We’ll Always Have Boston

Xander Bogaerts is close to a contract extension with the Red Sox:

Shortstop Xander Bogaerts and the Boston Red Sox are finalizing a seven-year, $132 million contract extension, league sources tell ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The deal, which was first reported as close by Boston radio station WEEI, includes the $12 million Bogaerts was scheduled to make this season, then $120 million over the final six years.

ESPN.com

Salaries have been flat coming into this season, but it would appear that next year there will be a big rise in the average salary with all the extensions.

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Record Start

Christian Yelich homered in his fourth straight game, tying a record.

Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich did it again on Sunday, becoming the sixth player in Major League history to homer in four straight games.

MLB.com

The Brewers lead the Cardinals 1-0 in the second inning. Yelich will get a chance to break the record Monday (tomorrow) in Cincinnati, a good park for home runs.

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Games of the Day

The Mets go for a sweep of the Nationals as Zack Wheeler takes on Patrick Corbin. Wheeler has a poor record against Washington, 4-8 in 13 starts with a 4.37 ERA. He gives up hits to the Nationals at a much higher rate than he does in his overall career. Corbin makes his Washington debut. Corbin pitched little in Washington during his time with the Diamondbacks, but allowed four home runs in 15 innings.

The Indians and Twins play the rubber game of their opening series with Carlos Carrasco taking on Michael Pineda. Carrasco performed steadily over the last three seasons, with ERAs between 3.29 and 3.38. In that time opponents hit .238/.286/.396 against him. Opponents generate power against him, but the lack of base runners means there are few opportunities for RBI. Pineda returns from Tommy John surgery. He last pitched in July of 2017. In 20 1/3 innings this spring, he struck out 20 and walked just five, indicating both his power and control are there.

For the second day in a row, a Padres starting pitcher makes his major league debut. The Giants send Jeff Samardzija against Chris Paddack. Samardzija managed just 44 2/3 innings in the 2018 season, posting a 6.25 ERA due to shoulder problems. Paddack managed 37 1/3 innings at AA before his call up. He struck out 11.7 per nine innings pitched in the minors, with a walk rate of 1.0 per 9 IP.

Enjoy!

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Who Needs Fielders?

Josh Hader pitched an immaculate inning Saturday night:

Hader recorded his first immaculate inning, striking out three straight St. Louis Cardinals in the ninth and finishing a 4-2 Milwaukee win. Hader threw nine straight fastballs. Tyler O’Neill fouled off Hader’s first pitch, the last time any St. Louis hitter made contact. O’Neill, Dexter Fowler and pinch-hitter Yairo Munoz all went down on three pitches.

“He’s throwing at such a high level right now and executing pitches at the top of the zone,” Brewers manager Craig Counsell said. “When he executes those pitches, they’re hard to lay off and they’re hard to hit. It’s challenging. It’s just a different fastball than anybody has in the league.”

ESPN.com

It early, but both Baseball Info Solutions and Trackman have Hader’s velocity up two MPH compared to last year. We’ll see if that hold up as the season progresses.

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Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.254 — Adam Jones batting against Walker Buehler.
• 0.254 — David Peralta batting against Walker Buehler.
• 0.251 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sandy Alcantara.
• 0.250 — Jean Segura batting against Kyle Wright.
• 0.247 — Daniel Murphy batting against Sandy Alcantara.
• 0.244 — Nolan Arenado batting against Sandy Alcantara.
• 0.244 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Corbin Burnes.
• 0.242 — Jose Martinez batting against Corbin Burnes.
• 0.241 — Michael Brantley batting against Ryan Yarbrough.
• 0.241 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryan Yarbrough.
• 0.241 — Nick Castellanos batting against Trent Thornton.

