Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.340 — Jose Altuve batting against John Lamb
0.322 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Hisashi Iwakuma
0.319 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kendall Graveman
0.317 — Jean Segura batting against Adam Morgan
0.307 — Daniel Murphy batting against Christian Friedrich
0.302 — Danny Valencia batting against Matthew Shoemaker
0.300 — Odubel Herrera batting against Robbie Ray
0.295 — David Peralta batting against Adam Morgan
0.293 — Johnny Giavotella batting against Kendall Graveman
0.293 — Martin Prado batting against Jonathan Gray

There is no one standout bad pitcher on this Friday. Mostly we are seeing good hitters having good years.

The original NN produces this top ten:

0.340, 0.769 — Jose Altuve batting against John Lamb.
0.322, 0.744 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.307, 0.743 — Daniel Murphy batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.319, 0.737 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.295, 0.734 — David Peralta batting against Adam Morgan.
0.293, 0.733 — Martin Prado batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.277, 0.732 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jose Quintana.
0.235, 0.732 — Ben Revere batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.300, 0.730 — Odubel Herrera batting against Robbie Ray.
0.302, 0.725 — Danny Valencia batting against Matthew Shoemaker.

There is good agreement between the top of the two lists today.

Here is the NN list using park information:

0.340, 0.727 — Jose Altuve batting against John Lamb.
0.322, 0.708 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.307, 0.704 — Daniel Murphy batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.319, 0.698 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.295, 0.697 — David Peralta batting against Adam Morgan.
0.277, 0.696 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jose Quintana.
0.235, 0.695 — Ben Revere batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.293, 0.695 — Martin Prado batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.300, 0.692 — Odubel Herrera batting against Robbie Ray.
0.302, 0.686 — Danny Valencia batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.243, 0.686 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Michael Fulmer.

It looks like a Jose Altuve day. Remember the caveat, 25% of the time the best player on the list is not going to get a hit.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/1WQFEsi