Friday, September 30, 2016

Mets to Keep Playing

The Mets beat the Phillies 5-1 Friday night. The win means the Mets can do no worse than a three-way tie for the wild card at the end of the regular season. They will either win one of the slots outright, and go on to the wild card game, or wind up in a three-way tie. Either way, the Mets will play on beyond game 162.

Robert Gsellman pitched very well, allowing one run in six innings, walking one and striking out seven. If he can pitch that well in the post season, the Mets will have solved one pitching injury.



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Papi Pops

David Ortiz homers in bottom of the seventh to give the Red Sox a 5-3 lead over the Blue Jays. The two-run shot breaks the tie, and gives him three RBI for the game and 127 on the season. The crowd wanted a home run, Ortiz got a fast ball, and just drilled it into the seats in right. An impressive start for his farewell weekend.



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Free Baseball

You can watch every game on MLB.TV free for the rest of the regular season, subject to backouts.



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Games of the Day

The Mets can clinch a wild card berth with a win against the Phillies and a Cardinals loss. Robert Gsellman takes on Alec Asher. The two have combined for a total of 79 1/3 major league innings. Gsellman posted strong three-true outcome numbers so far, especially his 35 K in 38 2/3 innings with one home run allowed. Asher’s strikeouts are very low, he fixed his home run problem from 2015. He gave up eight home runs in 29 innings last year, none in 21 2/3 innings this year.

The Blue Jays hold the tie-breaker with the Orioles, so as long as they continue to win, they will host the wild card game. Marco Estrada takes on the Red Sox and Rick Porcello in a game threatened by rain. Estrada holds a 4.26 ERA career at Fenway, but his last start there was his best. I wonder if Porcello actually starts this game? If it’s wet and cold, why risk the best pitcher on your team? Winning home field is a long shot now, and with Cleveland’s depleted rotation, I suspect the Red Sox might want to play the Indians rather than the wild card.

Finally, the Dodgers try to push the Giants out of the post-season as Rich Hill faces Madison Bumgarner. In his brief time with the Dodgers, Hill faced the Giants twice and allowed one run in 11 innings. He managed to lose the game with the one run, as the Giants pitched a shutout. Despite striking out 32 Dodgers in 23 innings and walking just three, Bumgarner is 0-2 against the Dodgers this season in four starts with a 3.91 ERA. The Dodgers BABIP is .356 against Bumgarner this season.

Enjoy!



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Tweet of the Night

I hate to say it, but it’s a silly ground rule at that park. There are no fans touching the ball, it’s simply a carom off a wall. If the ball gets lodged on top of the fence, it should be a GRD. When the ball simply bounces and stays in play with no fans touching it, why should it be a GRD?



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Massive Tie Scenario

A possible three-way tie in the NL did well Thursday night as both the Cardinals and Giants won, gaining on the idle Mets. The three teams can tie at 86 wins tops:

NL Wild Card Tie Possibility
Team Record
Mets 1-2
Giants 2-1
Cardinals 3-0

 

There are only two combinations that can produce a tie, the one above and the one in which the three teams wind up with 85 wins. The probability of a three-way tie rose from 0.0186 to 0.0352. There is still a chance of a tie between the Giants and Cardinals for the second slot, and that would result in a playoff game on Monday at St. Louis.

The Orioles beat the Blue Jays to gain a tie atop the AL Wild Card race, while the Mariners won as well. Detroit and Cleveland were postponed, putting a Monday makeup wrinkle into the massive tie scenario. A four-way tie still works at 88 wins:

AL Wild Card Tie Possibility
Team Record
Blue Jays 1-2
Orioles 1-2
Tigers 3-1
Mariners 3-0

 

The probability of this scenario is 0.00769.

There are numerous possibilities for three-way ties as well, for the top two slots or for the second wild card slot. Three teams tying for the second wild card slot would be the most disruptive of the playoffs.

AL Wild Card Tie Possibility, three teams tying for two slots.
Team Record
Blue Jays 2-1
Orioles 2-1
Tigers 4-0

 

This scenario has a probability of 0.0514.

And a three-way tie for the second slot:

AL Wild Card Tie Possibility
Team Record
Orioles or Toronto 1-2
Tigers 3-1
Mariners 3-0

The probability of either of theses scenarios is 0.0354, but there are two of them.

Note that rain isn’t finished trying to make a mess of the post-season picture. It is supposed to rain the next three days in Boston. The Blue Jays could wind up with a double header on Sunday and a makeup game on Monday.

The best outcomes for Friday:

  • The Orioles fall to the Yankees.
  • The Mets lose to the Phillies.
  • The Blue Jays suffer defeat at the hands of the Red Sox.
  • The Tigers defeat the Braves.
  • The Cardinals beat the Pirates.
  • The Mariners win against the Athletics.
  • The Giants defeat the Dodgers.


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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.362 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Wright
0.326 — Daniel Murphy batting against Andrew Cashner
0.323 — Trea Turner batting against Andrew Cashner
0.309 — Melky Cabrera batting against Tyler Duffey
0.309 — Jose Abreu batting against Tyler Duffey
0.306 — Jean Segura batting against Edwin Jackson
0.303 — Ryan Braun batting against Chad Bettis
0.303 — Tim Anderson batting against Tyler Duffey
0.300 — Justin Morneau batting against Tyler Duffey
0.297 — Carlos Correa batting against Daniel Wright
0.296 — Marwin Gonzalez batting against Daniel Wright
0.295 — Alex Bregman batting against Daniel Wright

Houston is no longer playing for a post-season slot, but they do get a chance to hit against the Angels pitching staff.

The NN produces this list:

0.362, 0.779 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Wright.
0.326, 0.758 — Daniel Murphy batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.323, 0.748 — Trea Turner batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.290, 0.732 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brent Suter.
0.306, 0.726 — Jean Segura batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.309, 0.720 — Jose Abreu batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.309, 0.718 — Melky Cabrera batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.274, 0.716 — Devon Travis batting against Rick Porcello.
0.303, 0.716 — Ryan Braun batting against Chad Bettis.
0.284, 0.716 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Matt Wisler.
0.300, 0.714 — Justin Morneau batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.277, 0.714 — Paulo Orlando batting against Ryan Merritt.

I’m surprised Travis makes the list against Porcello. Porcello does walk very few batters, so if someone does reach against the Red Sox ace, it’s likely to be via the hit. Travis is a big banged up, so check that he is playing Friday night.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.362, 0.778 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Wright.
0.326, 0.761 — Daniel Murphy batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.323, 0.752 — Trea Turner batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.290, 0.740 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brent Suter.
0.306, 0.733 — Jean Segura batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.303, 0.728 — Ryan Braun batting against Chad Bettis.
0.309, 0.726 — Jose Abreu batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.309, 0.725 — Melky Cabrera batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.274, 0.722 — Devon Travis batting against Rick Porcello.
0.276, 0.720 — Charles Blackmon batting against Brent Suter.
0.284, 0.720 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Matt Wisler.
0.300, 0.720 — Justin Morneau batting against Tyler Duffey.

It looks like Altuve and Turner are the consensus picks. Good luck! Your top pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.



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Friday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Phoenix Guard Part 5: On the brink..


Well my plan here was to finish this guy in time for Golden Demon, this weekend, let's see how much is left to do!



I've been painting pretty hard for the last couple of weeks but I still have a lot of stuff to finish off, part of that is that I'm determined to finish a squad entry also!

