Massive Tie Scenario

A possible three-way tie in the NL did well Thursday night as both the Cardinals and Giants won, gaining on the idle Mets. The three teams can tie at 86 wins tops:

NL Wild Card Tie Possibility

Team	Record
Mets	1-2
Giants	2-1
Cardinals	3-0

 

There are only two combinations that can produce a tie, the one above and the one in which the three teams wind up with 85 wins. The probability of a three-way tie rose from 0.0186 to 0.0352. There is still a chance of a tie between the Giants and Cardinals for the second slot, and that would result in a playoff game on Monday at St. Louis.

The Orioles beat the Blue Jays to gain a tie atop the AL Wild Card race, while the Mariners won as well. Detroit and Cleveland were postponed, putting a Monday makeup wrinkle into the massive tie scenario. A four-way tie still works at 88 wins:

AL Wild Card Tie Possibility

Team	Record
Blue Jays	1-2
Orioles	1-2
Tigers	3-1
Mariners	3-0

 

The probability of this scenario is 0.00769.

There are numerous possibilities for three-way ties as well, for the top two slots or for the second wild card slot. Three teams tying for the second wild card slot would be the most disruptive of the playoffs.

AL Wild Card Tie Possibility, three teams tying for two slots.

Team	Record
Blue Jays	2-1
Orioles	2-1
Tigers	4-0

 

This scenario has a probability of 0.0514.

And a three-way tie for the second slot:

AL Wild Card Tie Possibility

Team	Record
Orioles or Toronto	1-2
Tigers	3-1
Mariners	3-0

The probability of either of theses scenarios is 0.0354, but there are two of them.

Note that rain isn’t finished trying to make a mess of the post-season picture. It is supposed to rain the next three days in Boston. The Blue Jays could wind up with a double header on Sunday and a makeup game on Monday.

The best outcomes for Friday:

• The Orioles fall to the Yankees.
• The Mets lose to the Phillies.
• The Blue Jays suffer defeat at the hands of the Red Sox.
• The Tigers defeat the Braves.
• The Cardinals beat the Pirates.
• The Mariners win against the Athletics.
• The Giants defeat the Dodgers.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2dcrfYK