Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.334 — Cameron Maybin batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.323 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman
0.319 — Ian Kinsler batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.317 — Victor Martinez batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.317 — Nick Castellanos batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.311 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.307 — Manny Machado batting against Ivan Nova
0.305 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Ivan Nova
0.304 — Martin Prado batting against Aaron Nola
0.303 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Aaron Nola

It looks like the day to put a Tiger in your tank.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.323, 0.766 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.311, 0.749 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.319, 0.745 — Ian Kinsler batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.300, 0.741 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Matt Boyd.
0.246, 0.738 — Justin Morneau batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.304, 0.733 — Martin Prado batting against Aaron Nola.
0.317, 0.732 — Victor Martinez batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.334, 0.730 — Cameron Maybin batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.281, 0.729 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.291, 0.727 — Jose Iglesias batting against Ricky Nolasco.

The park adjustment changes the above list slightly:

0.323, 0.726 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.311, 0.713 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.319, 0.709 — Ian Kinsler batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.300, 0.705 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Matt Boyd.
0.246, 0.698 — Justin Morneau batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.317, 0.697 — Victor Martinez batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.289, 0.697 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Drew Smyly.
0.304, 0.694 — Martin Prado batting against Aaron Nola.
0.334, 0.694 — Cameron Maybin batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.291, 0.693 — Jose Iglesias batting against Ricky Nolasco.

Altuve, Kinsler, and Miguel Cabrera seem to be the consensus picks, as none of the methods like Ricky Nolasco today. There is a short schedule, so he doesn’t have much competition. Remember, 25% of the time, the best pick won’t get a hit.

By the way, way are teams getting Monday off? When I was young, the All-Star break was three days. I seem to remember no days off in the week leading up to the break, and the week returning from the break. It might have even been two weeks. It’s fairly ridiculous that teams get a day off today, but that’s the strange scheduling that results from 15 teams in a league, unbalanced schedules, and interleague play.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/29HJor5