This week I gradually worked my way through the armoured parts..



Before working on the cloth:


And then the weapon:

Exciting times we're nearly there! So just to make things difficult, I wanted to also finish a unit, this unit I started way back in 2014 but got burnt out, now i'm pushing really hard to try and finish. Here's where I'm up to so far..
Sorry for the poor photo! It's all getting a bit rushed, I'm working really hard to finish these guys in time!
Wish me luck folks and I'll showcase the finished (hopefully!) models after the event!




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Thursday, September 29, 2016

Focus On The Customer Journey, Not Their Buying Journey

Over the years, we’ve made some progress, shifting our focus from our Selling Process to the Customer Buying Journey.  We’ve finally recognized the customer is in control–funny, I always thought they were.

We know that focusing on their Buying Journey, aligning our Selling Process with their journey is critical to our success (selfishly speaking.)  We know they struggle to buy, often abandoning the process at some point, largely because they can’t align the agendas and priorities of the 6.8 people involved in the buying decision.

We know that top sales professionals create value not just in the value produced by their solutions, but in helping the customer in their Buying Journey.

But there’s possibly something we are missing.  I think it’s our focus on the Buying Journey.  We treat it as a set of activities separate from everything else they are trying to achieve.  We often isolate it from the bigger picture–which is the world the customer lives in and what they are trying to achieve.

Customers don’t embark on a Buying Journey just to buy.  They don’t outline their needs and requirements for a solution, just because it’s part of what they have to do to buy.  Their goal is not to issue a PO.

In reality, the customer is always on a larger journey–a journey to accomplish something.  It may be to address new opportunities.  It may be to solve some problems.  It’s always to achieve some business and personal goals.  This is true for all of our customers, even our friends in procurement.

Buying is just one line item on the checklist of things they must accomplish on this journey.

Reflect, for a moment, on projects within your own company–any project, not just those that involve buying.  How many great projects get started, but fail to reach the end?  But there are, also, all the projects that do proceed successfully.  There are countless tasks, milestone reviews, adjustments, and challenges faced in achieving the goals of the project.

Think of all the new initiatives that come out of executive strategy sessions, the improvement projects different functions undertake to continually get better.  Within sales and marketing, there are endless plans and programs, all of which are focused on achieving some goals for the organization.  Think of how the project team struggles with keeping on target—it’s usually not the hard things, but the simpler things, agreeing on the project scope and goals, the schedule, identifying critical activities, executing those activities, meeting target dates, adjusting to the rough spots along the way, deciding what to do, how to do it.  Getting approval  from management, buy in for all those involved or impacted.  Finally, implementation, doing all the work the achieve the goals you set out to achieve in the first place, as well as the numerous course corrections along the way.

Often, a very large project spawns a number of smaller projects–all of which must be synced with the larger project plans and goals.  In fact, the Customer Journey may encompass a number of Buying Journeys.   For example, if I’m designing a phone, I have displays, cases, batteries, active/passive components, shielding, and hundreds of things to “buy” as part of the overall project.  If I’m putting in a new manufacturing line, I have all the various tools, systems, transport, sensors/monitoring devices, power, HVAC, delivery systems–possibly hundreds of things to buy.

Where does the Buyer’s Journey fit in the context of the overall Customer Journey?

Even if it’s a large part, for example a major new manufacturing line, a new financial system, a new marketing automation tool, a CRM system, the Buyer’s Journey is just a part of the overall Customer Journey.

Yet our focus, if we’re pretty good, is on the Buyer’s Journey.  We rarely touch on the other parts of their journey, often are completely ignorant of those things.  If we’re better, we may provide a business case and some justification to facilitate the purchase decision, but often, it’s isolated from everything else they have to do on their journey.  They still have to provide the business case and justification for the total project.

To us, however, the Buying Journey is the single most important thing to us, and because of that mindset, we tend to think it’s the single most important thing to the customer.  We forget, it’s just a part of what they are concerned about in achieving their goals.

Customers don’t buy just for the sake of buying.  They buy because what they are buying is part of what they have to do to achieve their overall goal.  But their primary concern is doing all the things they have to do in that Journey to achieve their goal.

Having built this argument, it’s unlikely we will or even should participate or try to “help” in the entire Customer Journey.  We may not have the expertise or capability to contribute or create value in every aspect of that journey.  We certainly don’t have the time or may not want to take the time to participate in every part of the journey–and the customer probably doesn’t want us to.

But understanding where we fit, where the the customer Buying Journey that we participate in contributes to the overall Customer Journey, is critical to helping the customer on that journey.

If we are core to what they are trying to achieve, then we can help them in many areas of that buying journey.  We can help them identify things they may be missing, things they should improve on, things they may not know.  If you sell CRM systems, as an example, you probably are identifying issues around implementation and training–even though you may not provide those.  But what are you doing in advising them on adoption and compliance—probably one of the single biggest issues in CRM success.  It has little to do with what you sold, but everything to do with the Customer Journey and their goals.

Perhaps we are a very small part of what they are trying to do.  However important we try to make this part of their Buying Journey important, it never will be, nor should it be.  What should we do?

I spoke to a brilliant sales manager for a company that sells bathroom fixtures.  We were talking about a major deal (for them) in supplying fixtures for a brand new hotel.  Clearly, in the overall building design and the construction project, bathroom fixtures were a very small part of the customer’s concern.  This sales manager recognized this, adopting a strategy, “How can we take this off your plate?  You have so many other things to worry about, let us worry about this for you….”

Understanding the Customer Journey, not just their Buying Journey provides us a much richer context in which to understand what they are trying to achieve, understand where and how we create value, develop and execute strategies that help the customer on their Journey, not just with their buying.



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Win or a Double?

The Cardinals appear to beat the Reds 4-3 in the bottom of the ninth on a Yadier Molina double, who also homered earlier in the game. The Cardinals started celebrating, but the Reds want to challenge that the ball was a ground rule double and Matt Carpenter should have been held at third. It took a while for the Reds to challenge; the leftfielder never indicated it was a GRD. The Reds might have taken too long to challenge, and the PA just announced the game was over. We’ll see if there is a protest.

The Cardinals gain a half game on the Mets, and go into the final three games with a shot at the wild card. The Giants are just getting underway.



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The Rare Tie

The Cubs and Pirates played to an actual tie:

The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates played to the first tie game in the major leagues since 2005 when rain forced the teams to stop in the sixth inning Thursday night with the score 1-all.

The Cubs and Pirates aren’t scheduled to play again this season, and the game won’t be made up because it doesn’t affect postseason positioning. So instead of becoming a suspended game, the stats count and it was declared a tie – the first since Houston and Cincinnati went seven innings on June 30, 2005, before rain halted them.

In the days before stadium lighting, ties were very common. That is why you often teams playing 155 or 156 games in a 154 game season. Even with lights, rain sometimes washed out a tie game, as it did Thursday night. Those games were simply called ties, and the game was made up, as teams play to 162 decisions. A few years ago it was decided it would be better to suspend the game and finish at the next opportunity, so the tie had vanished until tonight.



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Tied at the Top

The Orioles beat the Blue Jays 4-0 behind 6 2/3 innings of one-hit ball by Ubaldo Jimenez. That puts the Blue Jays and Orioles into a tie for the two AL Wild Card positions, Toronto holding the tie-breaker as they won 10 of the 19 games head-to-head.

