Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.335 — Devon Travis batting against Luis Perdomo
0.328 — Darwin Barney batting against Luis Perdomo
0.321 — Kevin Pillar batting against Luis Perdomo
0.320 — Josh Donaldson batting against Luis Perdomo
0.315 — Michael Saunders batting against Luis Perdomo
0.312 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Dylan Bundy
0.310 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Dylan Bundy
0.299 — Drew Hutchison batting against Luis Perdomo
0.299 — Paulo Orlando batting against Matthew Shoemaker

The Log5 method dislikes Luis Perdomo do much, a number of Toronto pitchers are in the top 20.

The NN is a little more generous to the pitcher:

0.290, 0.749 — Jose Altuve batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.312, 0.729 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.335, 0.727 — Devon Travis batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.264, 0.725 — Daniel Murphy batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.299, 0.724 — Paulo Orlando batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.310, 0.721 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.294, 0.717 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.285, 0.716 — Corey Seager batting against Matt Moore.
0.292, 0.716 — Robinson Cano batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.269, 0.714 — Yunel Escobar batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.278, 0.714 — Martin Prado batting against Zach Eflin.

The NN when taking park into consideration:

0.290, 0.747 — Jose Altuve batting against Masahiro Tanaka.
0.335, 0.734 — Devon Travis batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.312, 0.734 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.299, 0.729 — Paulo Orlando batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.310, 0.727 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.264, 0.727 — Daniel Murphy batting against Carlos Carrasco.
0.294, 0.726 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.328, 0.721 — Darwin Barney batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.292, 0.721 — Robinson Cano batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.321, 0.719 — Kevin Pillar batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.285, 0.719 — Corey Seager batting against Matt Moore.

Devon Travis and DJ LeMahieu appear to be the three-way consensus pick, but Altuve is always a good choice. Remember, your best pick is going to fail 25% of the time. Good luck!

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