Massive Tie Scenarios

The Cardinals, Giants and Mets all won Wednesday night, and in an amazing coincidence, all scored exactly 12 runs. The three teams can tie at 87 wins tops:

NL Wild Card Tie Possibility

Team	Record
Mets	3-1
Giants	4-1
Cardinals	5-0

 

Since none of the teams play head-to-head, the calculation of probabilities is straight forward. Assuming these are intrinsically .530 teams, the total probability of a three-way tie rose to 0.0478. The most likely outcome for a tie has the Cardinals going 4-1, with the Giants 3-2, and Mets going 2-2. That has a probability of 0.0236.

In the AL, the Astros beat the Mariners, and the Orioles lost the one game they could afford to lose to the Blue Jays. Detroit took advantage of Cleveland’s post clinch rest day for a big win. The five way tie is still a possibility, but an extremely long shot.

AL Wild Card Tie Possibility

Team	Record
Blue Jays	0-5
Orioles	2-3
Tigers	3-2
Mariners	4-1
Astros	4-0

 

If the Blue Jays win or the Astros lose, the five-way tie is over.

There is still the possibility of a three-way tie for the two top slots, like in the NL.

AL Wild Card Tie Possibility

Team	Record
Blue Jays	2-3
Orioles	4-1
Tigers	5-0

 

The Orioles need to win the next two games against the Blue Jays to make this a real possibility.

With the Orioles, Tigers, and Mariners separated by two games for the second wild card slot, and all their games independent, there is a 0.0336 probability of those teams tieing for the second slot. The most likely outcome would be the Mariners going 4-1, the Tigers going 3-2, and the Orioles going 2-3.

Here are the best outcomes for Wednesday:

• The Mariners claim victory over the Astros. While the Astros might keep the five-way tie alive, a Seattle win makes some kind of massive tie more likely.
• The Orioles defeat the Blue Jays.
• The Tigers beat the Indians.
• The Mets fall to the Marlins.
• The Cardinals defeat the Reds.
• The Giants can win or lose against the Rockies. If the Mets lose and the Cardinals win, a Giants loss would make the three teams even in the AFILC.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2dqM9U0