Beat the Streak

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.391 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Perdomo
0.360 — Wilson Ramos batting against Luis Perdomo
0.319 — Jose Altuve batting against Matthew Shoemaker
0.314 — Cameron Maybin batting against Jacob Turner
0.313 — Darwin Barney batting against James Paxton
0.313 — Ian Kinsler batting against Jacob Turner
0.312 — Trea Turner batting against Luis Perdomo
0.307 — Devon Travis batting against James Paxton
0.307 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Jacob Turner
0.305 — Ben Revere batting against Luis Perdomo
0.305 — Victor Martinez batting against Jacob Turner
0.305 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kyle Gibson

The Log5 method pretty much wants you to pick anyone on the Nationals or the Tigers.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.391, 0.786 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.319, 0.763 — Jose Altuve batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.360, 0.743 — Wilson Ramos batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.305, 0.735 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.313, 0.729 — Ian Kinsler batting against Jacob Turner.
0.307, 0.724 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Jacob Turner.
0.299, 0.723 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.297, 0.722 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.314, 0.720 — Cameron Maybin batting against Jacob Turner.
0.289, 0.717 — Starling Marte batting against Zach Eflin.

That’s an impressive probability for Murphy getting a hit off Perdomo.

Including the park modifies the list this way:

0.307, 0.723 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Jacob Turner.
0.319, 0.721 — Jose Altuve batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.391, 0.719 — Daniel Murphy batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.313, 0.719 — Ian Kinsler batting against Jacob Turner.
0.298, 0.709 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jacob Turner.
0.305, 0.705 — Victor Martinez batting against Jacob Turner.
0.305, 0.701 — Ben Revere batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.283, 0.701 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jacob Turner.
0.305, 0.701 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.314, 0.698 — Cameron Maybin batting against Jacob Turner.

Jacob Turner becomes the the pitcher to hit against. The consensus picks are the batting leaders, Murphy and Altuve. Remember, your best picks will take an 0 for 25% of the time.

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