitcher is in trouble.

Enjoy!



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Jose Altuve batting against Jered Weaver
0.327 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Moore
0.317 — Danny Valencia batting against Jake Peavy
0.316 — Eduardo Nunez batting against James Shields
0.312 — Starling Marte batting against Wade Miley
0.311 — Melky Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.302 — Daniel Murphy batting against Logan Verrett
0.295 — Manny Machado batting against Christian Friedrich
0.293 — Jose Abreu batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.293 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Matt Moore

I’m surprised there aren’t more batters against James Shields, but the Twins don’t have many good hitters this year.

The NN produces this top ten:

0.332, 0.761 — Jose Altuve batting against Jered Weaver.
0.327, 0.753 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Moore.
0.311, 0.735 — Melky Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.293, 0.734 — Jose Abreu batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.312, 0.733 — Starling Marte batting against Wade Miley.
0.289, 0.732 — Josh Harrison batting against Wade Miley.
0.295, 0.730 — Manny Machado batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.278, 0.730 — Francisco Lindor batting against Joel De La Cruz.
0.316, 0.729 — Eduardo Nunez batting against James Shields.
0.278, 0.728 — Buster Posey batting against Sean Manaea.
0.317, 0.728 — Danny Valencia batting against Jake Peavy.

Nice agreement at the top of the list.

The NN with parks modifies the list like this:

0.332, 0.720 — Jose Altuve batting against Jered Weaver.
0.327, 0.710 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Moore.
0.293, 0.694 — Jose Abreu batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.311, 0.694 — Melky Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.312, 0.692 — Starling Marte batting against Wade Miley.
0.295, 0.692 — Manny Machado batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.289, 0.692 — Josh Harrison batting against Wade Miley.
0.278, 0.690 — Francisco Lindor batting against Joel De La Cruz.
0.257, 0.690 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Thomas Koehler.
0.278, 0.690 — Buster Posey batting against Sean Manaea.
0.317, 0.689 — Danny Valencia batting against Jake Peavy.

Jose Altuve and Xander Bogaerts it is! Remember, the best hitter on the list will still fail to get a hit 25% of the time. There was a nice example of that Tuesday night. Martin Prado hit a shot in his first AB. It was just to the right of the Detroit third baseman, Nick Castellanos. He tried to backhand the ball, but it was hit so hard it bounced off his glove. It went for an error, as an MLB third baseman should make that play. Prado goes 0 for 4 with a sac fly, but if the ball was an inch farther to the right, then he has a hit. Bad luck.



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June Home Run Update

Yesterday I mentioned that June looked like it would an extremely high number of home runs, this despite June being a short month of just 30 days. The majors produced 31 more home runs Tuesday night, a little below average for the month. That brings the total to 948 HR, which ranks the month 11th with two days to go. It should surpass May 2016 tonight. May produced 965 home runs, the 7th highest total. There are only 11 games on Thursday, which will provide fewer opportunities for long balls.

We all know the reason home runs are up:



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Road Hogs

Tuesday proved to be a very good night for visiting teams. In the four purely AL games, the road team won all four contests. None of the games were close as Texas and Houston won games 7-1, the Red Sox won 8-2, and the Twins pitched a 4-0 shutout. The Yankees, Angels, Rays, and White Sox fell respectively. In the four purely National League games, only the Nationals, with a 5-0 win over the Mets, defended their home turf. While the Cubs won big over the Reds, the Dodgers and Phillies each won by won run, beating the Brewers and Diamondbacks respectively.

In the seven interleague games, road teams took five games. Two slugfests took place in unusual parks, as Baltimore beat San Diego 11-7 and Oakland won in San Francisco 13-11. There were five home runs hit in PETCO Park, and four at AT&T. San Diego has been playing very small lately. Toronoto, St. Louis, and Cleveland also won on the road, Troy Tulowitzki homering against his old team at Coors.



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Wednesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Hickman Passes

Former MLB outfielder Jim Hickman died Saturday at the age of 79. My thoughts go out to his family and friends:

Hickman had his best year in 1970 with the Cubs, when he finished with 32 homers and 115 RBIs. He hit a game-ending single in the 12th inning of the All-Star Game that year, sending Pete Rose barreling into catcher Ray Fosse for the winning run.

Hickman posted a .315/.419/.582 slash line that year, well above all his career averages. That was at age 33, and it started an excellent end to his career. He hit .279/.378/.476 during his last five seasons in the majors. I wonder if his approach at the plate benefited from the 1969 lowering of the mound?



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Kluber No-No In Progress

Corey Kluber just completed five no-hit innings against the Braves. He walked one and struck out five so far, and a double play by the Indians means he faced the minimum 15 batters so far. He is working very efficiently as he is averaging 10 pitches per inning. The Indians lead the Braves 2-0.



