The Mets lost and the Giants and Cardinals won Tuesday night, resulting in a three-way tie for the two NL Wild Card slots. If the three teams win all their remaining games, the tie can happen at 91 wins:
| Team | Record |
| Mets | 11-0 |
| Giants | 11-0 |
| Cardinals | 11-0 |
Since none of the teams play head-to-head, the calculation of probabilities is straight forward. Assuming these are intrinsically .530 teams, the total probability of a three-way tie rose to 0.325. The most likely outcome for a tie has all three teams going 6-5 with a probability of .013. The odds remain long but not impossible.
Having a tie early means the probability of the season ending this way is as high as it can be. We’ll see how long they can keep it up.
The Cardinals would get the A designation in a three-way tie, the Mets the B team, and the Giants the C team. So the Cardinals would host the Mets. The winner would be the first wild card. The Giants would then host the loser of the first game, with the winner of game two the second wild card.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2cGW4BB
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