Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.341 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.337 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.336 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.333 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Harvey
0.331 — Michael Saunders batting against Eddie Butler
0.329 — Darwin Barney batting against Eddie Butler
0.329 — Ezequiel Carrera batting against Eddie Butler
0.327 — Christian Yelich batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.327 — Devon Travis batting against Eddie Butler
0.325 — Ichiro Suzuki batting against Mike Pelfrey

Log5 likes hitters on the Marlins and Blue Jays tonight as Mike Pelfrey and Eddie Butler both own high hit averages, short term and long term.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.305, 0.757 — Jose Altuve batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.341, 0.745 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.304, 0.744 — Chris Colabello batting against Eddie Butler.
0.327, 0.739 — Christian Yelich batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.293, 0.737 — Buster Posey batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.281, 0.737 — Francisco Lindor batting against Matt Wisler.
0.327, 0.735 — Devon Travis batting against Eddie Butler.
0.336, 0.735 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.333, 0.735 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Harvey.
0.302, 0.735 — Robinson Cano batting against Jonathon Niese.

Batters against Pelfrey and Butler make this list as well, with Martin Prado the consensus first choice so far. Chris Colabello makes an appearance here, but not on the first list. The NN appears to be discounting his poor 2016 season.

The NN with park changes the order a bit:

0.304, 0.718 — Chris Colabello batting against Eddie Butler.
0.305, 0.717 — Jose Altuve batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.327, 0.709 — Devon Travis batting against Eddie Butler.
0.341, 0.709 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.324, 0.708 — Kevin Pillar batting against Eddie Butler.
0.327, 0.703 — Christian Yelich batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.331, 0.701 — Michael Saunders batting against Eddie Butler.
0.329, 0.700 — Ezequiel Carrera batting against Eddie Butler.
0.293, 0.700 — Buster Posey batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.336, 0.699 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Pelfrey.

Playing at Coors Field moves Colabello to the top of the list. Looking at all three lists, Prado, Yelich, and Devon Travis seem to be the consensus picks. Remember, even the best pick is going to fail to get a hit 25% of the time.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/291KemZ