The numbers here are based on hit average, Hits divided by Plate Appearances (H/PA). These number are low right now because the 2019 H/PA for position players is very low, .207. It’s usually closer to .230. So hitter 2019 averages are being regressed toward that low number.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.265, 0.687 — J.D. Martinez batting against Wade LeBlanc.
• 0.259, 0.683 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryan Yarbrough.
• 0.264, 0.682 — Miguel Andujar batting against Dylan Bundy.
• 0.262, 0.677 — Corey Dickerson batting against Tanner Roark.
• 0.263, 0.677 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jake Arrieta.
• 0.259, 0.676 — Michael Brantley batting against Ryan Yarbrough.
• 0.266, 0.673 — Justin Turner batting against Luke Weaver.
• 0.255, 0.671 — Wilson Ramos batting against Patrick Corbin.
• 0.246, 0.668 — Jean Segura batting against Kyle Wright.
• 0.255, 0.667 — Mookie Betts batting against Wade LeBlanc.
• 0.253, 0.667 — Christian Yelich batting against Michael Wacha.

These probabilities are very low. Once there is more data for 2019, we should see these probabilities closer to .750

Adam Jones does well in the first measure because he is a long term high hit, low walk player, and his hit average so far is high. He doesn’t appear in the NN list as the NN weights the three year parameter more heavily than the current year.

You can always test a prediction against reality with the Day by Day Database. J.D. Martinez hits .444 against Wade LeBlanc, four for nine. It’s a small sample size, but Martinez has two doubles and a home run against LeBlanc, and two strikeouts. That’s a little bit of evidence that Martinez squares the ball up against the Seattle starter and puts the ball in play.

Jose Altuve is the consensus pick, as there are very few players in common between the two lists today.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

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Best Batter Today

Christian Yelich homered for the third straight game to maintain his large lead in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He’s 4 for 10 with three walks so far this season. Alex Bregman, Anthony Rendon, and Mike Trout remain in the top five, but Justin Turner replaces Mitch Haniger in the number five slot. Turner went three for five with a walk as the Dodgers scored 18 runs against the Diamondbacks Saturday night. Cody Bellinger went for for six with two home runs and jumps to 14th in the rankings.

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Sunday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

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Shutout City

Toronto host three games so far this season, and each ended in a shutout. Detroit won the opener 2-0, then the Blue Jays came back with a 6-0 win on Friday. Saturday saw another shutout, a 3-0 win by the Blue Jays.

As of 8:30 PM on Saturday, there have been seven shutouts this season and eight games in which a team scored at least 10 runs. (The Mets beat the Nationals 11-8 this afternoon.) So far, the two are evening out.

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Games of the Day

The Mets and Nationals send the second of their aces to the mound as Noah Syndergaard takes on Stephen Strasburg. Syndergaard rebounded well from an injury shortened 2017, posting excellent numbers in all three-true outcomes. He was especially good at keeping the ball in the park, allowing just nine home runs in 154 1/3 innings. Strasburg suffered injuries in 2018 that limited him to 130 innings. His 3.74 ERA was the highest of any season in his career. It’s not clear why it was high. His opposition batting numbers were .240/.302/.409, but there’s nothing in his situational numbers that stand out.

In Texas, the Cubs send Yu Darvish against the Rangers and Edinson Volquez. This is Darvish’s first start back in Arlington since leaving the team. He was 31-19 in 65 starts with a 3.60 ERA at the ballpark. Volquez returns to the team that brought him to the majors in 2005. Although Volquez has a high career ERA, he does well at keeping the ball in the park.

Finally, at the other end of the age spectrum, Dereck Rodriguez and the Giants face Nick Margevicius of the Padres. Rodriguez pitched well in his rookie year, posting a 2.81 ERA in 118 1/3 innings, allowing just 98 hits. Margevicius makes his MLB debut, not having pitched above A ball. He had impressive walk, strikeout, and home run numbers in the low minors, which likely led to his promotion.

Enjoy!

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Best Batter Today

Christian Yelich homered Friday night to stay at the top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Mike Trout went two for four with a walk and a double to move into third place behind Alex Bregman, with Anthony Rendon and Mitch Haniger rounding out the top five.

