Massive Tie Scenarios

The Mets and the Cardinals both lost big Monday night, while the Giants gained by not playing. The three teams can tie at 87 wins tops:

NL Wild Card Tie Possibility

Team	Record
Mets	4-1
Giants	5-1
Cardinals	6-0

 

Since none of the teams play head-to-head, the calculation of probabilities is straight forward. Assuming these are intrinsically .528 teams, the total probability of a three-way tie rose to 0.0427. The most likely outcome for a tie has the Cardinals going 4-2, with the Giants 3-3, and Mets going 2-3. That has a probability of 0.0236.

In the AL, The Mariners gained a game on the Tigers and the Blue Jays. Seattle’s victory put a damper on Houston’s wild card chances, as Seattle beat Houston 4-3 in 11 innings on Robinson Cano’s second home run of the game. Incredibly, the five-way tie for the two AL Wild Card slots is still alive.

AL Wild Card Tie Possibility

Team	Record
Blue Jays	1-5
Orioles	2-4
Tigers	4-2
Mariners	4-2
Astros	5-0

 

The Astros need to win the next two games from Seattle, then those two teams sweep their weekend series. Baltimore would then take two of three from the Blue Jays, and the two teams would need to get swept the final weekend. I don’t think that’s going to happen.

With the Tigers and Mariners now tied for the third position, a four-way for the two slots is possible, as well as numerous three-way ties:

AL Wild Card Tie Possibility

Team	Record
Blue Jays	3-3
Orioles	4-2
Tigers	6-0
Mariners	6-0

 

Baltimore could actually sweep Toronto and have this happen at 89 wins.

Here are the best outcomes for Tuesday night:

• The Orioles defeat the Blue Jays.
• The Tigers beat the Indians.
• The Mets fall to the Marlins.
• The Mariners claim victory over the Astros. While the Astros winning might keep a five-way tie alive, a Seattle win makes some kind of massive tie more likely.
• The Cardinals defeat the Reds.
• The Giants can win or lose against the Rockies. If the Mets lose and the Cardinals win, a Giants loss would make the three teams even in the AFILC.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2donHOi