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Cy Backs

Cy Young Award candidates Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg both suffer back issues. For Kershaw:

Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw is scheduled to leave the team’s current road trip and return to Los Angeles on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning in order to have his lower back stiffness further examined.

Strasburg is already on the disabled list, and his MRI results were encouraging:

The Nationals say an MRI that Stephen Strasburg underwent Monday morning has confirmed their diagnosis that he has an upper-back strain.

Strasburg, 27, threw a bullpen session Tuesday afternoon before Washington was set to play the New York Mets. He was scratched from his last two starts because of the back injury and was placed on the disabled list Sunday retroactive to June 16.

Manager Dusty Baker said the MRI made him feel better and that he prayed and knew Strasburg was going to be all right.

Kershaw owns a huge lead in the Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker points race, so if he goes on the disabled list, it might give some other pitchers a chance to close the gap.



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On The Desk - Mean and Green Part 6 - Finishing touches and Showcase!


I don't like this shuffling many projects at once, there is lots of progress but not much feeling of achievement from finishing something! Thankfully that is coming to an end with the first one done, This article will be a finishing touches on the model along with painting the base and then final shots of the completed piece, let's get started!

First of all there were some finishing touches to do to the model itself, namely the OSL and gems on his front. I didn't take any progress shots for these as there weren't really many steps involved. Here is the before and after shot for both the gems and OSL. Gems were done in an icy blue, nothing revolutionary, you can look back to my Wraithguard build or many guides on the internet for how to paint gems. 

I've never really done OSL much beyond a few plasma pistols but this model is a great opportunity for it with the flame in his hand. I used the Fluorescent Green from Warcolours (you might remember my review many months back, this is the first chance I've got to try it on an actual model.) I used black and white to help get the gradient in beforehand (a lot of this work was done by the zenithal prime but I adjusted it on the flames so the centre would be the brightest) then I applied several slightly thinned glazes of the fluorescent paints on the flame and even more thinned to the surrounding area (you can see this most clearly on the pommel of the dagger, chain and his breastplate. I also did a minimal glow on the eyes too (after this photo, can see it on the final mini) I'm really happy with the final effect and I think it really finishes the mini off.



The base! I hate painting bases I've made, I always seem to use too many flat surfaces and I can never get them looking how I want, this one was a real trial. From my standard Zenithal prime I used a sponge to add texture to the throne with a variety of shades of grey (and later some green) to try and mimic the variations in colour you find in some stone. 

Here you can see the green hints I've added to the throne. I decided to paint the lion's face on the throne in an almost NMM gold style. I used the S75 NMM gold set and some green and purple glazing in the shadows to help reinforce the lighting. This is actually one of the things I'm happiest about on the base and I didn't even really consciously plan it, I was on a skype call with some other painters and just kind of sketched it out. I decided to keep the surrounding area black and white so I used some greys to help highlight that.


The steps I did a blend from black to green at the front on each of them just using glazes really. The trim on the stairs I wanted to look like metal trim. I decided to stick with NMM because I've used it everywhere else and I thought it would clash if I suddenly had some large tru metallic areas on the base. Frankly this caused a lot of problems, I don't really know how to do NMM on such large flat areas so I mucked about for what seemed like hours with glaxes, sponging and all sorts of effects and I've ended up with....something. It doesn't really look like metal but it will have to do! Again no photos because I was frustrated so check out the showcase at the end!

And here is the finished piece. I'm pretty happy with the mini and mostly happy with the base. I think if I'd had a solid plan from the start rather than making it up as I went along I could have made a more impressive throne diorama but there we go. Lessons learned for the future!

As always any constructive criticism or questions in the comments below please :)



 As a reminder this was for a little friendly competition in a painting community, theme was Mean and Green and I think I covered that quite well!


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Ditching The Performance Review! Another Look

There is no doubt the performance planning and review process in most organizations is broken.  Too often, it’s a meaningless annual exercise of managers and their people filling out forms, having “the conversation” then going back to their real work.

Too often, the review process has become completely detached from how managers work with their people on a day to day basis.

In my own past jobs, even at senior levels, I’ve had my managers hand me a blank form, asking me to fill it out, then we sit down and talk about it.  We would go through the motions as quickly as possible, sign the forms and sigh in relief that it was over–at least for another 12 months.  But we go through the process, if only to keep HR off our backs.  Then we go back to our real work.

This annual process takes huge amounts of time from everyone.  It’s the time spent it completing the form, giving the review, and all the things associated with it—along with the mental distraction.  It’s hours per individual, multiplied by whatever number of reviews a manager has to go through.

