Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.290 — J.D. Martinez batting against Luke Weaver.
• 0.278 — Wilson Ramos batting against Patrick Corbin.
• 0.276 — Leury Garcia batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.275 — Elvis Andrus batting against Tyler Skaggs.
• 0.275 — Mookie Betts batting against Luke Weaver.
• 0.272 — Anthony Rendon batting against Steven Matz.
• 0.270 — Jose Abreu batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.268 — Melky Cabrera batting against Tanner Roark.
• 0.266 — Tim Anderson batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.266 — Whit Merrifield batting against Matt Moore.

Martinez tries to extend his personal hit streak to 10 games. Both Weaver and Martinez have high three-year hit averages, and they are playing in a park that favors offense.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.290, 0.711 — J.D. Martinez batting against Luke Weaver.
• 0.278, 0.700 — Wilson Ramos batting against Patrick Corbin.
• 0.265, 0.692 — Jean Segura batting against Michael Pineda.
• 0.264, 0.689 — David Peralta batting against David Price.
• 0.275, 0.687 — Mookie Betts batting against Luke Weaver.
• 0.275, 0.685 — Elvis Andrus batting against Tyler Skaggs.
• 0.272, 0.684 — Anthony Rendon batting against Steven Matz.
• 0.266, 0.684 — Whit Merrifield batting against Matt Moore.
• 0.276, 0.681 — Leury Garcia batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.268, 0.678 — Melky Cabrera batting against Tanner Roark.

The two systems are in agreement on the top two pick, so it might be a good day to double down on Wilson Ramos. Ramos only faced Corbin three times, 0 for 2 with a walk and a strikeout, so there’s not a lot of information there.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2CXlNmg