Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.349 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo
0.347 — Trea Turner batting against Shelby Miller
0.347 — Daniel Murphy batting against Shelby Miller
0.328 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton
0.325 — Jose Peraza batting against Mike Leake
0.322 — Ender Inciarte batting against Adam Morgan
0.314 — Brandon Phillips batting against Mike Leake
0.313 — Josh Reddick batting against Luis Perdomo
0.312 — Andrew Toles batting against Luis Perdomo
0.311 — Adrian Gonzalez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.310 — Mookie Betts batting against Bryan Mitchell
0.310 — Freddie Freeman batting against Adam Morgan

Freddie Freeman makes the list as his 29-game hit streak raised his BA to .307 for the season. He does walk quite a bit, which diminishes the chances of him getting a hit in a game.

The NN produces this list:

0.347, 0.766 — Daniel Murphy batting against Shelby Miller.
0.328, 0.765 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton.
0.349, 0.761 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.347, 0.760 — Trea Turner batting against Shelby Miller.
0.310, 0.737 — Mookie Betts batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.296, 0.735 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.322, 0.731 — Ender Inciarte batting against Adam Morgan.
0.306, 0.730 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.325, 0.728 — Jose Peraza batting against Mike Leake.
0.314, 0.727 — Brandon Phillips batting against Mike Leake.
0.293, 0.718 — Robinson Cano batting against Doug Fister.

Daniel Murphy is still hurt.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.347, 0.767 — Daniel Murphy batting against Shelby Miller.
0.349, 0.765 — Corey Seager batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.328, 0.764 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton.
0.347, 0.762 — Trea Turner batting against Shelby Miller.
0.310, 0.740 — Mookie Betts batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.296, 0.739 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.322, 0.738 — Ender Inciarte batting against Adam Morgan.
0.325, 0.735 — Jose Peraza batting against Mike Leake.
0.306, 0.733 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.314, 0.732 — Brandon Phillips batting against Mike Leake.
0.293, 0.722 — Robinson Cano batting against Doug Fister.

Corey Seager and Trea Turner appear to be the consensus picks. Your best picks will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2dCkjmy