Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.313 — Jose Peraza batting against Adam Wainwright
0.312 — Paulo Orlando batting against Jose Berrios
0.305 — Brandon Phillips batting against Adam Wainwright
0.302 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jose Berrios
0.297 — Ryon Healy batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.296 — Whit Merrifield batting against Jose Berrios
0.296 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Moore
0.294 — Corey Seager batting against Paul Clemens
0.290 — Devon Travis batting against Kevin Gausman
0.289 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Koch
0.289 — Trea Turner batting against Matt Koch
0.288 — Cheslor Cuthbert batting against Jose Berrios

Both Murphy and Cain are active but injured, so it’s a top 12 list today.

The NN produces this list:

0.289, 0.739 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Koch.
0.296, 0.735 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Moore.
0.266, 0.733 — Jose Altuve batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.289, 0.733 — Trea Turner batting against Matt Koch.
0.294, 0.730 — Corey Seager batting against Paul Clemens.
0.312, 0.726 — Paulo Orlando batting against Jose Berrios.
0.290, 0.725 — Devon Travis batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.282, 0.723 — Mookie Betts batting against Luis Cessa.
0.305, 0.722 — Brandon Phillips batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.313, 0.721 — Jose Peraza batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.302, 0.719 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jose Berrios.
0.284, 0.715 — Yunel Escobar batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.283, 0.715 — Charles Blackmon batting against Matt Moore.

It’s tough to see a consensus choice between the two lists. DJ LeMahieu might be the top choice.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.289, 0.741 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Koch.
0.296, 0.739 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Moore.
0.289, 0.736 — Trea Turner batting against Matt Koch.
0.294, 0.732 — Corey Seager batting against Paul Clemens.
0.312, 0.731 — Paulo Orlando batting against Jose Berrios.
0.266, 0.731 — Jose Altuve batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.313, 0.727 — Jose Peraza batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.290, 0.727 — Devon Travis batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.305, 0.727 — Brandon Phillips batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.282, 0.725 — Mookie Betts batting against Luis Cessa.
0.302, 0.724 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Jose Berrios.
0.283, 0.720 — Charles Blackmon batting against Matt Moore.

Jose Peraza might be a good second choice. As always, your best pick is likely to fail 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2dyXVKR