Sunday, July 31, 2016

Shades of 1986

With two on and two out in the top of the ninth inning, the Red Sox score five runs to beat the Angels 5-3. Dustin Pedroia hit a three-run homer to give the Red Sox the lead, and Xander Bogaerts followed with a solo shot for the insurance run. It hearkens back to Game 5 of the 1986 ALCS, where the Red Sox scored four runs in the top of the ninth against the Angels, the last two runs scoring with two out to give the Red Sox a 6-5 lead. The Angels would tie it in the bottom of the ninth, but the Red Sox won it in 11 when Dave Henderson, who hit the two-out homer in the ninth hit a sacrifice fly to drive in the winning run. Huston Street played the role of Donnie Moore today.

The Angels waste another fine outing by Tyler Skaggs. He pitched 5 1/3 innings, and has yet to allow a run in his two starts back from Tommy John surgery.

The Red Sox sit in third place in the AL East, 1 1/2 games separating the top three teams.



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2aHmIfj

Rising Cain

Matt Cain just finished five no-hit innings against the Nationals. He walked four and struck out five. Unfortunately, the Giants won’t let him go long, and Madison Bumgarner pinch hits for Cain leading off the bottom of the fifth. He doubles off the rightfield wall. That’s his third double and fifth extra base hit of the of the season. The Giants lead the Nationals 1-0.



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2amPphW

Mauled by the Tigers

The Astros came into Detroit on the edge of the top two wild card positions, and leave 1 1/2 games behind Detroit after an 11-0 thumping Sunday afternoon. The Tigers outscored the Astros 28-8 in the three games, now it is Detroit that finds itself 1/2 game out of the second wild card slot, pending the outcomes of the Red Sox game against the Angels. The Tigers won six in a row, as their offense came alive for 45 runs.

It’s been a fun year in the AL, with various teams charging, then falling back. I hope it continues for a while.



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2aBaEcA

The Super Goal

The Yankees came to the realization they can no longer simply buy their way into the playoffs:

Cashman all but admitted the Yankees were slow to adapt.

”The chessboard that’s lined up that we’re playing is not the same chessboard that we were playing back when I just started in the late `80s,” he said. ”It’s a recognition of how the industry’s completely different today and the operating standards are completely different today, and there’s just a sounder recognition of that. And if you want to become a super team, there’s certain ways to go about that that you have to strongly consider. And although they may be tough decisions, the one thing the Yankees have always stood for and do stand for is the effort in trying to become a super team.”

Convinced they are unlikely to reach the playoffs this year, the Yankees are pivoting to the future. New York hopes to get under the luxury tax threshold by no later than 2018, which would put the team in prime position to spend again after that season. Bryce Harper, Jose Fernandez, Manny Machado and Clayton Kershaw are among the stars who could be on the market that fall.

That’s the nice thing about being a team with a lot of money. If you can build a good base, it’s easy to add the final pieces via trades and free agency. That’s how they won in the 1990s. We’ll see if they can pull it off again.



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2aCUH7k

Lucroy Says No

Jonathan Lucroy exercised his no-trade clause, killing the trade between the Brewers and the Indians.

http://ift.tt/2aCCQxy

Maybe some other team will be willing to give Lucroy more of a long-term promise. He is seasonal age 30, so he is likely to decline in the next few years, as catchers tend to decline faster than other position players. He may have blown a chance to win a World Series.



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2aqOMyW

It's all just Work, Work, Work (in Progress)



I currently have three projects on the go, and I'd like to share some of my progress. I have taken a back seat to the Stage by Stage Guides this week and concentrated on blocking in base colours on a selection of models. All of the Stage-by-Stage guides I have published so far have been used in some capacity on the ongoing projects I have at present.








Project 1 - Age of Sigmar Khorne Army
Those of you that have been following this blog collective, will know about my rather large Age of Sigmar project. This has been ticking over nicely, and I think I have made good progress since starting out over a month ago. I'm concentrating on the first unit of Blood Reavers as well as a number of characters. With any luck I'll play the game at some point! I have made a resolution not to play the game until I have a fully painted army. I have a track record of losing a damn sight more than I win, and I never paint the army as I lose interest. At least this time I'll be losing with a half decent painted army on the table.