The big mover was Paul Goldschmidt who went from 68th place with 465 yesterday points to 21st place with 481 points today. He went four for five with a walk and three home runs to pace the Cardinals to a 9-5 victory over the Brewers.

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Saturday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

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That’s Not Funny!

MLB players appear to have no sense of humor:

Major League Baseball Players Association executive director Tony Clark scolded the MLB and its teams for making a game out of the arbitration process by awarding a toy championship belt to the team deemed having done the best to keep salaries down.

“That clubs make sport of trying to suppress salaries in a process designed to produce fair settlements shows a blatant lack of respect for our Players, the game, and the arbitration process itself,” Clark said in a statement issued Friday.

ESPN.com

Other players weigh in with similar sentiments.

Guess what, the people who inhabit MLB front offices are just as competitive as professional athletes. The GMs job is to produce a winner at as low a cost as possible.

Arbitration is an adversarial process. It is a process the player’s union wanted instituted, because they realized that it would help them earn free agency and raise salaries. Now they are upset because the teams ended up to be very good adversaries, and compete among themselves to see who can be the best?

Please.

I think the toy belt is hilarious. If players don’t like it, then win your arbitration cases!

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Disabled Knebel

Corey Knebel will spend the year on the illjured list after electing to undergo Tommy John surgery:

Knebel is under contract for $5.125 million this season and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2021 season. Assuming a normal recovery, Knebel should still be part of Milwaukee’s near- to mid-term window as contenders.

The Brewers are also without reliever Jeremy Jeffress, who opened the season on the injured list because of right shoulder weakness. Even though he figures to return by mid April or so, his absence adds to the Brewers’ bullpen concerns.

CBSSports.com

Knebel is fourth in the majors since the start of the 2017 season in K per 9 IP, minimum of 100 IP. He blows away batters, and the Brewers will miss that.

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Games of the Day

The Astros continue their opening series at the Rays as Gerritt Cole takes on former teammate Charlie Morton. Cole, like Justin Verlander, saw an improvement in his ERA after moving to Houston. He reduced his use of the sinker and threw more curve balls. Morton went 29-10 in his two years in Houston. He struck out 6.3 batters per nine IP through 2016, 10.4 K per 9 IP with the Astros.

Matt Harvey tries to resurrect his career, this time with the Angels. He faces the Athletics and Marco Estrada. Harvey managed 155 innings last year, and he showed excellent control, walking just 37 batters. The 27 home runs hit against him hurt, however. Estrada pitched to contact last year, and in his first start of 2019 he allowed no walks while striking out just one in five innings.

Enjoy!

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Best Batter Today

Christian Yelich continues to lead the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Alex Bregman is 25 points back in second place, with Anthony Rendon remaining third. Mitch Haniger, however, moves into the fourth slot. He went 2 for 4 with a double Thursday night, and having started the season a bit earlier has a jump on the rest of the field. Mike Trout drops to fifth place.

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Friday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date. Check out Luke Voit’s perfect season.

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Meet “Bob”

Fast Triple

The Mariners are hammering Chris Sale in the third. Edwin Encarnacion hit a solo homer to start the inning. After a strikeout and a walk, Tim Beckham hit his second home run of the game and third of the season. The Mallex Smith hit a ball in the right-centerfield gap. The ball was hit hard, and when the throw came to second and I didn’t see Smith in the picture, I assumed he was held at first. Instead, he was already at third base. Wow. He scores on a sacrifice fly and the Mariners lead the Red Sox 7-2.

Sale allowed 11 home runs all last year.

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Quick Games

The games were pretty speedy so far today. The ten inning Tigers versus Blue Jays game took just 2:25. There were a number of games under 2:30, and the longest I’m seen so far is the 3:07 Cubs at Rangers, which produced 16 runs. The commissioner must be happy. Maybe the pitchers want to keep the pitch clock out of the game so much that they are working faster.

