Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.330 — Danny Valencia batting against Jered Weaver
0.322 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Nathan Eovaldi
0.313 — Yunel Escobar batting against Eric Surkamp
0.310 — Paulo Orlando batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.309 — Steve Pearce batting against Jake Peavy
0.304 — Josh Reddick batting against Jered Weaver
0.299 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.296 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Taijuan Walker
0.293 — Salvador Perez batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.292 — Francisco Lindor batting against Carlos Rodon

Danny Valencia appears on this list often, but usually not at the top. He hits for a decently high batting average without a lot of walks, but he does strike out a bit. Weaver is allowing a .311 BA this season, just awful.

The NN list looks like this:

0.322, 0.744 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.296, 0.738 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.262, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Brandon Finnegan.
0.290, 0.737 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.313, 0.730 — Yunel Escobar batting against Eric Surkamp.
0.330, 0.729 — Danny Valencia batting against Jered Weaver.
0.299, 0.727 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.292, 0.727 — Francisco Lindor batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.262, 0.726 — Howie Kendrick batting against Matt Garza.
0.252, 0.726 — Josh Harrison batting against Kyle Hendricks.

The NN bring Lorenzo Cain into the mix. Three other Royals beat him with the log5 method, but only Hosmer survives the NN.

Here is the list for the NN with the park built in:

0.322, 0.708 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.296, 0.704 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.290, 0.702 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.262, 0.696 — Jose Altuve batting against Brandon Finnegan.
0.299, 0.692 — Eric Hosmer batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.292, 0.691 — Francisco Lindor batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.313, 0.690 — Yunel Escobar batting against Eric Surkamp.
0.330, 0.689 — Danny Valencia batting against Jered Weaver.
0.310, 0.687 — Paulo Orlando batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.262, 0.685 — Howie Kendrick batting against Matt Garza.
0.281, 0.685 — Adrian Beltre batting against Mike Leake.
0.291, 0.685 — Martin Prado batting against Tyler Anderson.

Nunez appears to be the consensus top pick today. Please remember, 25% of the time the top pick won’t get a hit.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/24YSd43