Project 2 - Warhammer 40K Goff Orks (2nd Edition Army)
This is a small project I have started to paint. A good friend of mine and I are going 'Old Skool' and starting to play 2nd Edition 40K. I originally wanted to play with Blood Angels, but he beat me to it! So I thought, what army could I use? I have a fully painted Word Bearers Chaos Space Marine Army, but I wanted to try something different. I had the Orks from Black Reach lying about, so I dug out the old codex and chose a colour scheme. Goffs are the most striking due to the black and white checks on the weapons and armour, and I was sold on the idea.




Project 3 - Age of Sigmar Fyreslayers
This is an even smaller project than the other two, but still worth mentioning. I really like these models and have wanted to paint them for a while now. I used these models as part of my Kickstarter Project, which goes live in August. I primed them in Army Painter Barbarian Flesh as the majority of the model is flesh. Luckily a Jokaero Orange Base paint goes over this primer nicely, so I should be able to bash these guys out in short order.

I will revisit these three projects over the coming months.


from Noobs and their paintbrush http://ift.tt/2aGG83A

Games of the Day

The Orioles try to regain first place in the AL East as they send Chris Tillman against Aaron Sanchez. Tillman tries to become the first 15 game winner in the majors, as he is tied three other American League pitchers and Stephen Strasburg. He holds hitters in check better on the road, with a .204/.281/.354 opposition slash line. Sanchez is an excellent Cy Young candidate based on Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker points. He is just a hair behind Cole Hamels for the American League lead.

The Rockies go for a sweep of the Mets, having held New York to four runs total in the first three games of the series. It will be a tough game for Colorado as they send Chad Bettis against Noah Syndergaard. Bettis is 9-6 despite a 5.19 ERA. He walks very few batters, but gives up about half his home runs with runners on base. He’s allowed 11 of his 15 home runs on the road, despite pitching slightly better away from Coors. Syndergaard’s 9-5 record goes nicely with his 2.45 ERA, although the five losses seem a bit high. He owns a 2.36 ERA at home. In a way, it’s a matchup between a good luck pitcher and a bad luck pitcher (at least in terms of record).

The Red Sox send their potential Cy Young winner, Steven Wright, against the Angels and Tyler Skaggs. Wright allowed 12 home runs in 72 2/3 innings in 2015, just eight in 132 2/3 innings in 2016. Skaggs made a successful return from Tommy John surgery in his first start of the season, holding the Royals to three hits and one walk in seven shutout innings.

Finally, Homer Bailey returns to the Reds rotation as he faces the Padres and Paul Clemens. Bailey made two starts in 2015 before elbow surgery put him on the self. He has a 1.64 career ERA at PETCO Park. Clemens makes his fourth start of the year to go with four relief appearances. As a starter, he allowed seven home runs in 15 innings, walking 10.

Enjoy!



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2anw5OI

Miller Official

The Yankees officially traded Andrew Miller to the Indians:

The Indians are sending back four players, including top prospects Justus Sheffield and Clint Frazier, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney.

Here’s Olney’s account:

Minor league pitchers Ben Heller and J.P. Feyereisen are also heading to New York.

Miller is a terrific relief pitcher, and doesn’t seem to be bothered by his role. He can setup or close.

Frazier is a high OBP outfielder. When I look at his stats, I think Brett Gardner. Sheffield is just seasonal age 20, and in the low minors allowed just 14 home runs in 243 1/3 innings. Feyereisen is blowing away batters at AA, but with a high walk rate. Heller should really be major league ready. He is seasonal age 24 and is posting great three-true outcome numbers this season.

The Yankees got a nice haul of prospects for a relief pitcher. I’m not sure any of them will be a star, but they all should be players that contribute eventually.



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2a9fZto

Indians Going For It

Various rumors indicate the Indians are going to get Andrew Miller and Jonathan Lucroy. The Miller deal seems more definite, while Lucroy has not waived his no-trade. I’ll look at these deals more closely when and if they become official.

It’s good to see the Indians going all in for once.



