Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.321 — Paulo Orlando batting against Mike Leake
0.315 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.308 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.306 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.303 — Ian Desmond batting against Michael Pineda
0.302 — Ichiro Suzuki batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.302 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Carlos Rodon
0.302 — Christian Yelich batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.299 — Eric Hosmer batting against Mike Leake
0.298 — Whit Merrifield batting against Mike Leake
0.298 — Jurickson Profar batting against Michael Pineda

I suspect we are going to be seeing more of Paulo Orlando on this list. He should get more playing time with Lorenzo Cain on the disabled list, and as he gains more PA both this year and in his short career, the regression calculations will effect him less. He is a high BA, low OBP type of hitter, exactly the kind of player who should have long hit streaks. Meanwhile, the log5 method really likes hitters face Mike Foltynewicz.

The NN produces this list:

0.315, 0.749 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.302, 0.742 — Christian Yelich batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.306, 0.734 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.308, 0.733 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.297, 0.730 — Adrian Beltre batting against Michael Pineda.
0.302, 0.728 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.269, 0.728 — Buster Posey batting against Dillon Overton.
0.271, 0.724 — Adeiny Hechavarria batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.299, 0.722 — Eric Hosmer batting against Mike Leake.
0.321, 0.722 — Paulo Orlando batting against Mike Leake.

The NN likes batters against Foltynewicz as well. His long term hit average is .279, well above the .233 league average. Orlando drops to the bottom of this list, and the Overton window is moved to include Buster Posey in the discussion.

The NN that includes parks produces this list:

0.315, 0.708 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.302, 0.702 — Christian Yelich batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.306, 0.695 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.308, 0.693 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.297, 0.690 — Adrian Beltre batting against Michael Pineda.
0.269, 0.689 — Buster Posey batting against Dillon Overton.
0.302, 0.688 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.271, 0.685 — Adeiny Hechavarria batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.299, 0.684 — Eric Hosmer batting against Mike Leake.
0.321, 0.683 — Paulo Orlando batting against Mike Leake.

The only difference is the flipping of Posey and Nunez. Prado and Ozuna appear to be the consensus picks. As always, the best players on the list are going to go hitless 25% of the time.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/296LaCL