A possible three-way tie in the NL took a huge hit Wednesday night as the Mets won, but both the Giants and Cardinals lost. The three teams can tie at 86 wins tops:
| Team | Record |
| Mets | 1-2 |
| Giants | 3-1 |
| Cardinals | 4-0 |
There are only two combinations that can produce a tie, the one above and the one in which the three teams wind up with 85 wins. The probability of a three-way tie dropped from 0.0478 to 0.0186. There is still a chance of a tie between the Giants and Cardinals for the second slot, and that would result in a playoff game on Monday at St. Louis.
The five-team tie for two wild card slots is dead in the AL, but with the Blue Jays losing to Baltimore while Detroit and Seattle won, the four team tie is still possible, with a maximum of 88 wins:
| Team | Record |
| Blue Jays | 1-3 |
| Orioles | 2-2 |
| Tigers | 3-1 |
| Mariners | 4-0 |
There is still the possibility of a three-way tie for the two top slots, like in the NL.
| Team | Record |
| Blue Jays | 2-2 |
| Orioles | 3-1 |
| Tigers | 4-0 |
And a three-way tie for the second slot:
| Team | Record |
| Orioles | 2-2 |
| Tigers | 3-1 |
| Mariners | 4-0 |
With the Orioles, Tigers, and Mariners separated by two games for the second wild card slot, and all their games independent, there is a 0.0352 probability of those teams tying for the second slot. The most likely outcome would be the Mariners going 3-1, the Tigers going 2-2, and the Orioles going 1-3.
Note that the Yankees and Astros are not quite out of it yet. The Yankees need to win tonight while Baltimore loses, then sweep the Orioles to force a tie between those two teams. The would also need bad weekends from Detroit, Seattle, and Houston.
Here are the best outcomes for Thursday:
- The Tigers beat the Indians.
- The Orioles defeat the Blue Jays.
- The Cardinals defeat the Reds.
- The Mariners defeat the Athletics.
- The Giants defeat the Rockies.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2dtHiNc
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