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2aCjqbX

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.376 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.361 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Cain
0.334 — Wilson Ramos batting against Matt Cain
0.334 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Garza
0.314 — Corey Seager batting against Patrick Corbin
0.311 — James Loney batting against Chad Bettis
0.309 — Ian Desmond batting against Dillon Gee
0.308 — Rougned Odor batting against Dillon Gee
0.307 — Adrian Beltre batting against Dillon Gee
0.307 — Yoenis Cespedes batting against Chad Bettis

It appears some of the top hitters in the league are going against pitchers who allow hits. That’s a pretty good combination. The NN list looks like this:

0.376, 0.792 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.361, 0.773 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Cain.
0.334, 0.746 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Garza.
0.314, 0.734 — Corey Seager batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.334, 0.732 — Wilson Ramos batting against Matt Cain.
0.277, 0.724 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.280, 0.717 — Paulo Orlando batting against Lucas Harrell.
0.311, 0.716 — James Loney batting against Chad Bettis.
0.288, 0.715 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.307, 0.715 — Adrian Beltre batting against Dillon Gee.

I like the agreement between the two models at the top of the list. I find this a good confirmation of the Log5 method. The features that the NN detect are subtle. It’s also easy to add features and just build a new model, as with the park effects.

The NN with the ballpark factored in looks like this:

0.376, 0.795 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.361, 0.777 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Cain.
0.334, 0.751 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Garza.
0.334, 0.740 — Wilson Ramos batting against Matt Cain.
0.314, 0.738 — Corey Seager batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.277, 0.724 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.307, 0.724 — Adrian Beltre batting against Dillon Gee.
0.280, 0.722 — Paulo Orlando batting against Lucas Harrell.
0.311, 0.722 — James Loney batting against Chad Bettis.
0.304, 0.720 — Josh Harrison batting against Matt Garza.

Those are very high probabilities for Altuve and Murphy. It looks like a good day to double down. Even with probabilities that high, however, there still is a 1 in 5 chance of the batter not getting a hit in the game. Good luck!



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2ar0pFC

Rea’s Elbow

Colin Rea left his first start with the Marlins after 3 1/3 innings due to a problem with his elbow:

“Just kind of felt something in my elbow and it gradually got worse throughout the game,” Rea said. “I don’t know if I could have thrown another pitch.”

Catcher Jeff Mathis sensed a change in Rea during the third inning.

“Just that it wasn’t coming out quite as hard as it was in the first and second innings,” Mathis said. “It was the first time I’ve worked with him. It’s just unfortunate. Just hope everything works out.”

Rea was listed as day-to-day and the extent of the injury was not known following the game. Any hint of elbow trouble, though, is alarming with a pitcher.

He felt tightness during his pre-game warm up. This pretty much sounds like what happened to Stephen Strasburg the day he blew out his elbow. Stay tuned.

Rea pitched well up to that point, and the Marlins went on to an 11-0 victory over the Cardinals.



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2aiZ7hp

Sunday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2amfPdI

Saturday, July 30, 2016

Overton Wall

Making his fourth start of the season, Dillon Overton of the Athletics allowed three home runs in 3 1/3 innings. The Indians added a fourth to lead 6-2 in the fourth inning. Overton has now allowed nine home runs in 18 1/3 innings of work. Wow. The highest HR rate in the majors this year for a pitcher with at least 18 innings is Steven Geltz, who allowed 10 home runs in 20 innings.



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2aHkSrO

Little Pink Houses

The team that can’t decide on a closer acquired a new one:

The Washington Nationals found a reliable pitcher for the ninth inning, acquiring All-Star closer Mark Melancon from the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday.

Washington sent reliever Felipe Rivero and pitching prospect Taylor Hearn to the Pirates for Melancon, who supplants struggling Jonathan Papelbon as Washington’s closer. Melancon is expected to join the Nationals on Sunday for their series finale at San Francisco.

Note that the Pirates, who are very much in the wild card race, know that finding a closer is not that big a deal, so were very happy to give up Mark “Cougar” Melancon for two good, young, and cheap arms. It strikes me that the Nationals could have just made Rivero the closer and released Papelbon. They’re going to pay him for nothing anyway.