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1300 Homers

The Dodgers get off to a good start as they hit eight home runs against the Diamondbacks in a 12-5 win. Joc Pederson and Kike Hernandez each went deep twice. Corey Seager homered and walk in his return from Tommy John surgery. The Dodgers are on a pace for 1296 home runs this season.

Zack Greinke allowed seven of the 12 runs. He should be the bright spot of the Diamondbacks rotation, so a poor start for him is a poor start for the team.

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Cain Saves the Game

No Offense

The Tigers and Blue Jays offenses are so bad that neither team had collected a hit through five innings. Jordan Zimmermann is perfect through five innings. Marcus Stroman allowed his first hit with two out in the sixth inning, as Nicholas Castellanos singles. There is no score in the middle of the sixth inning.

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One in the Books

The Mets beat the Nationals 2-0 as Robinson Cano makes a stellar debut for New York, driving in both runs with a homer and a single. Both Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer pitched brilliantly, combing for 22 strikeouts. It was only the second time opening day starters each reached the then strikeout mark.

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Debut Home Run

Andrew McCutchen homers leading off the bottom of the first inning in his Phillies debut. Bryce Harper grounds out to first, but the Phillies have a 1-0 lead over the Braves in the bottom of the first inning.

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Yelich Continues

Christian Yelich hits a three-run homer in the bottom of the third inning. His shot brings the Brewers back as they take a 4-3 lead on the Cardinals. That’s 37 home runs in 148 regular season games since Yelich joined the Brewers.

The ball is flying out of Miller Park today, with four home runs so far.

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Cards Connect

A Dexter Fowler walks is followed by Kolten Wong and Harrison Bader hitting back-to-back home runs, and the Cardinals jump out to a 3-0 lead over the Brewers in the top of the second inning. Both shots were smashed. Jhoulys Chacin gave up 18 home runs in 192 2/3 innings last year.

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Robles Doubles

Earlier I mentioned how much I like Victor Robles batting ninth. He winds up leading off the third inning with a double. Adam Eaton follows with a single that was almost caught to put runners on first and third with none out. The 9-1 table setters do their jobs.

The Mets lead the Nationals 1-0.

Update: Robles makes a poor base running play on a potential double play grounder. Rather than breaking for home right away with one out, he holds at third, then tries to score. The Mets get the out at second and catch Robles in a run down to end the inning. A good start ends poorly. Nice play by the Mets.

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Voit Voips

The Yankees two big sluggers, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton each hit opposite field singles in the bottom of the first. That brings up Luke Voit who smashes a ball over the centerfield fence to give the Yankees a 3-0 lead over the Orioles. For Voit, that’s his 15th home run in his last 33 regular season games.

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Underway

Max Scherzer starts the day off by striking out Brandon Nimmo on three pitches.

Update: After a second strikeout, Robinson Cano puts a run on the board with a home run to left-center. The Mets lead the Nationals 1-0.

Update: Scherzer strikes out the side for a three-true outcomes inning.

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The 21st

David Adler notes that no one on an opening day roster played in the 20th century. Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Albert Pujols all debuted in 2001. I have to think it’s unusual to not have at least one player in his 40s. Also:

On the other end of the spectrum is 19-year-old Elvis Luciano. Luciano, a Blue Jays Rule 5 Draft pick who was born on Feb. 15, 2000, made Toronto’s Opening Day roster. That makes him MLB’s first active player born in the 2000s.

MLB.com

That was technically in the 20th century, but the game has crossed a barrier.

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Cardinals Order

I very much like the Cardinals batting order today. Matt Carpenter and Paul Goldschmidt set the table. They have the Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna, and Yadier Molina third. It’s not exactly like the lineup the Lineup Analysis Tool would produce, but it’s pretty close.

I do think the power hitter batting second works better when the pitcher bats eighth, but one step at a time.

