Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.335 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova
0.332 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova
0.325 — Jose Abreu batting against Cody Anderson
0.324 — Melky Cabrera batting against Cody Anderson
0.321 — Robinson Cano batting against Tyler Duffey
0.320 — Jose Altuve batting against Jhoulys Chacin
0.318 — Corey Seager batting against Chad Bettis
0.313 — Tim Anderson batting against Cody Anderson
0.309 — Jean Segura batting against Wade Miley
0.308 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Andriese
0.308 — Justin Morneau batting against Cody Anderson

I’m going to 11 on these lists as Daniel Murphy’s status is in doubt. Also, Ivan Nova pitched much better since joining the Pirates, so be careful picking against him.

The NN produces this list:

0.335, 0.762 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova.
0.320, 0.760 — Jose Altuve batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.332, 0.750 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova.
0.318, 0.743 — Corey Seager batting against Chad Bettis.
0.308, 0.738 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.296, 0.736 — Devon Travis batting against CC Sabathia.
0.321, 0.730 — Robinson Cano batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.325, 0.729 — Jose Abreu batting against Cody Anderson.
0.324, 0.725 — Melky Cabrera batting against Cody Anderson.
0.300, 0.724 — Starling Marte batting against Joe Ross.
0.300, 0.724 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Matt Andriese.

It’s a very similar list. The NN with park factored in modifies it like this:

0.335, 0.765 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ivan Nova.
0.320, 0.760 — Jose Altuve batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.332, 0.756 — Trea Turner batting against Ivan Nova.
0.318, 0.746 — Corey Seager batting against Chad Bettis.
0.308, 0.740 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.296, 0.739 — Devon Travis batting against CC Sabathia.
0.321, 0.738 — Robinson Cano batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.325, 0.734 — Jose Abreu batting against Cody Anderson.
0.324, 0.731 — Melky Cabrera batting against Cody Anderson.
0.309, 0.729 — Jean Segura batting against Wade Miley.
0.300, 0.729 — Starling Marte batting against Joe Ross.

Maybe it’s an Altuve and Seager day. As always, you best pick is going to fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2cPNyjz