The Pirates do a good job of taking advantage of Mike Rizzo’s weak spot, a proven closer.



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2a82IBE

Bits and Pieces — July 30, 2016

It’s been a while since I’ve published this random collection of thoughts.  Here are a few things that I think are worth checking out:

Continuous Learning:

In the last Bits and Pieces, I mentioned I was taking the Coursera course on Model Thinking.  I’ve gone on to enroll in Design Thinking For Innovation.

Developing models and frameworks is critical for all sales and business professionals.  As the complexity of our work, our organizations, and our customers skyrockets, we need models and frameworks to help us understand things, to help us evaluate how to most effectively achieve our goals, to help others understand what we are trying to achieve.

Unfortunately, too many people struggle with this.  The courses on model thinking and design thinking are very simple courses to help us understand how to build models–as well as the limitation of models.

Some additional readings:

Virtually any of Russell Ackoff’s books are inspiring sources to better understand problem solving, critical thinking, developing models and frameworks.  While most of these were published in the 60-s-80’s, they remain highly relevant classics.

Likewise, C.West Churchman’s books on Systems Thinking and Decisionmaking are classics and foundations to much of what others have written since.

The great thing about both Ackoff’s and Churchman’s books is that while they deal with very complex issues, they are very readable.

More currently  Business Model Generation and it’s Business Model Canvas have introduced very powerful tools to help develop models and frameworks.

Perhaps to wet your appetites, I’m about 40% through writing the Sales Executive Survival Guide.  Since this book will focus on how sales executives and leaders maximize overall organizational performance (both the sales function and the enterprise), developing models and frameworks to understand how all the pieces/parts of what we do in sales is critical.  A good part of the book focuses on how to develop these and leverage them to drive performance.  To help you in the interim, please look at any or the resources I’ve outlined.

Other Reading: 

I recently completed Steven Pressfield’s Nobody Wants To Read Your Sh*t.  It’s a fast read and an awesome book.  While he is ostensibly writing for writers, his words have deep meaning for anyone trying to communicate with engage, or persuade others.  In addition to learning a huge amount, his writing is hugely fun to read.  For that matter, you should read anything he’s written.

Sales Manager Survival Guide:

I’m overwhelmed and very grateful for the feedback I’m getting on Sales Manager Survival Guide.  The reviews in Amazon are humbling.  Thank you to those who have contributed to the reviews.  I’d love to get feedback and reviews from those of you who haven’t had that opportunity yet.

On a daily basis, I get emails and questions from others.  Thanks so much for those, I really love the opportunity to discuss how to apply some of the ideas I present in the book.

One of the things, I’m having huge fun with is pictures people are sending me of the book–in their office, pictures of them reading the book, and so forth.  In the next few weeks, I’m going to add these pictures to the website.  So please send me your pictures!  Ideally with you in it 😉

Here a few I’ve gotten recently:

SMSG Henrik Gyllander SMSG Jason Young SMSG Lahat Tzvi SMSG Tom Erik Lokken

Just send your pictures to me at dabrock@excellenc.com

Thanks, enjoy your weekends!



from Partners in EXCELLENCE Blog — Making A Difference http://ift.tt/2aEPTiE

Games of the Day

Toronto could move ahead of Baltimore in the AL East race, and they have the advantage in starting pitchers today as the Orioles send Yovani Gallardo against J.A. Happ. Gallardo comes into the game with a 5.37 ERA, mostly due to 33 walks and eight home runs allowed in 62 innings. He’s working on a 4.88 ERA in July. Happ’s 13 wins is a single season career high for him, beating his 12 wins in 2009. He walked just 37 batters in 124 innings this season. He is 8-1 in Toronto this season as well.

Detroit can move past Houston into the third slot in the AL Wild Card race with a win in Detroit today. Mike Fiers leads the Astros against Justin Verlander. Fiers pitched poorly on the road this season, posting a 6.75 ERA. He struck out just 21 batters in 40 innings while allowing seven home runs away from Houston. Verlander looks to finish a strong July. He is 3-0 with a 1.60 ERA in five starts. He struck out 37 in 33 2/3 innings, looking more like his younger self.