Couple these with the facts that these reviews are connected with, at least in theory, compensation increases as well as our future employment with the company.

As if I haven’t created a strong enough case, layer this with, managers have very little training on how to do this–if anything the training is about filling out the forms.  There’s often nothing about setting performance expectations, providing feedback, how to evaluate performance, and so forth.

It’s no wonder there is dissatisfaction with the performance review process–both with managers and with individual contributors.

Many organizations are abandoning performance reviews completely.  Surprisingly, many never had a performance review process in place.  Many are searching for new tools to help with the process.

Ins spite of all of this, we can’t escape some things:

  1. It’s our job as leaders to maximize the performance of each person on our teams.
  2. Our people deserve and need to know what’s expected of them in their jobs.
  3. In order to improve, everyone needs feedback on how they are doing.  They need to understand where they are doing well, where they need to improve.

This may have been lost in many of our traditional performance review processes, but it’s our obligation to our people and to our companies to do these things.  If we aren’t, we aren’t doing our jobs.

This process cannot be one of filling out forms annually.  It has to be a continuous process, first establishing performance expectations and making sure they are understood and agreed to by each person.

Establishing performance expectations isn’t just about saying, “Here’s the number, make it or you’re gone!”  It’s about how we engage and create value for our customers, it’s about how we execute the corporate strategies in front of the customers, it’s about how we work with others in the organization, it’s about expected behaviors and attitudes, it’s about skills and competencies we must develop…….

Establishing performance expectations is not something we dictate or provide on a preprinted form, but they are the result of a collaborative discussion between the manager and the employee, making sure each person understands and owns what is being committed to in the performance plan.

We use this process to set priorities, to make sure each person understands what’s expected.  The plan is established as much for the leader as it is for the employee, because it’s the leader’s job to help the employee achieve their performance goals.  Any failure to do so must be shared by the individual and leader.

Then maximizing performance requires constant attention and feedback.  Our daily coaching provides feedback in specific areas, for example, prospecting, qualifying, deal strategies, call execution and so forth.

Periodically, we need to sit down with the individual providing feedback on the “total picture,” how each person is performing against all their performance expectations.  These conversations aren’t about what’s wrong, they are about helping the person learn and develop to meet the expectations that have been agreed upon.

Whether it’s tied to an annual process, or if it’s a dynamic ongoing process, performance planning, performance management is critical to everyone involved.

Yes, there is a lot broken in performance review processes.  But if we aren’t setting performance expectations, if we aren’t providing our people feedback on how they are performing, if we aren’t helping them constantly improve, then we aren’t doing our jobs.



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.341 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.337 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.336 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.333 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Harvey
0.331 — Michael Saunders batting against Eddie Butler
0.329 — Darwin Barney batting against Eddie Butler
0.329 — Ezequiel Carrera batting against Eddie Butler
0.327 — Christian Yelich batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.327 — Devon Travis batting against Eddie Butler
0.325 — Ichiro Suzuki batting against Mike Pelfrey

Log5 likes hitters on the Marlins and Blue Jays tonight as Mike Pelfrey and Eddie Butler both own high hit averages, short term and long term.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.305, 0.757 — Jose Altuve batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.341, 0.745 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.304, 0.744 — Chris Colabello batting against Eddie Butler.
0.327, 0.739 — Christian Yelich batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.293, 0.737 — Buster Posey batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.281, 0.737 — Francisco Lindor batting against Matt Wisler.
0.327, 0.735 — Devon Travis batting against Eddie Butler.
0.336, 0.735 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.333, 0.735 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Harvey.
0.302, 0.735 — Robinson Cano batting against Jonathon Niese.

Batters against Pelfrey and Butler make this list as well, with Martin Prado the consensus first choice so far. Chris Colabello makes an appearance here, but not on the first list. The NN appears to be discounting his poor 2016 season.

The NN with park changes the order a bit:

0.304, 0.718 — Chris Colabello batting against Eddie Butler.
0.305, 0.717 — Jose Altuve batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.327, 0.709 — Devon Travis batting against Eddie Butler.
0.341, 0.709 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.324, 0.708 — Kevin Pillar batting against Eddie Butler.
0.327, 0.703 — Christian Yelich batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.331, 0.701 — Michael Saunders batting against Eddie Butler.
0.329, 0.700 — Ezequiel Carrera batting against Eddie Butler.
0.293, 0.700 — Buster Posey batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.336, 0.699 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Pelfrey.

Playing at Coors Field moves Colabello to the top of the list. Looking at all three lists, Prado, Yelich, and Devon Travis seem to be the consensus picks. Remember, even the best pick is going to fail to get a hit 25% of the time.



