Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.326 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robbie Ray
0.326 — Trea Turner batting against Robbie Ray
0.306 — Paulo Orlando batting against Kyle Gibson
0.303 — Jean Segura batting against Joe Ross
0.295 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Kyle Gibson
0.291 — Robinson Cano batting against Kendall Graveman
0.290 — Wilson Ramos batting against Robbie Ray
0.290 — Mookie Betts batting against CC Sabathia
0.289 — Devon Travis batting against Ubaldo Jimenez
0.288 — Corey Seager batting against Christian Friedrich
0.287 — Whit Merrifield batting against Kyle Gibson
0.285 — Jose Ramirez batting against Daniel Norris

This is a top 12 list, as a few of the players are active but hurt, especially Murphy, Cain, and Travis.

The NN produces this list:

0.326, 0.758 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robbie Ray.
0.326, 0.752 — Trea Turner batting against Robbie Ray.
0.290, 0.728 — Mookie Betts batting against CC Sabathia.
0.283, 0.728 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.288, 0.727 — Corey Seager batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.306, 0.725 — Paulo Orlando batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.289, 0.724 — Devon Travis batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.303, 0.723 — Jean Segura batting against Joe Ross.
0.284, 0.718 — Dustin Pedroia batting against CC Sabathia.
0.295, 0.715 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.291, 0.715 — Robinson Cano batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.276, 0.711 — Starling Marte batting against Rob Zastryzny.

Turner and Bets look like the best bets so far.

The NN with park factored in produces this list:

0.326, 0.760 — Daniel Murphy batting against Robbie Ray.
0.326, 0.755 — Trea Turner batting against Robbie Ray.
0.290, 0.731 — Mookie Betts batting against CC Sabathia.
0.283, 0.730 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.288, 0.730 — Corey Seager batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.306, 0.730 — Paulo Orlando batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.303, 0.728 — Jean Segura batting against Joe Ross.
0.289, 0.727 — Devon Travis batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.284, 0.723 — Dustin Pedroia batting against CC Sabathia.
0.295, 0.721 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.291, 0.719 — Robinson Cano batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.276, 0.716 — Starling Marte batting against Rob Zastryzny.

Remember, you best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2cNgzNe