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Robles Ninth

I’m very happy to see Victor Robles batting ninth for the Nationals today. Batting him ninth takes pressure off the rookie while still allowing him to serve as a table setter in subsequent times through the order. It’s a little easier to do this when you have a good hitting pitcher in the lineup, like Max Scherzer.

The Yankees used to do this with good rookies. Derek Jeter and Nick Johnson both started in the ninth slot. Of course, the Yankees didn’t need to worry about criticism batting the pitcher eighth.

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Games of the Day

The Mets and Nationals play the first game on the NL Season at 1 PM EDT with Jacob deGrom battling Max Scherzer. deGrom comes off a career year in which he posted a 1.70 ERA. Compared to 2017, deGrom increased his innings by 15 2/3, his strikeouts by 30, and lowered his hits allowed by 28. The Mets ace comes out of his peak years with not that much MLB wear and tear on his arm. He’s likely to regress a bit back to his career 2.67 ERA, but that would still put him in Cy Young contention. Scherzer posted ERAs below three in each of the last four seasons (all with Washington) and if five of the last six seasons. Only Clayton Kershaw and deGrom own lower ERAs in that time (800 IP), but no one pitched more innings.

At 3 PM EDT, the Braves visit the Phillies as the home town fans get introduced to Bryce Harper. Julio Teheran and Aaron Nola take the hill. Harper crushed Teheran in their careers, with eight home runs and three doubles to go along with 18 hits. Nola is the third great ace of the NL East, breaking out with a 2.37 ERA in the first season of his prime. Unlike the older deGrom and Scherzer, Nola should still be getting better.

The powerhouse Astros take on the upstart Rays at 4 PM, with Justin Verlander facing Blake Snell. (The season opener for the Rays is not an opener. ) Verlander posted an amazing 2018, setting a career single-season high with 290 strikeouts. He also cut his walks from 72 to 37 compared to 2017, all at seasonal age 35. Snell, ten years younger, became a 20-game winner for the first time, improving all three of his true outcomes while increasing his workload by about 50 innings.

Finally, the evening game features the World Champion Red Sox against the undefeated Mariners. Chris Sale battles Marco Gonzales. Sale missed qualifying for the ERA leader board by four innings in 2018, and would have finished second in the AL. Batters on the road hit .188/.238/.311 against Sale since he joined the Red Sox. Gonzales makes batters hit the ball, walking just 1.9 batters per 9 IP since joining the Mariners.

Enjoy!

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Best Batter Today

With the season about to commence, it’s a good day to see where the batters rank in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. The idea is to rank the batters in such a way that recent history combined with a weighted past identifies the best hitters in the game right now.

The value of the player declines as they are inactive, so over the winter everyone’s value fell a bit from the end of the season. Note that post-season games count, so hitters on playoff teams had a bit less decay. The Athletics and Mariners, having played two games, stopped their decay which is why we see a couple of them ranked high on the list.

Here is how the season opens. NL MVP Christian Yelich tops the list, followed by Astros third baseman Alex Bregman, Washington third baseman Anthony Rendon, Mr. Money Mike Trout, and Seattle’s own Mitch Haniger. Haniger is off to a good start this season with two hits, a double and a home run, a walk, a hit by pitch, and a sacrifice fly.

We’ll follow this daily.

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Happy Opening Day!

I hope you called in sick or took a vacation to enjoy the happiest day of the year.