The Orioles win also knocks the Yankees and Astros out of wild card contention. It’s down to four teams, including the Tigers and Mariners. The Mariners start play against the Athletics in a few minutes and need to win to stay two games back.



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There’s God Coming Out of the Men’s Room

I think this David Ortiz worship has gotten a little out of hand.



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Disruption

One reason I like massive ties is that they have the ability to disrupt the playoffs. That was more true before the second wild card was introduced. With the extra days before the LDS starts, even a two day playoff to settle a three-way tie doesn’t really delay the LDS. The potential wild card teams just don’t get any days off.

The Tigers and Indians were rained out Thursday afternoon, however, and that provides a chance for disruption. For example, imagine Toronto wins the first wild card, while Baltimore and Seattle are tied for but Detroit is either 1/2 game up or out. Detroit would need to play Cleveland on Monday to decide if there is going to be a three-way, two-way, or no playoff for the wild card.

Seattle has the best head-to-head record among the three teams, so they would likely want to wait to play for the second game of a three-game playoff, so they only need to win one. So if the Tigers wound up tied after Monday, then they would play at Baltimore on Tuesday, then the winner of that game hosts the Mariners on Wednesday. The actual wild card game would be on Thursday, the day the ALDS was supposed to open.

So right now, I’m really rooting for a three-way tie between those teams.



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The Grey by Westland – Ultra Luxury West Point Grey Pre-Construction Residences

Epitome of Modern Elegance
The Grey is situated at the north end of Dunbar Village on West 16th Avenue, The homes in the neighbourhood are predominantly  single­-family. With this in mind, homes are designed to appeal to the luxuries and comforts of single­-family living. Designed by acclaimed IBI, the four­-storey building complements the historic neighbourhood with a composite of natural stone, metal panel, glass and concrete. The Grey is a timeless illustration of contemporary elegance.

Aerial perspective of Westland's The Grey.

The Grey will have a selection of two­-bedroom to three-­bedroom plus den homes, also included in the plans are penthouse ­level homes, and ground-level commercial space. Penthouses will have their own private rooftop balconies and many homes will benefit from large outdoor terraces.The Grey is located on the crest of Dunbar, north-facing homes will have amazing views of the water, North Shore mountains and Downtown Vancouver. All large homes will carry the Westland pedigree that can only be offered from an ultra ­luxury single­-family builder.

Pricing for The Grey
Details have not yet been released

Floor Plans for The Grey
All residences will consist of two or more bedrooms, including two 1,087 sq ft 2-bedroom suites, 18 2-bedroom + den homes from 1,132-1,353 sq ft, two 1,400 sq ft 3-bedroom condos, and seven penthouses from 911-3,500 sq ft.

Luxurious interiors at The Grey by Guo Interiors.

Superior Interiors

  • Two finely-crafted, custom colour palettes by Guo Interiors coordinate with your personal style
  • 9’ ceilings in living and bedroom areas visually expand the scope of each room
  • Wide-plank engineered hardwood flooring flows throughout the living and bedroom areas
  • Side-by-side washer and dryer laundry closets
  • Solid core doors in each room create additional privacy and security
  • Custom-designed built-in closets allow for plenty of room for organization of your possessions
  • Automated smart-home technology by Creston controls temperature and lighting through a sleek wall-mount keypad
  • Additional smart-home technology available through the Westland Design Centre
  • Tailor your home with our pre-selected options for customization and personalization at the Westland Design Centre

 

Open-plan kitchen concept for spacious living at The Grey.

Connoisseur Kitchens

  • Italian-imported, custom-stained oak veneer cabinets designed for the needs of the at-home chef
  • Oversized kitchens with islands
  • Renowned, state-of-the-art Gaggeneau appliances:
  • Multi-language options
    • 36” 5-burner gas cooktop with stainless steel high CFM hood fan
    • Stand-alone 24” integrated refrigerator column
    • Stand-alone 18” integrated freezer column
    • Built-in microwave
    • Built-in, ultra-quiet speed dishwasher
    • 24” handleless, automatic door-opening wall oven
  • Each home includes the option for a one-of-a kind culinary entertainment centre with an integrated pantry that features:
    • Gaggeneau coffee maker
    • Gaggeneau refrigerated wine column
    • Pull-out storage
    • Custom bar with mirrored wall and lit display shelving for your finest cognac
  • Custom-designed drawer and door organizers keep kitchen essentials in their place
  • Integrated soft-touch, self-close doors and drawers maintain a visually clean kitchen and minimize noise
  • Kitchens offer convenient under-cabinet task LED lighting for precision work
  • Easy-to-maintain solid quartz countertops with full-height quartz backsplash and marble-top island make a statement
  • European-designed, arched chrome Hans Grohe faucet

Show-Stopper Bathrooms

  • Italian-imported, wood veneer cabinets hover over exquisite tile floor
  • Master bathroom features:
    • Opulent free-standing tub enclosed within a stunning frameless glass bathing room
    • Flush-mount, custom-stained oak, mirrored medicine cabinets with built-in lighting and electrical outlets
    • Nu-heat flooring for year-round comfort
    • Pristine white countertops are paired with Hans Grohe wall-mount or free-standing faucets and fixtures
    • Oversized 5’-wide porcelain marble slab creates a spectacular bathing experience
  • Powder room features:
    • Exceptional oversized, three-sided vessel sink
    • Duravit wall-mounted lavatory
    • Sparking chrome Hans Grohe faucet

Developer Team for The Grey
Westland, a family company, was established in 2008. Since then, Westland has designed and built over 40 ultra-luxury custom homes in some of Vancouver’s most prestige neighbourhoods – Shaughnessy and Kerrisdale. Completely original, each of these custom homes have been meticulously designed to express the unique personality of the homeowner.

Expected Completion for The Grey
Sales start Fall/Winter 2016. Completion date is yet to be determined.

The post The Grey by Westland – Ultra Luxury West Point Grey Pre-Construction Residences appeared first on Vancouver New Condos.



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Games of the Day

Ryan Merritt makes his first major league start as the Indians try to stop Detroit’s wild card push. Daniel Norris takes the hill for the Tigers. Merritt is the ultimate ball in play pitcher. In his six innings in the majors, he walked none and struck out just two. In the minors, he also posted low walk and strikeout rates. He is a bit of a throw back in another regard; he does not throw hard, but changes speeds well and mixes in a slider and a cutter. He only allowed three hits so far. Norris pitched well down the stretch for the Tigers, posting a 3.26 ERA since the start of August. His 2-2 record is more a function of his not going deep in games.

The Orioles and Blue Jays play the rubber game of their wild card preview series in what might be a slugfest as Ubaldo Jimenez takes on Marcus Stroman. Jimenez does have a 2.86 ERA in September, having moved his strikeout and walk rates out of parity for the month. He allowed four home runs in 14 1/3 innings against the Jays, and 15 runs total. Stroman allowed four home runs in 16 innings against the Orioles this season, leading to 14 runs.

The Cardinals need a win to stay close in the NL Wild Card race. The Reds send Dan Straily against Alex Reyes. Straily has mixed results against St. Louis this season, allowing three home runs and nine walks in 14 2/3 innings, but just nine hits for a 2.45 ERA. The rookie Reyes allowing just one home run in 40 innings pitched.

Enjoy!



