Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.331 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Michael Pineda
0.323 — Daniel Murphy batting against Colin Rea
0.305 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Adrian Sampson
0.304 — Francisco Lindor batting against James Shields
0.299 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Wei-Yin Chen
0.299 — Carlos Beltran batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.296 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Wei-Yin Chen
0.296 — Didi Gregorius batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.296 — Yunel Escobar batting against Zachary Neal
0.295 — Jose Altuve batting against Cody Reed

Bogaerts and Altuve are so good, they make the list against pitchers in the major league debuts, who rate as league average in this system. Adrian Sampson is a low walk, low strikeout pitcher, so batters put the ball in play against him. That the kind of pitcher who might allow a good number of hits. In three seasons at AAA he allowed 307 hits in 262 innings. Reed is a high K, high walk pitcher, so there are going to be fewer chances for batters to put the ball in play against him.

Here is the NN top ten:

0.295, 0.754 — Jose Altuve batting against Cody Reed.
0.289, 0.740 — Buster Posey batting against Matt Moore.
0.305, 0.740 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Adrian Sampson.
0.331, 0.739 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Michael Pineda.
0.323, 0.737 — Daniel Murphy batting against Colin Rea.
0.275, 0.736 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Matt Boyd.
0.274, 0.732 — Robinson Cano batting against Rick Porcello.
0.304, 0.730 — Francisco Lindor batting against James Shields.
0.283, 0.726 — Eric Hosmer batting against Matt Boyd.
0.255, 0.726 — Josh Harrison batting against Jon Lester.

NN with Park produces these results:

0.295, 0.712 — Jose Altuve batting against Cody Reed.
0.305, 0.704 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Adrian Sampson.
0.331, 0.703 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Michael Pineda.
0.275, 0.700 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Matt Boyd.
0.323, 0.698 — Daniel Murphy batting against Colin Rea.
0.274, 0.698 — Robinson Cano batting against Rick Porcello.
0.289, 0.697 — Buster Posey batting against Matt Moore.
0.304, 0.693 — Francisco Lindor batting against James Shields.
0.283, 0.690 — Eric Hosmer batting against Matt Boyd.
0.269, 0.690 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Edinson Volquez.

The NN likes Lorenzo Cain more than log5, and the NN with Park likes him even better. Bogaerts and Nunez seem to be the consensus picks.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/1Qd5Kn6