Here are the latest odds for winning the World Series, thanks to betonline.ag:

Team	Odds 10/29/2018	Opening Day Odds
New York Yankees	15/2	6/1
Houston Astros	7/1	7/1
Boston Red Sox	7/1	15/2
Los Angeles Dodgers	15/2	8/1
Philadelphia Phillies	22/1	8/1
Cleveland Indians	12/1	12/1
Chicago Cubs	12/1	14/1
St Louis Cardinals	18/1	14/1
Milwaukee Brewers	12/1	16/1
Washington Nationals	14/1	16/1
New York Mets	28/1	18/1
Atlanta Braves	12/1	20/1
Colorado Rockies	28/1	25/1
Oakland Athletics	28/1	33/1
Tampa Bay Rays	50/1	33/1
Los Angeles Angels	40/1	40/1
Arizona Diamondbacks	66/1	50/1
Minnesota Twins	66/1	50/1
San Diego Padres	80/1	50/1
Chicago White Sox	80/1	66/1
Cincinnati Reds	80/1	66/1
San Francisco Giants	66/1	66/1
Seattle Mariners	50/1	66/1
Pittsburgh Pirates	50/1	80/1
Toronto Blue Jays	50/1	100/1
Detroit Tigers	100/1	250/1
Kansas City Royals	100/1	250/1
Texas Rangers	80/1	250/1
Baltimore Orioles	100/1	500/1
Miami Marlins	100/1	500/1

Bill James once wrote that no team is worse than 100/1 to win the World Series. I can’t really argue with the teams at the bottom of this list, however.

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Division Preview, 2019 NL West

The division previews finish with the NL West. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use Baseball-Reference WAR from 2018, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2018. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Position Player WAR: 22.6
• Pitcher Total: 12.5
• Core Total: 35.1

The Dodgers no longer look like a super team. Their 35.1 core WAR seems low to me, and indeed the team has some upside. Corey Seager, if healthy, is much better than a 0.4 WAR player. Clayton Kershaw, if healthy could double his 3.3 WAR from 2018. Kenley Jansen, if healthy could post two WAR from the closer role.

The Dodgers have enough depth that they could withstand those players not coming back 100%. They showed that last season as injuries cut down the contributions of all three players, and yet Los Angeles won the division. There are no poor players in the core, no one filling in a spot with a zero WAR. The Dodgers should be the favorite to repeat, and they are likely a bigger favorite than their core total indicates.

Colorado Rockies

• Position Player WAR: 10.7
• Pitcher Total: 19.2
• Core Total: 31.0

I don’t think I ever thought I would write this next statement. The Rockies have the highest WAR for the pitching core in the division. Kyle Freeland is a legitimate Cy Young Award candidate. German Marquez and Tyler Anderson give the Rockies a formidable 2-3 punch. It’s nice to see the Rockies figured out who can do well at Coors.

The position players have some upside. Daniel Murphy was a negative WAR player in 2018 due to his defense. At first base, his bat should dominate, and he is the type of gap hitter who should do well at Coors. If he could run, he might lead the league in triples. Charlie Blackmon also had a big WAR drop-off due to his defense. Offensively, this team should be very good, especially with strong hitting at third base and shortstop.

The Dodgers and Rockies went down to the wire in 2018, and we should see something similar in 2019.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Position Player WAR: 12.4
• Pitcher Total: 5.2
• Core Total: 17.6

The Diamondbacks are retooling after a disappointing third place finish in 2018. Paul Goldschmidt and Patrick Corbin are gone, and the team did little to replace their ten WAR. Nick Ahmed, David Peralta, Ketel Marte, and Zack Greinke give this team a solid core, but right now the Diamondbacks are working on surrounding them with a better supporting cast. It’s hard to see a lot of upside with this team.

San Francisco Giants

• Position Player WAR: 12.1
• Pitcher Total: 6.8
• Core Total: 18.9

The Giants are a team without a current star. Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, and Madison Bumgarner all seem to have left their star power in their past. They are all solid two to three WAR players, but there is no high WAR player to build around right now. Maybe they all bounce back for one more big season. Maybe the few younger players on the team blossom. My guess is the fans enjoy their former stars as the team continues to decline.

San Diego Padres

• Position Player WAR: 17.8
• Pitcher Total: 5.5
• Core Total: 23.3

The Padres made the biggest splash in the division when they signed Manny Machado. With his offense and defense, the Padres now have the second highest position player core WAR in the division.