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Red Sox Clinch

It was a very strange night a Yankee Stadium on Wednesday. The Red Sox held a 3-0 lead against the Yankees when they found out they won the AL East, as the Orioles beat the Blue Jays. Boston brought on Craig Kimbrel to finish off the Yankees in the ninth, but Kimbrel could not get an out. After the third batter of the inning reached to load the bases, the infielders, led by Dustin Pedroia, went to the mound for a discussion. You could tell Pedroia was upset. They wanted to get the game over and celebrate. Kimbrel walked the next batter, bringing on Joe Kelly. Kelly got the next two batters without allowing a run, then gave up a magnificent home run to Mark Teixeira, and the Yankees won the game. I got the feeling the Red Sox wanted to rub the Yankees nose in the clinching, but they lost in such dramatic fashion they could not do that.

A division win is a division win, however, and the Red Sox played great down the stretch to go worst to first again. The offense was never in doubt, as Boston leads the AL in runs per game by 0.7 runs. They are in a class by themselves. If you look at the composite lineup, the only weak slot is the eighth hitter, exactly where the weak spot should be. This lineup came within 0.05 runs of optimum, and it’s almost impossible to create a bad lineup here.

The pitching was a problem however, bottoming out in June with a 4.88 ERA as Boston went 10-16 that month. They steadily improved since then, however, posting a 4.33 mark in July, 3.69 in August, and 2.96 so far in September. That led them to an 18-7 record this month, and the AL East title.

Congratulations to the Red Sox on an impressive win! They fixed their pitching problems and stopped wasting the offense. If the pitching holds up, like the shows of the Knights of the Round Table, they will be formidable in the post season.



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Massive Tie Scenarios

A possible three-way tie in the NL took a huge hit Wednesday night as the Mets won, but both the Giants and Cardinals lost. The three teams can tie at 86 wins tops:

NL Wild Card Tie Possibility
Team Record
Mets 1-2
Giants 3-1
Cardinals 4-0

 

There are only two combinations that can produce a tie, the one above and the one in which the three teams wind up with 85 wins. The probability of a three-way tie dropped from 0.0478 to 0.0186. There is still a chance of a tie between the Giants and Cardinals for the second slot, and that would result in a playoff game on Monday at St. Louis.

The five-team tie for two wild card slots is dead in the AL, but with the Blue Jays losing to Baltimore while Detroit and Seattle won, the four team tie is still possible, with a maximum of 88 wins:

AL Wild Card Tie Possibility
Team Record
Blue Jays 1-3
Orioles 2-2
Tigers 3-1
Mariners 4-0

 

There is still the possibility of a three-way tie for the two top slots, like in the NL.

AL Wild Card Tie Possibility
Team Record
Blue Jays 2-2
Orioles 3-1
Tigers 4-0

 

And a three-way tie for the second slot:

AL Wild Card Tie Possibility
Team Record
Orioles 2-2
Tigers 3-1
Mariners 4-0

With the Orioles, Tigers, and Mariners separated by two games for the second wild card slot, and all their games independent, there is a 0.0352 probability of those teams tying for the second slot. The most likely outcome would be the Mariners going 3-1, the Tigers going 2-2, and the Orioles going 1-3.

Note that the Yankees and Astros are not quite out of it yet. The Yankees need to win tonight while Baltimore loses, then sweep the Orioles to force a tie between those two teams. The would also need bad weekends from Detroit, Seattle, and Houston.

Here are the best outcomes for Thursday:

  • The Tigers beat the Indians.
  • The Orioles defeat the Blue Jays.
  • The Cardinals defeat the Reds.
  • The Mariners defeat the Athletics.
  • The Giants defeat the Rockies.


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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.326 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robbie Ray
0.326 — Trea Turner batting against Robbie Ray
0.306 — Paulo Orlando batting against Kyle Gibson
0.303 — Jean Segura batting against Joe Ross
0.295 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Kyle Gibson
0.291 — Robinson Cano batting against Kendall Graveman
0.290 — Wilson Ramos batting against Robbie Ray
0.290 — Mookie Betts batting against CC Sabathia
0.289 — Devon Travis batting against Ubaldo Jimenez
0.288 — Corey Seager batting against Christian Friedrich
0.287 — Whit Merrifield batting against Kyle Gibson
0.285 — Jose Ramirez batting against Daniel Norris

This is a top 12 list, as a few of the players are active but hurt, especially Murphy, Cain, and Travis.

The NN produces this list:

0.326, 0.758 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robbie Ray.
0.326, 0.752 — Trea Turner batting against Robbie Ray.
0.290, 0.728 — Mookie Betts batting against CC Sabathia.
0.283, 0.728 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.288, 0.727 — Corey Seager batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.306, 0.725 — Paulo Orlando batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.289, 0.724 — Devon Travis batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.303, 0.723 — Jean Segura batting against Joe Ross.
0.284, 0.718 — Dustin Pedroia batting against CC Sabathia.
0.295, 0.715 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.291, 0.715 — Robinson Cano batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.276, 0.711 — Starling Marte batting against Rob Zastryzny.

Turner and Bets look like the best bets so far.

The NN with park factored in produces this list:

0.326, 0.760 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robbie Ray.
0.326, 0.755 — Trea Turner batting against Robbie Ray.
0.290, 0.731 — Mookie Betts batting against CC Sabathia.
0.283, 0.730 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.288, 0.730 — Corey Seager batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.306, 0.730 — Paulo Orlando batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.303, 0.728 — Jean Segura batting against Joe Ross.
0.289, 0.727 — Devon Travis batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.284, 0.723 — Dustin Pedroia batting against CC Sabathia.
0.295, 0.721 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.291, 0.719 — Robinson Cano batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.276, 0.716 — Starling Marte batting against Rob Zastryzny.

Remember, you best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!



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Thursday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Fear And Loathing: The Sales And Marketing Technology Stacks

As many of us prepare to descend on Dreamforce 2016, I look at it with some trepidation.  Not the event, it’s fantastic, I see a lot of old friends, meet new people, and learn a huge amount.

It seems Dreamforce has become the magnet for all the sales and marketing automation suppliers to trot out their shiny new toys and releases, enticing us to buy.  I have dozens of people reaching out, wanting to introduce me to their latest greatest technologies oriented at helping sales and marketing professionals.

The goal of all these systems is, theoretically, to help sales and marketing professionals.  They help us be more productive, more efficient, more effective, more informed, manage our time better……

People will talk endlessly about the sales stack (all the tools we are providing sales people to “help” them), or the marketing stack.

Each vendor will make their case–at their booths, in sessions at Dreamforce, or the dozens of “private sessions” that surround the event.

They’ll present compelling data:  “81% of top performers use our tools,” making you think the reason they are top performers is because they use the tools.  Other data points will be, “Increase quota performance….”  “Increase customer engagement…” “Increase velocity/volume…” “Be better informed…”  “Provide deeper insights….”  “Fill your pipelines…” “Compress your cycles…..” “Win more….” on and on.  They are always supported by compelling data and they are want to convince us this tool added to our sales and marketing stacks will be the tool that enables each of us to make our and exceed our numbers.

There will be a lot of chest puffing and strutting in discussions about “sales and marketing stacks.”  Basically these are versions of “mine is bigger than yours.”  We all know bigger is better  ( I keep trying to argue size doesn’t matter…..but that’s another thing).

These discussions should strike fear, and perhaps loathing, in the hearts and minds of sales/marketing management and professionals.

In the spirit of “helping,” think of what we are inflicting on our people and organizations.

