Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.360 — Jose Altuve batting against Tim Lincecum
0.319 — Daniel Murphy batting against Christian Friedrich
0.313 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tom Milone
0.309 — Martin Prado batting against Steven Matz
0.308 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Steven Matz
0.305 — Christian Yelich batting against Steven Matz
0.302 — Mookie Betts batting against Tom Milone
0.301 — Yunel Escobar batting against Michael Fiers
0.299 — Ichiro Suzuki batting against Steven Matz
0.293 — Wilson Ramos batting against Christian Friedrich

It’s a good day to face Steven Matz.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.360, 0.782 — Jose Altuve batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.319, 0.754 — Daniel Murphy batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.313, 0.742 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tom Milone.
0.309, 0.730 — Martin Prado batting against Steven Matz.
0.301, 0.727 — Yunel Escobar batting against Michael Fiers.
0.305, 0.726 — Christian Yelich batting against Steven Matz.
0.302, 0.726 — Mookie Betts batting against Tom Milone.
0.308, 0.726 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Steven Matz.
0.290, 0.718 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Rick Porcello.
0.283, 0.713 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Tyrell Jenkins.

There is quite a bit of agreement in the two lists.

Finally we add a park parameter to the NN and get this list:

0.360, 0.781 — Jose Altuve batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.319, 0.757 — Daniel Murphy batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.313, 0.747 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tom Milone.
0.309, 0.734 — Martin Prado batting against Steven Matz.
0.302, 0.732 — Mookie Betts batting against Tom Milone.
0.308, 0.731 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Steven Matz.
0.305, 0.731 — Christian Yelich batting against Steven Matz.
0.301, 0.728 — Yunel Escobar batting against Michael Fiers.
0.290, 0.726 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Rick Porcello.
0.283, 0.723 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Tyrell Jenkins.

Three programs agree on Jose Altuve and Daniel Murphy. Remember, the best pick will fail to get a hit 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2apupGk