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Games of the Day

Veteran left-handed pitchers battle in New York as Cole Hamels leads the Rangers against the Yankees and CC Sabathia. Hamels proved to be a terrific acquisition for the Rangers. He is now 15-2 in 27 starts since joining the Rangers with a 3.19 ERA. Sabathia tries to rebound from a poor start in which he allowed six runs to Rockies. It was the first time since the end of May he allowed more than two runs in a start.

Matt Harvey takes on the Nationals as Washington calls up Lucas Giolito to face the Mets. Harvey’s rough year continues as his strikeouts are down and his hits allowed are up. Both BIS and PITCHf/x have Harvey’s fastball velocity down, anywhere from one to one and a half MPH compared to 2015. Giolito replaces Stephen Strasburg in the lineup, the Nats ace healing on the disabled list. Giolito is seasonal age 21, with four full minor league seasons under his belt. He allowed just 13 home runs in 324 2/3 minor league innings. He was 9-5 with a 3.42 ERA in two partial season at AA.

Finally, Jerad Eickhoff takes on Zack Greinke as the Phillies play the Diamondbacks. Eickhoff suffers from poor run support this season, 5-9 in 15 starts. He gets decisions, but gives up just enough runs to lose often. He does have excellent walk numbers, which help him hold batters to a .299 OBP. Greinke pitches at home, where he is 5-3 despite a 5.06 ERA. Nine of his 12 home runs allowed came at home.

Enjoy!



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Cincinnati Slugfest and June Home Runs

The Cubs and Reds powered the ball out of Great American Ballpark Monday night as the teams combined for seven home runs. Kris Bryant (3) and Joey Votto (2) hit five of those, while Jake Arrieta and Anthony Rizzo joined in as Chicago beat Cincinnati 11-8. Arrieta got the win but did not pitch well. He carried a heavy workload over the last calendar year, and given his recent performances, those innings may be catching up with him.

I recently saw that the Orioles are close to the team record for home runs in any month, and need seven homers in three days to tie the record at 58. That would be impressive given that June is a short month. It turns out, June 2016 may be one of the top months of all time across the majors.

So far, June produced 917 home runs, or 33.9 per day. Over 30 days, that projects to 1019 home runs in the month. The record is 1069 set in May of 2000, followed by 1033 in August of 2004. The only other month to come close to 1000 home runs was June of 2001 at 995. June 2016 has a very good chance of at least setting the June record.



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Daily Dose of Data

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Monday, June 27, 2016

The Hard Cell

Two Angels pitchers underwent bone marrow stem cell therapy to try to avoid Tommy John surgery. Garrett Richards and Andrew Heaney received injections two weeks apart, and now they wait to see if they can pitch again with a healed ligament. This procedure is experimental, and Dr. Larry Goldstein of the Sanford Stem Cell Clinical Center at UC San Diego cautions about the anecdotal stories of success:

When players such as Richards and Heaney are injected with concentrated bone marrow, stem cells are among a range of cells in the mixture, in addition to proteins, rather than a pure mixture of stem cells.

“You don’t actually know it’s the stem cells that are making the changes,” Goldstein said. “It could be some other active ingredient in the cell preparation.”

Then there’s the role a player’s rehab plays.

“You never know with athletes,” Goldstein said. “They have the best medical care in the world. They’re fanatics about working out and following rehab. How do they know they got better than they would have without the treatment? It’s just total speculation.”

If there continues to be success with the combination of injections and rehabilitation, the medical community will have a good reason to tease out what is working and try maybe lessen the need for surgery on partially torn ligaments.



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Brookmere by Onni

The Brookmere by Onni, offers a 28 story tower that will rise above West Coquitlam.  Located at 535 North Road, Coquitlam, right in the heart of the new Burquitlam city centre. Brookmere blends Burnaby’s urban vive with the Coquitlam’s neighbourhood spirit.

Brookmere offers several amenities as well including a media room, yoga space, meeting room and 3rd floor outdoor terrace with several garden plots. The media room is a great place to watch movies or the season finale of Game of Thrones.   On the other hand, the yoga space is a great place to exercise in. You can go to the yoga room and carry out yoga to stay fit or you can simply just go there and exercise however you want to.

Another offering of Brookmere is the party room. The party room comes equipped with full kitchen and dining. The full kitchen and dining is offers you an all exclusive access to kitchen appliances. You can easily cook your favorite meals there. On the other hand, the dining is also a great place to go and sit in and have food in. Aside from these amenities, another great offering at the Brookmere is the professional equipped gym. The professional equipped gym allows you to work out the best free of charge. It lets you exercise and keep your health intact.

Brookmere starts at $269,000 and it has a total of 216 units.

brookemere4 brookemere brookemere2 brookermeretower

 

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