A “modern” sales stack will probably have a CRM system as the core system of record.  It will have all it’s own modules and tools to supplement the core functions.  But then we layer endless tools on top of the CRM system or as a complement to them:

I’ll just provide a short list:

  • Marketing automation and content management
  • Lead gen, demand gen, lead management
  • Email and messaging
  • Research tools, company, market, industry, individual reasearch and preparation
  • Dialers, call management, call recording, call monitoring, reporting
  • Scripting tools
  • Proposal generation
  • Configuration management/pricing
  • Meeting management, web conferencing, video, webinar, podcasting
  • Collaboration
  • Contracting and e-signature
  • Sales enablement, elearning, ecoaching
  • Demo
  • Note taking
  • Time management
  • Route/Travel planning
  • Pipeline management
  • Account and territory management
  • Presentation
  • Prospecting
  • Referral
  • Customer survey/feedback
  • Analysis and planning tools
  • Tools that measure things
  • Reporting, Dashboards to fit every application and need.
  • Storytelling
  • Expense management
  • Contest/gamification/compensation management
  • Diagramming/process flow/project management
  • Cloud based storage tools
  • Workflow management
  • List building, data scrubbing, data cleansing, de-duplication
  • Social media and networking, blogging, authoring
  • Security/networking/VPN
  • Intranet/”the J disk”/internal websites/microsites
  • Order entry/management/tracking
  • And let’s not forget the Microsoft (or equivalent) foundation of Outlook, Word, PowerPoint, and Excel.

The “Martech” stack alone has 3874 marketing technology solutions in close to 50 categories!  Sales people have to deal with Martech, Sales, and other stacks.

We can’t forget there are mobile, web, and premise based combinations and permutations of all of this.

And all of these are aimed at making sales and marketing professionals more effective!!!

The joke used to be, “We are here from corporate and we want to help.”  Now it’s, “We have great technology solutions and we are here to help!”

Then layer on top of all this the fact that since we have invested in these tools, since we want to leverage their ability to “help” sales people, we now start paying attention to compliance.  So we start measuring people on the use of these tools.

Don’t get me wrong.  In reality I’m a geek.  I love technology and leverage it as much as I can—as long as it helps.  I look at the tools that people present to me, each is fascinating and most can provide huge benefit.

But think about the poor sales or marketing professional suffering under this load.  Think of all the different systems they need to learn, all the different functions.  Imagine them trying to remember, “Which tool do I use for this, and which do I use for that?”  Or, “I have to enter some of the data here, and more data there.”

With the average number of tools being inflicted on our sales people, it’s no wonder sales people are overwhelmed, overloaded, and confused.  While these tools are supposed to free up time for people to sell, it’s not surprising to see time available for selling plummeting.  (It’s also not surprising to see people using the tools as an excuse not to get in front of customers.)

Sales operations, sales enablement, and sales management need to be very attentive to the cognitive overload and the unintended consequences that are happening with these ever increasing and more specialized applications.  We need to seriously consider that possibly less is more.  Perhaps we free up time and brain power to let sales people think and execute.

The concept of the sales and marketing stack should inspire fear, concern, and perhaps loathing in every sales professional.  We need to start getting back to basics, we need to make sure our people understand and consistently execute the basics, we need to radically simplify, giving people the time and freedom to do their jobs.

Yes, automation and technology can be very powerful.  But in too many cases, we have passed the point where the unintended consequences of continuing to build the sales and marketing stacks are actually reducing productivity and effectiveness.

On that note, for those of you attending, enjoy Dreamforce.  I’ll be among the crowds and will be looking at the new technologies, but very cautiously.

 

 



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Kim Kong

Hyun Soo Kim pinch hits in the ninth for the Orioles with a man on first base, and hits his sixth home run of the season. That turns a 2-1 Blue Jays lead into a 3-2 Orioles lead as the teams battle for the wild card.

Watching the replay, it looked like Kim closed his eyes as he contacted the ball.

If the Blue Jays lose or the Red Sox win, Toronto is out of contention for the AL East title. The Red Sox lead the Yankees 3-0 in the ninth.



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Avenue One by Concord Pacific – 247 Opulent Southeast False Creek Pre-Construction Condos

 

Concord Pacific, have come together with GBL Architects, They have designed a stunning 17-storey residential building in booming Southeast False Creek. This very attractive location is overlooking Hinge Park, Habitat Island, and the waters of False Creek. Avenue One highlights the enjoyment of the outdoors with open north-facing balconies, water features and green roofs. If you enjoy an active lifestyle, Avenue One is the one.

 

 

Avenue One north elevation rendering.

Becoming a home owner at Avenue One, you join a master-planned community designed to conveniently meet your everyday needs. Located close-by are various professional services and shops such as Urban Fare, London Drugs pharmacy and Terra Breads bakery cafe. For an evening out there is a selection of breweries, cafes, pubs, restaurants, and taphouses all within walking distance of you own neighbourhood. This area also offers the stunning seawall for jogging, cycling, False Creek for watersports and the facilities at the Creekside Community Recreation Centre. Follow the avenue to livability at Avenue One.

 

Aerial view of Area One's Southeast False Creek location.

 

Rendering of Avenue One's podium.

 

Developer Team for Avenue One
Concord Pacific is a residential and commercial real estate investment and development firm formed in 1987 to develop Concord Pacific Place on the former Expo Lands in downtown Vancouver. Since then, Concord has completed over 100 residential and mixed use buildings with more than 50 in various stages of planning and development. Over the past 25 years, the Concord Group of companies has also grown into other industry sectors, including software and information technology, telecommunications, as well as green energy projects in solar, wind, and hydroelectric power generation.

Pricing for Avenue One

Contact for Details

Expected Completion for Avenue One
2019.

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Five More Years! Five More Years!

The Cubs extended the contract of Theo Epstein five years, as his current five year deal was about to expire.

Epstein, who turns 43 in December, inherited a Cubs franchise that had missed out on the postseason three consecutive years. His first full season at the helm saw the team bottom out at 61-101, the franchise’s highest loss total since 1966, before the rebound began. He now presides over a group that has already cleared the 100-win barrier in the final week of the regular season and has been MLB’s best throughout 2016.

Boston ownership wanted the team to win every year, because they needed a full Fenway Park and high TV ratings to pay the tremendous debt they incurred to buy the club. Esptein, after winning in 2004, wanted to dial back and build long term, which led to his temporarily leaving the Red Sox. With the Cubs, he was able to institute a plan from the beginning. It looks like his front office assembled a team that is young, and therefore cost controlled, that can win for a number of years. The Cubs are where the Yankees were in 1996. I suspect the best is yet to come from this group.



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Watching Baseball

Local baseball broadcasts do very well in their markets.

The data from Nielsen NLSN +0.30% that covers the 29 U.S. clubs in the league from April 3-Sept 25 shows that nine clubs had the No. 1 ranking across all TV networks in prime time (Royals, Tigers, Orioles, Pirates, Indians, Red Sox, Mariners, and Giants). More than half the league (16 out of 29) saw them rank in the top 3 across all television networks . Out of the 29 clubs charted, 24, or 83% of the league saw the No. 1 rated programming in primetime on just cable over the course of the season.

Overall, for the 29 clubs, ratings were up 1% over last year’s data of the 29 U.S. teams. Fifteen of the 29 saw ratings increases over their prime time ratings in 2015.

There is plenty of room for improvement, as two of the clubs that did not do well, the Dodgers and the Yankees, are in disputes with local providers and were not carried on all systems. If the Dodgers and Yankees get full coverage next season, these numbers will increase even more.



