Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.330 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Cain
0.319 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Cain
0.314 — Daniel Murphy batting against Bud Norris
0.311 — Sandy Leon batting against Matt Cain
0.307 — David Ortiz batting against Matt Cain
0.307 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Matt Cain
0.306 — Starling Marte batting against Chase Anderson
0.305 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden
0.305 — Ryan Braun batting against Jeff Locke
0.298 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Jeff Locke
0.296 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeremy Hellickson

It looks like Log5 is predicting a poor return for Matt Cain with the Giants. It might be a good day to pick a Red Sox player.

The NN produces this list:

0.305, 0.759 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.330, 0.748 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Cain.
0.314, 0.743 — Daniel Murphy batting against Bud Norris.
0.319, 0.737 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Cain.
0.306, 0.734 — Starling Marte batting against Chase Anderson.
0.286, 0.732 — Yunel Escobar batting against Martin Perez.
0.285, 0.731 — Josh Harrison batting against Chase Anderson.
0.294, 0.730 — Martin Prado batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.281, 0.728 — Robinson Cano batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.216, 0.725 — Justin Morneau batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.286, 0.725 — Christian Yelich batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.296, 0.725 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeremy Hellickson.

There is quite a bit of cross over between the two lists, Bogaerts, Betts and Murphy ranking high in both.

The NN with park considerations modifies the list like this:

0.305, 0.719 — Jose Altuve batting against Daniel Mengden.
0.330, 0.713 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Cain.
0.319, 0.703 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Cain.
0.314, 0.702 — Daniel Murphy batting against Bud Norris.
0.306, 0.697 — Starling Marte batting against Chase Anderson.
0.285, 0.694 — Josh Harrison batting against Chase Anderson.
0.286, 0.692 — Yunel Escobar batting against Martin Perez.
0.294, 0.691 — Martin Prado batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.307, 0.691 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Matt Cain.
0.270, 0.688 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Ervin Santana.
0.281, 0.688 — Robinson Cano batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.

So Bogaerts and Betts are the consensus picks. As always, your top pick won’t get a hit 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2a8ilad