Enjoy!



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2a7oG7z

Always Something New

One thing I love about baseball is on any given day, you may see something you’ve never seen before:

The Washington Nationals made history by turning the first 3-3-5 triple play ever in the major leagues then watched as third baseman Anthony Rendon tossed the ball from the milestone moment into the crowd at AT&T Park.

The Giants loaded the bases in the eighth with two walks sandwiched around a single. Brandon Crawford then lined an 0-1 pitch from Sammy Solis to first baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who had entered the game moments earlier as a part of a double switch.

Zimmerman quickly stepped on first base for the second out then threw to third baseman Anthony Rendon to catch Denard Span to complete the triple play.

“Once I caught it I knew I had the double play,” said Zimmerman, who was moved a few steps back before Crawford swung. “Then Tony was jumping up and down with a smile on his face so I just tossed the ball over to him. Got out of a jam just like that.”

Cool. I’m impressed Zimmerman didn’t throw the ball over Rendon’s head. 🙂

The Nationals won 4-1. Washington now holds a six game lead in the NL East, while the Giants lead is down to one game. Max Scherzer moves into third place in Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker points with the fine outing.



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2a7dCHR

Kharis, Vampire Queen Bust from Kabuki Studio - An Unboxing

Today's post sees me unboxing Kharis, the Vampire Queen from Kabuki Studio. She's a 1/8th Scale bust made of resin and comes including a plinth.


Kharis is one of three busts currently available from Kabuki, along with Ky-Ra and Bonny Anne, whom I unboxed almost a year ago (time flies!).

She arrives in a plain cardboard box with a paper wrap around it, so you can see what the model is. Inside the box is enough bubble wrap to keep the piece from shaking around in transit.







Once you get past the bubble wrap, you are met by the following pieces.


With the piece being a bust, the main draw of your focus is to the face, so we'll start there. She's got quite an angular face, as befitting a vampire, along with an elaborate hair do and angular and spiky jewellery. She's caught in the act of licking her lips - the joy of little bits of character like this is that it's up to you to work out why. Has she just finished a meal, just seen a particularly juicy specimen or something else entirely?




The neck joins up to the shoulders with a dual peg system, with a positive and negative on each section to create a stronger bond.



As the head bone connects to the neck bone, the next place we stop on the bust is the, err, bust. With this being a lady from Kabuki, it's a pretty busty bust though unlike Bonny Anne in the link above, everything is covered up.


The theme of spikes is continued as they decorate the top of what I'm taking to be the top of some form of off the shoulder dress. While the chest might be a little OTT for some people's taste, there is some nice sculpting going on with the definition of the colar bones and shoulder blades.


The fabric of the clothing is also nicely  sculpted, as it gives you enough clear surface area to play with it if you wish, while also offering folds and creases for guidance when shading and highlighting.




To keep the decoration and theme going right across the piece, the pedestal that is included with the piece is also detailed with an angular jewel.



The three main components together. There is a raised section in the form of a collar or necklace at the bottom of the neck which helps to hide the join slightly by creating shadow underneath it, which connects up with the jewel which had previously say hovering in mid air on her chest.





Along with the three larger pieces in the kit, there is a bag of smaller pieces. The first two parts go together to form an ornate ruff or collar.







Also in the bag are cuffs for the tops of the arms of the dress and some parts on a sprue to complete her hair do.










Overall I like Kharis. I think she's possibly a little too busty, but the character in the face and the design through the theme are plus points. The cast is nice with few mold lines and limited clean up required. She'll set you back 45 Euros though so some might say she's a little expensive - though at 1/8th Scale she's quite a big bust. Plus, as Kabuki are celebrating relaunching their webstore with their new address, there is 20% off everything in their store this weekend (for 48 hours from the email that was sent around on Friday evening at any rate) so if you fancy her then now would be a good time to grab her?




Want to see what she looks like all painted up? Here is the one Pepa Saadevra painted up for the box art (I bought mine prior to this so the box art was an unpainted version).




from Noobs and their paintbrush http://ift.tt/2aEpmlI