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Astros on the Brink

The Mariners defeat the Astros 12-4 on Wednesday afternoon, pushing Houston to the brink of wild card extinction. Houston can no longer win the top wild card slot, and if the Orioles win this evening, the best the Astros could do is a tie for second. Before the Orioles game, Houston finds itself three games out with just three games to play. It will be very difficult to pass all three teams in front of them.

The Mariners move to 1 1/2 games behind Baltimore, and have to hope that the Blue Jays and Yankees give them some help against the Orioles, and the Indians and Braves give them some help against the Tigers. The Mariners finish with a four-game series at home against the Athletics.



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The Parker by Townline – 49 Cambie Corridor Pre-Construction Luxury Residences

Townline has announced their newest WestSide community, The Parker is a stunning 6-storey building coming soon to Vancouver’s very popular Oakridge neighbourhood. This boutique development consists of 49 luxury residences which will include air-conditioning. There will be a selection of one,two,and three-bedroom homes featuring thoughtfully-planned gourmet kitchens, spa-inspired bathrooms, high-end interior finishes, and appealing outdoor living spaces.

The Parker south elevation rendering.

 

The Parker is going to be situated on the corner of West 41st Avenue and Elizabeth Street, The Parker is conveniently tucked back from the bustle of the Cambie Corridor while still providing immediate access to nearby amenities. Oakridge Centre will be nearby providing shopping and stores for groceries at Kin’s Farmers Market and Safeway. Just across the street you will be able to find the ideal wines for entertaining at Vancouver’s largest Signature BC Liquor Store. Queen Elizabeth Park’s beautiful manicured gardens are located just a few minutes away. Also the very accessible Canada Line will bring you downtown to enjoy its endless entertainment offerings. It’s all yours at The Parker.

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Sweet Jesus

Jesus Sucre is on the verge of a short but special season. The Mariners catcher is currently 12 for 25 on the season, a .480 BA. In 1957, Bob Hazle hit .403 in 134 at bats, the most AB for a .400 batting average since Ted Williams in 1941. Since Hazle, 32 batters hit .400 with at least 25 at bats, about one every other season. Very few have come close to the .480 mark, however. Rudy Pemberton hit .512 in 1996 in 41 AB, maybe the most remarkable post Hazle batting average. Cameron Maybin went 16 for 32 in 2008. Craig Wilson hit .468 with 47 AB in 1998 as an old rookie. (He went 11 for 18 against LHP.) Sucre can go 0 for 5 and still hit .400 for the season.

On a side note, an earlier comment today pointed out that Joey Votto hit .400 in his last 77 games. Votto owns one of the highest BABIP among active players, and I’ve thought for a while that he could hit .400 if he reduced his strikeouts. During this stretch, he is striking out once every 6.75 at bats. For his career, he strikes out once every 4.47 at bats. It was Miguel Cabrera reducing his Ks that bumped up his batting average and allowed him to win a triple crown. Maybe Votto will take this to the next level and hit .400 for a season.



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Games of the Day

The Mariners send James Paxton against the Astros and Doug Fister as both teams try to stay alive in the AL Wild Card race. Paxton allowed eight runs in 12 innings against Houston this year. Fister allowed 16 runs in 21 innings against Seattle. It may be the slugfest of the day.

The Red Sox try to clinch the AL East for the second day in a row as Clay Buchholz takes on the Yankees and Bryan Mitchell. Buchholz pitched well in three of his last four starts, and seems to be moving in the right direction. Opponents are hitting .329/.388/.466 against Mitchell in a small sample size of at bats in 2016.

Chris Tillman and Francisco Liriano square off as the Blue Jays and Orioles continue their series in Toronto. Tillman’s ERA is about one and a half runs lower on the road. Liriano allowed seven home runs in 43 innings since joining the Blue Jays.

Enjoy!



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Good News on Kluber

It looks like Corey Kluber‘s injury is mild enough to allow him to pitch in the ALDS:

The Indians say his timetable for returning to game activity is a week to 10 days, which could force the AL Central champions to delay his first playoff start. Cleveland’s first playoff game is Oct. 6.

It’s another blow for the Indians, who are already missing starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar.

“It’s obviously not the best possible news, but it is a heck of a lot better than it could have been,” manager Terry Francona said. “This will give him a chance to rest up and hopefully throw a couple bullpens. In the long run, that could help him.”

With luck he can pitch game three.



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Massive Tie Scenarios

The Cardinals, Giants and Mets all won Wednesday night, and in an amazing coincidence, all scored exactly 12 runs. The three teams can tie at 87 wins tops:

NL Wild Card Tie Possibility
Team Record
Mets 3-1
Giants 4-1
Cardinals 5-0

 

Since none of the teams play head-to-head, the calculation of probabilities is straight forward. Assuming these are intrinsically .530 teams, the total probability of a three-way tie rose to 0.0478. The most likely outcome for a tie has the Cardinals going 4-1, with the Giants 3-2, and Mets going 2-2. That has a probability of 0.0236.

In the AL, the Astros beat the Mariners, and the Orioles lost the one game they could afford to lose to the Blue Jays. Detroit took advantage of Cleveland’s post clinch rest day for a big win. The five way tie is still a possibility, but an extremely long shot.

AL Wild Card Tie Possibility
Team Record
Blue Jays 0-5
Orioles 2-3
Tigers 3-2
Mariners 4-1
Astros 4-0

 

If the Blue Jays win or the Astros lose, the five-way tie is over.

There is still the possibility of a three-way tie for the two top slots, like in the NL.

AL Wild Card Tie Possibility
Team Record
Blue Jays 2-3
Orioles 4-1
Tigers 5-0

 

The Orioles need to win the next two games against the Blue Jays to make this a real possibility.

With the Orioles, Tigers, and Mariners separated by two games for the second wild card slot, and all their games independent, there is a 0.0336 probability of those teams tieing for the second slot. The most likely outcome would be the Mariners going 4-1, the Tigers going 3-2, and the Orioles going 2-3.

Here are the best outcomes for Wednesday:

  • The Mariners claim victory over the Astros. While the Astros might keep the five-way tie alive, a Seattle win makes some kind of massive tie more likely.
  • The Orioles defeat the Blue Jays.
  • The Tigers beat the Indians.
  • The Mets fall to the Marlins.
  • The Cardinals defeat the Reds.
  • The Giants can win or lose against the Rockies. If the Mets lose and the Cardinals win, a Giants loss would make the three teams even in the AFILC.


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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.349 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo
0.347 — Trea Turner batting against Shelby Miller
0.347 — Daniel Murphy batting against Shelby Miller
0.328 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton
0.325 — Jose Peraza batting against Mike Leake
0.322 — Ender Inciarte batting against Adam Morgan
0.314 — Brandon Phillips batting against Mike Leake
0.313 — Josh Reddick batting against Luis Perdomo
0.312 — Andrew Toles batting against Luis Perdomo
0.311 — Adrian Gonzalez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.310 — Mookie Betts batting against Bryan Mitchell
0.310 — Freddie Freeman batting against Adam Morgan

Freddie Freeman makes the list as his 29-game hit streak raised his BA to .307 for the season. He does walk quite a bit, which diminishes the chances of him getting a hit in a game.

