Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.357 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Wright
0.346 — Jose Peraza batting against Wily Peralta
0.327 — Brandon Phillips batting against Wily Peralta
0.311 — Joey Votto batting against Wily Peralta
0.310 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Clayton Richard
0.310 — Manny Machado batting against Braden Shipley
0.307 — Buster Posey batting against Clayton Richard
0.307 — Devon Travis batting against Michael Pineda
0.303 — Hunter Pence batting against Clayton Richard
0.303 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson

The rookie Peraza is a bright spot for the Reds this season, and makes it to the top of the list against a hittable pitcher.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.357, 0.777 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Wright.
0.300, 0.744 — Daniel Murphy batting against Tyler Glasnow.
0.346, 0.743 — Jose Peraza batting against Wily Peralta.
0.307, 0.739 — Devon Travis batting against Michael Pineda.
0.327, 0.733 — Brandon Phillips batting against Wily Peralta.
0.303, 0.732 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.296, 0.731 — Trea Turner batting against Tyler Glasnow.
0.264, 0.721 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.310, 0.719 — Manny Machado batting against Braden Shipley.
0.274, 0.718 — Mookie Betts batting against Jake Odorizzi.

Murphy, although technically active, has a strained buttocks, and won’t play for a while.

Taking the park into consideration modifies the list like this:

0.357, 0.776 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Wright.
0.346, 0.751 — Jose Peraza batting against Wily Peralta.
0.300, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Tyler Glasnow.
0.307, 0.742 — Devon Travis batting against Michael Pineda.
0.327, 0.740 — Brandon Phillips batting against Wily Peralta.
0.296, 0.735 — Trea Turner batting against Tyler Glasnow.
0.303, 0.734 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.264, 0.725 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.310, 0.724 — Manny Machado batting against Braden Shipley.
0.307, 0.723 — Buster Posey batting against Clayton Richard.

Altuve and Peraza are the clear consensus picks. As always, your best picks will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2d0RleV