Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.326 — Jose Altuve batting against Hisashi Iwakuma
0.324 — Daniel Murphy batting against Archie Bradley
0.319 — Trea Turner batting against Archie Bradley
0.308 — Ryon Healy batting against Jered Weaver
0.308 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Bartolo Colon
0.306 — Yunel Escobar batting against Ross Detwiler
0.306 — Adrian Beltre batting against Matt Garza
0.304 — Martin Prado batting against Bartolo Colon
0.300 — Carlos Beltran batting against Matt Garza
0.299 — Robinson Cano batting against Collin McHugh
0.298 — Devon Travis batting against Luis Severino

Ryon Healy is a rookie for Oakland, now to the point where his 2016 season is being counted for full. He is the kind of hitter this system likes, with a high batting average and few walks. That makes him unusual in the Oakland system.

The NN produces this list.

0.326, 0.762 — Jose Altuve batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.324, 0.756 — Daniel Murphy batting against Archie Bradley.
0.319, 0.743 — Trea Turner batting against Archie Bradley.
0.298, 0.731 — Devon Travis batting against Luis Severino.
0.306, 0.728 — Yunel Escobar batting against Ross Detwiler.
0.308, 0.727 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.304, 0.724 — Martin Prado batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.306, 0.724 — Adrian Beltre batting against Matt Garza.
0.299, 0.717 — Robinson Cano batting against Collin McHugh.
0.288, 0.715 — Dee Gordon batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.297, 0.713 — Jose Peraza batting against Jaime Garcia.

Please remember that while Daniel Murphy is active, the Nationals are allowing his butt to heal. There are a number of Marlins on the list, but this will be a very emotional game for that team. Players may rise to the occasion, but they may fall apart as well.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.326, 0.762 — Jose Altuve batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.324, 0.758 — Daniel Murphy batting against Archie Bradley.
0.319, 0.747 — Trea Turner batting against Archie Bradley.
0.306, 0.733 — Yunel Escobar batting against Ross Detwiler.
0.298, 0.733 — Devon Travis batting against Luis Severino.
0.308, 0.732 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.306, 0.731 — Adrian Beltre batting against Matt Garza.
0.304, 0.730 — Martin Prado batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.299, 0.720 — Robinson Cano batting against Collin McHugh.
0.288, 0.719 — Dee Gordon batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.297, 0.719 — Jose Peraza batting against Jaime Garcia.

It looks like Altuve and Trea Turner are the consensus picks. Your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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