Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Jose Altuve batting against Jered Weaver
0.327 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Moore
0.317 — Danny Valencia batting against Jake Peavy
0.316 — Eduardo Nunez batting against James Shields
0.312 — Starling Marte batting against Wade Miley
0.311 — Melky Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.302 — Daniel Murphy batting against Logan Verrett
0.295 — Manny Machado batting against Christian Friedrich
0.293 — Jose Abreu batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.293 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Matt Moore

I’m surprised there aren’t more batters against James Shields, but the Twins don’t have many good hitters this year.

The NN produces this top ten:

0.332, 0.761 — Jose Altuve batting against Jered Weaver.
0.327, 0.753 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Moore.
0.311, 0.735 — Melky Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.293, 0.734 — Jose Abreu batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.312, 0.733 — Starling Marte batting against Wade Miley.
0.289, 0.732 — Josh Harrison batting against Wade Miley.
0.295, 0.730 — Manny Machado batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.278, 0.730 — Francisco Lindor batting against Joel De La Cruz.
0.316, 0.729 — Eduardo Nunez batting against James Shields.
0.278, 0.728 — Buster Posey batting against Sean Manaea.
0.317, 0.728 — Danny Valencia batting against Jake Peavy.

Nice agreement at the top of the list.

The NN with parks modifies the list like this:

0.332, 0.720 — Jose Altuve batting against Jered Weaver.
0.327, 0.710 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Moore.
0.293, 0.694 — Jose Abreu batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.311, 0.694 — Melky Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.312, 0.692 — Starling Marte batting against Wade Miley.
0.295, 0.692 — Manny Machado batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.289, 0.692 — Josh Harrison batting against Wade Miley.
0.278, 0.690 — Francisco Lindor batting against Joel De La Cruz.
0.257, 0.690 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Thomas Koehler.
0.278, 0.690 — Buster Posey batting against Sean Manaea.
0.317, 0.689 — Danny Valencia batting against Jake Peavy.

Jose Altuve and Xander Bogaerts it is! Remember, the best hitter on the list will still fail to get a hit 25% of the time. There was a nice example of that Tuesday night. Martin Prado hit a shot in his first AB. It was just to the right of the Detroit third baseman, Nick Castellanos. He tried to backhand the ball, but it was hit so hard it bounced off his glove. It went for an error, as an MLB third baseman should make that play. Prado goes 0 for 4 with a sac fly, but if the ball was an inch farther to the right, then he has a hit. Bad luck.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/293SYVS