Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.322 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Adam Wainwright
0.313 — Devon Travis batting against Hisashi Iwakuma
0.311 — Adrian Beltre batting against Daniel Wright
0.308 — Charles Blackmon batting against Adam Wainwright
0.308 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Garza
0.308 — Carlos Beltran batting against Daniel Wright
0.303 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea
0.302 — Paulo Orlando batting against Josh Tomlin
0.301 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Daniel Wright
0.300 — David M Dahl batting against Adam Wainwright
0.300 — Rougned Odor batting against Daniel Wright

Wright appears wrong today.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.303, 0.752 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea.
0.322, 0.748 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.313, 0.747 — Devon Travis batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.281, 0.735 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jose Fernandez.
0.285, 0.732 — Trea Turner batting against Jose Fernandez.
0.308, 0.729 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Garza.
0.308, 0.728 — Charles Blackmon batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.311, 0.723 — Adrian Beltre batting against Daniel Wright.
0.287, 0.723 — Mookie Betts batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.295, 0.723 — Francisco Lindor batting against Edinson Volquez.

LeMahieu and Travis appear to be the consensus choices so far.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.322, 0.756 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.303, 0.752 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea.
0.313, 0.748 — Devon Travis batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.308, 0.737 — Charles Blackmon batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.281, 0.735 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jose Fernandez.
0.308, 0.735 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Garza.
0.285, 0.733 — Trea Turner batting against Jose Fernandez.
0.311, 0.729 — Adrian Beltre batting against Daniel Wright.
0.295, 0.727 — Francisco Lindor batting against Edinson Volquez.
0.287, 0.727 — Mookie Betts batting against Kevin Gausman.

The Rockies players get bumped up a bit. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2d4Ly5K