Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.323 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jered Weaver
0.308 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Ubaldo Jimenez
0.308 — Mookie Betts batting against Jered Weaver
0.306 — Martin Prado batting against Michael Wacha
0.306 — Ryan Braun batting against Robbie Ray
0.303 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Michael Wacha
0.299 — Yunel Escobar batting against David Price
0.297 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Jered Weaver
0.295 — Christian Yelich batting against Michael Wacha
0.293 — Sandy Leon batting against Jered Weaver

Sandy Leon plate appearances are starting to get high enough that the regression toward the mean isn’t pulling him down as much. He’s one of many Red Sox players the Log5 method likes today.

The NN produces this list:

0.323, 0.747 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jered Weaver.
0.292, 0.741 — Daniel Murphy batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.306, 0.730 — Martin Prado batting against Michael Wacha.
0.299, 0.730 — Yunel Escobar batting against David Price.
0.308, 0.727 — Mookie Betts batting against Jered Weaver.
0.308, 0.723 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.303, 0.722 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Michael Wacha.
0.306, 0.721 — Ryan Braun batting against Robbie Ray.
0.295, 0.715 — Christian Yelich batting against Michael Wacha.
0.271, 0.713 — Paulo Orlando batting against Cole Hamels.

The NN prefers Murphy against Cueto instead of Nunez against Jimenez. In this case, it likes the better hitter over the more hittable pitcher.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.323, 0.749 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jered Weaver.
0.292, 0.742 — Daniel Murphy batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.306, 0.732 — Martin Prado batting against Michael Wacha.
0.299, 0.731 — Yunel Escobar batting against David Price.
0.308, 0.730 — Mookie Betts batting against Jered Weaver.
0.308, 0.728 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.306, 0.727 — Ryan Braun batting against Robbie Ray.
0.303, 0.726 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Michael Wacha.
0.271, 0.719 — Paulo Orlando batting against Cole Hamels.
0.295, 0.718 — Christian Yelich batting against Michael Wacha.

The two NN argree on the top six. Bogaerts is the unanimous first pick. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2a6zM8t