What should be equally as exciting is the Padres promoting Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Chris Paddack to the majors. Tatis takes over at shortstop. He hit .282/.346/.483 at AA as an 18 and 19 year old. The Padres are not trying to manipulate his service time either, which indicates they are serious about winning.

Paddack plays 2019 as a 23-year old. He strikes out tons of batters and walks no one. In 177 2/3 minor league innings, he walks 20 batters and struck out 230. If his MLB rates are nine K per 9 IP and two walks per 9 IP, he’ll be very good.

I rated them both at two WAR for the upcoming season, but both could wind up much higher than that. More importantly, because Machado is still young, this gives the Padres an outstanding core to build around for the next five seasons.

Summary

I expect a tight race between the Dodgers and the Rockies, with the Padres moving up in the division. If their rookies pan out, the Padres should push past the .500 mark, but I think they are still a year or two away from contending for the playoffs.

One feature of this division is the great left-side of the infields. The Dodgers, Padres, and Rockies all have stars at third and short, and it will be fun comparing them as the season progresses.

Probability of winning the division

• Los Angeles Dodgers 40%
• Colorado Rockies 35%
• San Diego Padres 15%
• San Francisco Giants 6%
• Arizona Diamondbacks 4%

Previous entries in this series:

• AL West
• AL East
• NL East
• NL Central
• AL Central

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What Are The Consequences Of Doing Nothing?

What are the consequences of doing nothing/not changing? The answer to this question is the single most important issue in every sales opportunity. Yet, when I ask this question in deal reviews, fewer than 5% of sales people can respond.

If the customer can’t identify, independently or with our help, the consequences of not changing, not taking action, not moving forward, they have no need to buy!

We still have a need to sell, and, too often, we continue to pester the customer in our efforts to sell them. Regardless how much we do, how much time we rob from the customer, they won’t–and shouldn’t buy!

To get the answer to this question, we have to, first, identify a problem, issue, opportunity the customer cares about, and recognizes they have—revenue growth, cost reduction, margin improvement, customer acquisition/retention, employee satisfaction/productivity, addressing changes in the market, overcoming competition, addressing new markets.

Once the customer has identified an issue, they can start to identify the consequences of not addressing the issue. This becomes the compelling issue for them to resolve in their buying process.

Understanding the answer to this single question frames everything we do in our subsequent activities with the customer.

• How do we help eliminate the consequences of doing nothing?
• How do we reduce the risk of that change?
• How do we reduce the time to results?
• How do we do this better than anyone else?

All our conversations become less about our product and what we do, but are focused on how we and the customer address the consequences of doing nothing.

Throughout the buying process, we must help the customer keep this issue front and center to everything they are doing. As attention drifts from this, buying stalls—again, the need to buy appears to diminish. Often, they get caught up in the “tasks,” of buying, forgetting why they are buying in the first place.

Helping the customer remember, “these are the consequences for not achieving our goal,” helps keep them focused and moving forward when they lose their way.

The answer to this question is critical not only to helping the customer stay focused, but to helping them accelerate their process to reduce the time to their expected results. “We are doing this to eliminate this problem and achieve these results, the sooner we are able to do so, the greater the value we achieve!”

If there is a secret to sales success, working with the customer in identifying the consequences of doing nothing, or not changing, keeping that front and center in their buying process, is the closest to a secret that I can identify.

If your customer doesn’t know the answer to this, they aren’t buying regardless of how much you try to sell.

If you don’t know the answer to this, you don’t know how to win the deal.

Related Posts:

• The Killer Closing Technique
• Compressing The Sales Cycle
• Do You Know The Answers To These Three Questions?
• But They Really Need The Product!
• “But That’s More Than We Planned To Pay!”