The NN produces this list:

0.347, 0.766 — Daniel Murphy batting against Shelby Miller.
0.328, 0.765 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton.
0.349, 0.761 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.347, 0.760 — Trea Turner batting against Shelby Miller.
0.310, 0.737 — Mookie Betts batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.296, 0.735 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.322, 0.731 — Ender Inciarte batting against Adam Morgan.
0.306, 0.730 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.325, 0.728 — Jose Peraza batting against Mike Leake.
0.314, 0.727 — Brandon Phillips batting against Mike Leake.
0.293, 0.718 — Robinson Cano batting against Doug Fister.

Daniel Murphy is still hurt.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.347, 0.767 — Daniel Murphy batting against Shelby Miller.
0.349, 0.765 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.328, 0.764 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton.
0.347, 0.762 — Trea Turner batting against Shelby Miller.
0.310, 0.740 — Mookie Betts batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.296, 0.739 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.322, 0.738 — Ender Inciarte batting against Adam Morgan.
0.325, 0.735 — Jose Peraza batting against Mike Leake.
0.306, 0.733 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.314, 0.732 — Brandon Phillips batting against Mike Leake.
0.293, 0.722 — Robinson Cano batting against Doug Fister.

Corey Seager and Trea Turner appear to be the consensus picks. Your best picks will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!



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Wednesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Managers, How Are You Investing Your Time?

I couldn’t believe what I was hearing on the phone.  It was a frustrated sales person looking for help.

She had reached out after reading some blogs, asking me to be a sounding board for some deals she was struggling with.  We spent some time talking about the deals, exploring what she might do to better position herself to win.  At the end of the conversation, I asked, “Have you sat down with your manager to review this and get his advice?

She responded that she had tried to.  “He’s always very busy and just doesn’t seem to have the time to help me on these things.”

Curious, I asked, “What kind of coaching do you get from your manager?  How much time does he spend with you?”

She responded,  “We have a formal 1 on 1 about once a month for an hour.  I do talk to him most every day, but usually he’s just checking the status of things.  He’s asking where we are on deals, what the competition is, and when we can get an order.  Pipeline reviews are usually focused around what we are going to forecast.  We do have a monthly team meeting, but usually it’s each of us giving brief updates on what’s going on.  He’ll usually talk about where we need to be at to make the numbers.”

I probed a little further, “So you really get at most an hour of coaching a month?”  She replied, “Well, it’s pretty one way.  Usually, he’s telling me what I should be doing to maximize my numbers.  I really don’t get much coaching or learn much from him.”

Aghast at what I was hearing, I probed further, “How many people does the manager have reporting to him?  Is he doing the same with everyone else?  How does he spend his time?”

Her responses were, “Besides me, there are 6 other people on our team, he seems to have the same approach with each of us.  I really don’t know how he spends his time.  He seems to be in the office a lot, the last time he went on a customer call was 6 months ago……”

As you know, my mind starts quickly running through the numbers.  Assuming a 40 hour week (I don’t know anyone that actually spends that little time doing their job–I think of 40 hour work weeks as “part time jobs.”), he has roughly 160 working hours in the month.   If I’m generous and he spends 90 minutes with each person on the monthly one on one’s, he’s spending roughly 10.5 hours a month coaching.  Let me be generous and say he has a monthly 4.5 hour team meeting (granted, sounds like there is little coaching/development.), so he’s spending roughly 15 hours a month coaching and developing his people.

What’s he doing with the other 145 hours of his time?

Undoubtedly, it, he’s in a lot of “important” internal meetings, doing a lot of analysis and reporting, but how does that take 145 hours each month?

Yes, he was “spending time” every day with his people, usually it consisted of getting status updates and telling them what to do.  While he may have thought that was coaching, it’s not.  He wasn’t doing anything to improve the performance and capabilities of his people.  Largely, they were left to figuring it out themselves.

“Is your team making the numbers?”  I asked.

She responded, “I’m a little ahead of YTD plan.  I think I’ll do it, but I struggling and need help in some areas—that’s part of the reason I’m calling you.  A couple of my teammates are in similar positions, they’ll probably make plan or close to it.  The other 4 are going to miss by a wide margin.  They are good people, but they’re struggling.  I don’t have time to help them, but they need help and they aren’t getting it from management.”

“Morale on the team is pretty bad, our manager just is focused on the numbers and is always hammering on us to do better,” she added.  “We’re trying, but we need help, he doesn’t seem interested in helping us.”

I wish I were making this story up.  Unfortunately, I hear variants of this every week.

I’ve no doubt that managers are investing the hours in working, it’s just how they are investing the hours.  As you dive into where they invest their time, a lot is doing analysis and reporting.  Some of this is self inflicted–they feel if they just keep looking at the data in different ways, the answer to making the numbers will pop out magically.

Others have the analysis and reporting requirements imposed on them by higher levels of management–in and out of sales.  Probably one of the worst cases I’ve ever seen is the US subsidiary of a Japanese company being required to provide pipeline updates every 2 hours during November and December.  This division sold high end B2B solutions, with sales cycles in excess of 12 months.  The pipeline wasn’t going to change much in two hours—or even a week.  In this case, the parent company was a consumer packaged good company.  November and December was the period when those products were flying off store shelves, so very frequent forecast and pipeline updates might have made sense for those products—but not for their B2B division.

Then there are the endless “important” internal meetings, covering important topics, like, “Who should be the keynote speaker at the national sales meeting,” or “how do we get our sales people to give us more accurate reports,” or “here are the latest strategies of the corporation.” or, “should we buy this app that allows our sales people to update CRM from smart watches and fitbits?”   Those meetings seem important, executives from many parts of the company may be involved.  It’s cool to rub shoulders with senior management talking about future strategies.  But it diverts you away from your people.

There are some internal things that add value to sales.  Running interference for them, getting things done internally, getting them resources they need to do their jobs. Even some of the internal meetings are necessary.

But front line managers need to get their priorities and time allocation right.

The job is to maximize the performance of each person on the team.  If they don’t do that, they won’t make their numbers.

The ways we maximize performance of people on the team is working directly with them—every day.  Coaching them on deal strategies, calls, prospecting, account/territory plans, weekly time blocking, pipelines.  Being in the field or on the phones helping them in customer situations.  Your single highest priority is working directly with your people.  At least 50% of your time needs to be dedicated to working with them–coaching, teaching, collaborating, discovering–not telling.

The next 25% of your time needs to be spent getting things done for your people.  Getting them resources, support, getting approval, removing internal barriers and roadblocks.  Your investment in this frees them up to be with customers.

The next 25% of your time needs to be divided in three ways:  At least half of it needs to be unscheduled.  You don’t know what crises will come up.  If you schedule 100% of your time, you have no buffer or flexibility. Consequently, interuptions and crises will destroy your schedule.  The rest of that 25% will be the inevitable, but necessary internal meetings.

The next 25% of your time can be spent on planning, analyzing, doing reports.  No, my math isn’t wrong, I know I have scheduled 125% of your time–suck it up.  Your a manager and this isn’t a 40 hours/week job.  The time you spend for planning, analyzing, and doing reports is after hours and on weekends.  The business day has to be focused on your people.

The final 25% of your time needs to be spent investing in your own development.  Reading, attending courses, learning, keeping yourself up to date with the business, markets, customers, and your profession.  If you aren’t continually learning, you will become a dinosaur–useless to your people, useless to the company, and useless to yourself.

You’re probably shrieking, I’ve had the audacity to schedule 150% of your time.  If you are counting the hours, we’re at least up to 60 hours a week.  That’s tough.  You chose this job, it takes a lot of time.  If you aren’t committed to putting in the time, you shouldn’t be a sales manager.

