Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.325 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jameson Taillon
0.324 — Trea Turner batting against Jameson Taillon
0.319 — Manny Machado batting against Shelby Miller
0.313 — Devon Travis batting against Bryan Mitchell
0.309 — Hyun Soo Kim batting against Shelby Miller
0.305 — Jose Peraza batting against Zach Davies
0.301 — Yunel Escobar batting against Doug Fister
0.300 — Adam Jones batting against Shelby Miller
0.299 — Robinson Cano batting against Kyle Gibson
0.298 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Shelby Miller
0.298 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Edwin Jackson

Daniel Murphy is hurt, so be careful picking him to beat the streak until he starts playing again. Log5 does like the Orioles against Shelby Miller.

The NN produces this list:

0.325, 0.756 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.297, 0.751 — Jose Altuve batting against Alex Meyer.
0.324, 0.747 — Trea Turner batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.313, 0.743 — Devon Travis batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.291, 0.733 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Scott Kazmir.
0.285, 0.728 — Corey Seager batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.301, 0.726 — Yunel Escobar batting against Doug Fister.
0.319, 0.723 — Manny Machado batting against Shelby Miller.
0.295, 0.722 — Starling Marte batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.295, 0.719 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Matt Wisler.
0.297, 0.718 — Jean Segura batting against Yovani Gallardo.

Discounting Murphy, Trea Turner and Devon Travis do well in both lists.

Taking parks into consideration modifies the list like this:

0.325, 0.759 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.324, 0.752 — Trea Turner batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.297, 0.750 — Jose Altuve batting against Alex Meyer.
0.313, 0.745 — Devon Travis batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.291, 0.733 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Scott Kazmir.
0.285, 0.730 — Corey Seager batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.301, 0.729 — Yunel Escobar batting against Doug Fister.
0.319, 0.728 — Manny Machado batting against Shelby Miller.
0.295, 0.727 — Starling Marte batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.297, 0.724 — Jean Segura batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.305, 0.724 — Jose Peraza batting against Zach Davies.

Not much of a change. Your best picks will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2cWaKxq