Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Peavy
0.315 — Starling Marte batting against Chase Anderson
0.310 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Bartolo Colon
0.310 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Bartolo Colon
0.309 — Paulo Orlando batting against Martin Perez
0.306 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jake Peavy
0.304 — Melky Cabrera batting against Tom Milone
0.300 — Tyler Naquin batting against Dillon Overton
0.299 — Martin Prado batting against Jaime Garcia
0.299 — Cameron Maybin batting against Michael Fiers

Older pitchers Peavy and Colon seem to be the most hittable today.

The NN produces this list:

0.332, 0.759 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Peavy.
0.276, 0.744 — Jose Altuve batting against Justin Verlander.
0.315, 0.735 — Starling Marte batting against Chase Anderson.
0.309, 0.734 — Paulo Orlando batting against Martin Perez.
0.310, 0.729 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.299, 0.729 — Martin Prado batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.310, 0.723 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.279, 0.721 — Dee Gordon batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.288, 0.719 — Corey Seager batting against Braden A Shipley.
0.297, 0.718 — Francisco Lindor batting against Dillon Overton.

The NN likes Garcia less than Peavy, compared to Log5. Both agree on Daniel Murphy at the top of the list.

The NN with the park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.332, 0.761 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Peavy.
0.276, 0.745 — Jose Altuve batting against Justin Verlander.
0.309, 0.741 — Paulo Orlando batting against Martin Perez.
0.315, 0.740 — Starling Marte batting against Chase Anderson.
0.310, 0.734 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.299, 0.731 — Martin Prado batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.310, 0.730 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.304, 0.723 — Melky Cabrera batting against Tom Milone.
0.306, 0.722 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jake Peavy.
0.297, 0.722 — Francisco Lindor batting against Dillon Overton.
0.279, 0.722 — Dee Gordon batting against Jaime Garcia.

Corey Seager drops out of the top ten, and Wilson Ramos moves up.

While Murphy is the consensus first choice, the double down pick is tougher. Altuve doesn’t make he Log5 list, so Orlando or Marte would seem to be the consensus choice if you want to double down. Note too, that there is a secondary contest to hit .406 for the rest of the season to honor Ted Williams. I may write an NN figure out the probability of a player hitting at least .400 in a game.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2ah3KIy