Yeah, I know there are some trade offs–trade off the time you spend in reports and analysis.  There are plenty of tools that reduce the amount of time you need to spend doing this.  Understand the few key indicators or KPIs that are most critical to keeping things on track.  Don’t spend as much time in meetings.  We hate them anyway because so little is accomplished, so why go in the first place.

When you’re making those tradeoffs on time investment, there is one you cannot change, at least 50% of your time is spent with your people.  Anything less, they will fail, causing you to fail.



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Division Another Day

The Red Sox fall to the Yankees 6-4, ending their winning streak at 11. The Blue Jays beat the Orioles 5-1, and Toronto closes to five games on the Red Sox with five to play. If the Yankees can manage to sweep the Red Sox, and Toronto can sweep the Orioles, the final series between the Red Sox and Blue Jays will be meaningful, as the Jays could sweep to force a tie-breaker game on Monday.

The Orioles fall two-games behind the Blue Jays in the wild card race. With the Tigers winning 12-0 over Cleveland, Detroit moves to one game behind Baltimore.



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Poorly Timed Injury

Wilson Ramos tore his ACL at the worst possible time for him. Not only does he miss the playoffs, but since he is opting for free agency, teams are going to be a little less likely to give him a long term contract or lots of money. He had a great season, but his free agent dollars may be going down.



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Too Early?

Given the 10:40 AM update in this Jose Fernandez crash investigation post, I believe there is a double entendre at the end of the 2:15 PM update.



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The Only Sales Guide You’ll Ever Need

What would happen if you locked a leading self help expert and a sales expert in a room, challenging them to write a book?  No, I’m not setting you up for a line like, “How many self help gurus does it take to screw in a light bulb,” or “What do you call 100 sales thought leaders sitting at the bottom of the ocean?”

I’m actually quite serious.  Think of your favorite self help expert.  Perhaps Stephen Covey, Tony Robbins, Napoleon Hill, Tim Ferris, James Altucher, or anyone else.  Think of some of your favorite sales thought leaders, Dale Carnegie, Jill Konrath, Linda Richardson, Miller/Heiman, Mike Weinberg, Jeb Blount or dozens of others.

Then consider the book that results from the collaboration.

It would probably be different from most other sales books you read.  Most of them, talk about skills in being a sales person.  They may focus on certain aspects of selling, like questioning, prospecting, objection handling, closing, negotiating, selling against competition, creating/articulating value.

It would be different from most of the self help books focus.  They focus on things like, what makes you tick, how to establish goals for yourself, your life.  How to commit to those,the importance of mindset, what it takes to live a rich life. How to be a better person.

But a book written by a collaboration of these two different types of authors would be different.  It would certainly contain a lot of self help perspectives—but from a sales person’s point of view.  So it would cover things like self discipline, optimism, caring, competitiveness, resourcefulness, initiative, persistence, communication, accountability, and mindset.  It would approach these important personal development areas in terms that are meaningful to being a sales professional.

But the book wouldn’t stop there, because the attributes of being a sales professional are useless unless you execute in the best way possible.  So the book would continue on with how top sales professionals execute.  It might cover things like, closing, prospecting, storytelling, diagnosing, negotiating, creating value, building consensus/managing change, creating competitive differentiation.

A book that results from this collaboration would integrate the aspects of being a sales professional and executing as one.

That’s just the book that Anthony Iannarino has written with The Only Sales Guide You’ll Ever Need Anthony’s book bridges that gap, self help—all of us look to those to improve who we are, and sales skills—to produce a unique book for sales professionals.

Will it be The Only Sales Guide You’ll Ever Need?  Absolutely, not!  Otherwise, Anthony wouldn’t be writing a follow on, and many other sales authors wouldn’t be praising his work.  Duuggghhh!

But it’s a great starting point for any new sales professional.  It’s a great book for experienced sales people seeking to re-ground and refocus themselves, continuing to improve their practice as sales professionals.



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It Never Gets Easier

Never Gets Easier

Earlier this month, I wrote an article about the suck that is felt when pushing yourself through a challenging workout. There is no other way to describe the feeling that’s experienced when pushing yourself beyond your comfort zone. To put it bluntly, it sucks. There is no joy, just an ample dose of physical and mental anguish.

Following my recent article about the suck, one reader left a comment that warrants more attention. It’s packed full of truth and is certainly worthy of a follow up discussion. First, you can read the comment below and then I’ll share my own thoughts.

“It’s not all transcendental feelings of joy, epiphanies, and self-satisfaction. The pain needs to be acknowledged without self-censorship. It is there, and when you reach a high level of fitness, it doesn’t go away. In fact, it sometimes gets worse–because you can endure it for a longer period of time.”

Accept Reality

Speaking as a coach, I’ve never been one to mince words. I don’t sugarcoat anything in the gym. If I’m training you, you will know exactly how I feel. You’re going to get the truth whether you want it or not. And one of the first truths I tell my athletes is that no matter how bad it is on day one, it never gets any easier. It will always be tough. Whatever sucks today will probably suck tomorrow, next month, next year, and forever.

Training to become the best isn’t supposed to be easy or enjoyable. The joy comes after the fact. You are welcome to take pride in your work and celebrate your success, but never be fooled to believe that the process itself is supposed to be fun. Hard work is supposed to be hard. That’s it. If it was easy, everyone would do it.

A Recent Example

Earlier this week, I took an Olympic athlete out for a steep, mountainous run. I don’t think either one of us enjoyed a single step of the session. It’s one of those workouts that is difficult from start to finish, or as we would say, it just plain sucks. There’s no other way to describe it.

Ironically, I took another Olympic athlete out to run the exact same course over 15 years ago. It sucked that day just as much as it sucked yesterday. Nothing has changed in that regard. It was difficult then, it’s difficult now, and it will continue to be for as long we run it.

It doesn’t matter when I run the mountain, it will always be tough. And it’s not just difficult because it is steep. More importantly, it’s difficult because I’m always going to push myself to do the best that I can.

Therefore, even though I might run faster today than I did 15 years ago, I’m still pushing myself to the best of my ability. That doesn’t change whether I’ve become a better runner or not. As long as I do the best that I can, I’ll always be challenged.

When you give everything you have, it doesn’t matter what you started with. You still have nothing left when you’re finished. That holds true whether you are a beginner or a seasoned professional. If never feels easy to give everything you’ve got.

Final Thoughts

I’m not writing this article to suggest that we don’t have fun in the gym. As hard as we work, there’s certainly times when we joke around and have fun. I hope that this entry doesn’t suggest otherwise.

The real point that I’d like to convey is that hard work will always be hard. It’s not supposed to be easy. And while that might sound like common sense, I’m always amazed at how many athletes have been fooled to believe otherwise. They actually believe the work is supposed to get easier. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work that way.

The goal isn’t for the work to become easier, but rather for you to become better. That only happens when you continue to work. Just because what was hard last year is easier today doesn’t mean that the work has gotten easier. It simply highlights the fact that you’ve improved, thus need to work harder.

The sooner you recognize this simple fact, the sooner you’ll stop chasing a fantasy. Hard work will always be hard. Don’t be turned off by this simple truth. Instead, you should learn to embrace it. Know that by continuing to push yourself, you’ll continue to push yourself beyond mediocrity.

That’s all I need to know to keep enduring the suck.

+++++

“You have come into a hard world. I know of only one easy place in it, and that is the grave.” – Henry Ward Beecher

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