Pitching and Defense

As the Cubs and Nationals are about to take the field their pitching numbers seem to be much closer than their ERAs runs allowed indicate. The Cubs lead the NL with 2.84 runs allowed per games (RA/G), while the Nationals rank third at 3.43 RA/G. The Nationals, however, have slightly better three-true outcomes. On a per nine basis, Washington pitchers have struck out 9.5 batters per nine innings compared to the Cubs 8.9. The Nationals walk 2.8 batters per nine innings compared to the Cubs 2.9. The Cubs do hold an edge in home runs, .770 per nine compare to .965 per nine for the Nationals. The Nationals give up an extra hit per nine innings compared to the Cubs. A little of that is the extra home runs, but some of that comes from the difference in defense.

When you look at the defensive measures at FanGraphs, you’ll that while Washington is good, the Cubs are outstanding. The Cubs defense does more than any other team in the league to turn a batted ball into an out. It’s important to remember that these effects are not linear; turning batted balls into outs reduces the opponents OBP, and runs are exponential in OBP. So small difference can have large effects.

The Nationals can afford a slightly worse defense because they strike out so many batters. So far, however, despite pitching that’s likely a little better than the Cubs, they are allowing many more runs.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/1U4LEI5