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3 Tips to Remember When Painting the Bathroom

Content originally published and Shared from http://perfectbath.com

One way to completely change the look of your bathroom without actually spending very much is to repaint it. If you’re going to DIY this project, then make sure you keep in mind the following tips:

Photo by Sebastien LE DEROUT on Unsplash

Ensure appropriate ventilation
Make sure your bathroom has proper ventilation. If not, the high levels of humidity can damage your paint. An open window and a ceiling fan or exhaust fan can help clear a room full of steam, removing moisture and drying walls. Try to run your fan for an hour after every shower or bath. Source: Forbes

Pick the right paint
Bathroom windows take a beating: Blinds go up; windows open and close. Candles, blow dryers and other hot items often lie on top of the ledge. So use a durable semigloss or gloss trim paint that can handle the abuse. If the window will take direct rain and wind, chances are that it’ll get wet sooner rather than later, so you may want to use an exterior paint. Source: Houzz

Choose a color that works well with your space
Dark, weighty colors in small spaces often make the user feel claustrophobic. Should you surrender to that classic bathroom color, white? Not necessarily. Light, airy, bright bathroom paint colors such as light-blue or light-yellow always work well. Since darker paint colors make spaces feel small, any type of lighter color will be an improvement.

However, this is not an iron-clad edict. To make darker colors work in bathrooms, include other elements that leaven the ponderous feeling that dark colors bring on. Shiny, reflective chrome or brass sink fixtures or cabinet pulls add bright stars of light to dark spaces. Also, make sure that your bathroom lighting is adequate both for the space and for the color palette. Source: TheSpruce

While you’re on a mission to create a new look for your bathroom, check out the classy fixtures we have on our website.

 

Contact:
Perfect Bath
Phone: Toll Free 1-866-843-1641
Calgary, Alberta
Email: info@perfectbath.com

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Plethora of Progeny

Major League Baseball is becoming the Ivy League:

Second-generation prospects are not limited to the Toronto system, either. ESPN’s Keith Law has San Diego’s Fernando Tatis Jr., another legacy, as the game’s No. 1 prospect, while Pittsburgh’s Ke’Bryan Hayes — son of Charlie — is also a top 20 prospect. And numerous legacy prospects are or will soon be contributing to their big-league clubs: Adalberto Mondesi (son of Raul) is expected to be in the Royals’ starting lineup, Lance McCullers Jr. is a fixture in the Astros’ rotation when healthy, and slugger Cody Bellinger (son of Clay) has already earned an All-Star nod for the Dodgers.

If it seems like the kids of former big leaguers are taking over the sport this spring, it’s because they kind of are — they’re making the majors at rates far greater than the general population.

Whether it’s Guerrero, Bichette, Biggio or another prospect, the next child of a major leaguer to reach the majors will set a record for legacy debuts in a single decade. Entering 2019, the 2010s (44 debuts) are tied with the 1990s for most such debuts, according to Baseball-Reference.com data analyzed by FiveThirtyEight. The share of debuts by sons of major leaguers this decade is the second-highest on record (2.1 percent), and could perhaps challenge the 1990s record (2.3 percent) by the close of the season.

FiveThirtyEight.com

The article discusses how the sons of major league players get exposed to the game early, get to practice at big league facilities, have money to join travel squads, etc. I do disagree with the closing paragraph, however:

While they are the sons of former professional athletes, there are more talented natural athletes that never reach the major leaguers. Their advantages go beyond genetics, and for a variety of reasons, the advantage of being the son of a major leaguer is growing.

Everything is genetics. If I were adopted by a major league player, I would never be good at baseball, no matter how much I hung out with players or practiced swinging and throwing. That’s not where my genetics takes me. All of these players have the genetic advantage, and they then have the ability to bring that to fruition. If you watched the home run derby in 2018 and saw Bryce Harper‘s dad, you know Harper had good genetics behind him and a family that was willing to spend the money so their son could realize his talent. I suspect if you studied MLB athletes, almost all of them had a parent who was a physically gifted person.

Children are like their parents. They can’t help it. DNA is the greatest software ever invented.

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