Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.361 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tim Lincecum
0.346 — Mookie Betts batting against Tim Lincecum
0.335 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Tim Lincecum
0.332 — Sandy Leon batting against Tim Lincecum
0.330 — David Ortiz batting against Tim Lincecum
0.322 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Leake
0.319 — Melky Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.317 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Leake
0.316 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeff Samardzija
0.315 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Boyd

Off-hand, I would say Tim Lincecum’s comeback is not going well. Left-handed batters are hitting him hard, and right-handers are just wailing on him.

0.361, 0.766 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.315, 0.764 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Boyd.
0.316, 0.752 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.346, 0.747 — Mookie Betts batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.322, 0.740 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Leake.
0.299, 0.732 — Yunel Escobar batting against Rick Porcello.
0.335, 0.731 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.299, 0.731 — Dee Gordon batting against Mike Leake.
0.317, 0.730 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Leake.
0.304, 0.726 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Steven Matz.
0.319, 0.726 — Melky Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco.

Dee Gordon went 0 for 4 in his return to the majors Thursday night. He has appeared in the top ten of the NN list during most of this time, but I removed him because he was suspended. Now that he is back, I suggest taking this probability with a grain of salt, because we don’t know how much the PEDs influence the accomplishments of his past seasons. Note that the NN gives Jose Altuve and Daniel Murphy big boosts, which may give you an idea that the NN values the batter’s accomplishments more than the pitcher’s ability to stop hits. This is probably correct, since the defense behind the pitcher has a lot to do with stopping hits.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.361, 0.768 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.315, 0.766 — Jose Altuve batting against Matt Boyd.
0.316, 0.754 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.346, 0.750 — Mookie Betts batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.322, 0.743 — Martin Prado batting against Mike Leake.
0.335, 0.736 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.299, 0.735 — Yunel Escobar batting against Rick Porcello.
0.319, 0.735 — Melky Cabrera batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.317, 0.735 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Mike Leake.
0.299, 0.733 — Dee Gordon batting against Mike Leake.

All three evaluations put Bogaerts at the top of the list. As always, your best picks are going to go hitless about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2aBejtX