Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Melky Cabrera batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.324 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Garza
0.321 — Daniel Murphy batting against Julio Urias
0.317 — Justin Morneau batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.313 — Tim Anderson batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.312 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tyler Duffey
0.308 — Jose Abreu batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.305 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.304 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.304 — Mookie Betts batting against Tyler Duffey

It looks like a good day to pick someone from the Rockies or White Sox.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.317, 0.768 — Justin Morneau batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.304, 0.744 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.321, 0.741 — Daniel Murphy batting against Julio Urias.
0.312, 0.741 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.324, 0.739 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Garza.
0.332, 0.739 — Melky Cabrera batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.301, 0.735 — Josh Harrison batting against Matt Garza.
0.294, 0.734 — Charles Blackmon batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.308, 0.734 — Jose Abreu batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.305, 0.733 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Mike Foltynewicz.

I have to continue to caution against picking Morneau. I’d wait a few games to see if he can really still hit.

The NN with park considerations modifies the list like this:

0.317, 0.728 — Justin Morneau batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.304, 0.718 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.294, 0.708 — Charles Blackmon batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.312, 0.707 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.305, 0.707 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.283, 0.706 — Nolan Arenado batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.282, 0.702 — Gerardo Parra batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.324, 0.702 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Garza.
0.321, 0.701 — Daniel Murphy batting against Julio Urias.
0.285, 0.700 — Ender Inciarte batting against Chad Bettis.

Take the Colorado hitter of your choice. LeMahieu and Blackmon seem to be the consensus picks. As always, the player you choose is going to fail to get at hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2adhAQ4