Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.316 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jake Peavy
0.316 — Cameron Maybin batting against Tom Milone
0.315 — Jose Altuve batting against Dillon Overton
0.310 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kyle Lohse
0.308 — Mookie Betts batting against Jake Peavy
0.305 — Ian Desmond batting against Tim Lincecum
0.304 — Jurickson Profar batting against Tim Lincecum
0.303 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.302 — Ian Kinsler batting against Tom Milone
0.301 — Sandy Leon batting against Jake Peavy

Log5 likes the Red Sox against Jake Peavy. Jurickson Profar, now than he has well over 100 PA, is starting to creep into the top ten.

The NN produces this list:

0.315, 0.759 — Jose Altuve batting against Dillon Overton.
0.283, 0.750 — Justin Morneau batting against Wade Miley.
0.310, 0.746 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kyle Lohse.
0.316, 0.737 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jake Peavy.
0.279, 0.736 — Buster Posey batting against Rick Porcello.
0.275, 0.730 — Robinson Cano batting against Jose Quintana.
0.290, 0.730 — Daniel Murphy batting against Scott Kazmir.
0.300, 0.729 — Manny Machado batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.303, 0.729 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.295, 0.728 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Tom Milone.

It’s the usual cast of characters. I would be wary of Morneau. He has great numbers when you look at him for three years, but he is 1 for 9 in 2016, so the NN still sees him as an average hitter this season. He didn’t hit well in his minor league stint.

Taking the park into account produces this list:

0.315, 0.719 — Jose Altuve batting against Dillon Overton.
0.283, 0.710 — Justin Morneau batting against Wade Miley.
0.310, 0.705 — Yunel Escobar batting against Kyle Lohse.
0.316, 0.703 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jake Peavy.
0.279, 0.703 — Buster Posey batting against Rick Porcello.
0.280, 0.699 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Blake Snell.
0.308, 0.694 — Mookie Betts batting against Jake Peavy.
0.295, 0.693 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Tom Milone.
0.303, 0.693 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.275, 0.690 — Robinson Cano batting against Jose Quintana.

It looks like a typical day, with Altuve, Escobar, and Bogaerts the top picks. As always, your best picks will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2a5zBwu