Over the All-Star break I’d like to review the six divisions to see where teams stand and how they might be positioned for the rest of the season. The series continues with the AL Central. The Indians hold a 6 1/2 game lead over the Tigers, and 20 games separate the division top to bottom.
Cleveland Indians 52-36, .591
Team Strengths: The pitching and defense combine to allow the fewest runs per game in the AL. The pitchers as a group have better than average three-true outcomes rates, and the defense ranks first in UZR/150. The Indians appear to be be very fast. They are tied for the league lead in triples and steal bases at over an 80% clip. In fact, I get the impression that they score more runs than they should based on their batting numbers, and speed may be the reason. They own the second highest power-speed number in the league, only trailing the Astros. They are also good at hitting sacrifice flies.
Team Weaknesses: The offense is below average in getting on base, and exacerbates that by hitting into a lot of double plays. It’s a pretty minor complaint.
The Indians look like they are going to get Michael Brantley back for the last two months of the season, which should make the offense even better.
Detroit Tigers 46-43, .517
Team Strengths: The Tigers are a pretty average team. The offense does have a good slugging percentage, with a high isolated power. The hitters also post a good BABIP, so it’s another data point that they hit the ball hard.
Team Weaknesses: The pitchers rank low in K per 9 IP. That means lots of balls in play for a poorly ranked defense in terms of range. The weakness of the staff and the defense combine for a very high number of runs allowed.
There are some old players on this team who are going to be there a while. While they are in general good, they will decline, making it tough for the Tigers to dig out of the age hole.
Chicago White Sox 45-43, .511
Team Strengths: The offenses 20 triples are tied for the league lead. The relief pitching is outstanding, and they are especially good at keeping the ball in the park. Chris Sale and Jose Quintana give the White Sox an impressive front of the rotation.
Team Weaknesses: The offense overall does not get on base nor hit for power much. The three pitchers at the back of the rotation all lack something major in the three-true outcomes.
The White Sox are a game over .500 after a strong start. Like the Tigers, they mostly look like a league average team, with a little worse offense and a little better pitching than Detroit.
Kansas City Royals 45-43, .511
Team Strengths: Strikeouts are the team’s strength. The batters strike out infrequently and the pitchers record strikeouts at a high rate. The Royals defense is good as well. The Royals base runners steal well.
Team Weaknesses: The Royals batting average hides their lack of walks and extra base hits. The many balls in play are not making up for the lack of base runners this season.
The Royals remind me of quantum theory. Basically, if you know the number of hydrogen atoms and the temperature, you can calculate the most likely distribution of energy states for the electrons in the collection of atoms. It’s a probabilistic model, not meant to be exact, but to give one an idea of how likely a particular atom is to be in a particular energy state. Statistical pundits were unimpressed with the Royals offense going into the 2015 season, and through the team would not repeat the playoff run. They looked at the distribution of runs you might expect for that type of offense, and the most likely energy states were low. The Royals wound up in an outlier state and won the World Series. This year, their offense averages are nearly the same in BA, OBP, and slugging percentage, and the team is not doing that well. Most years, those averages will not produce a good result. The statistical pundits stuck to their guns, and it looks like this season they will be right.
Minnesota Twins, 32-56, .364
Team Strengths: Twins batters are good at one-run strategies. They steal well, and they sacrifice more than most AL teams. They also pick up a lot of walks, and preserve their runners by hitting into few double plays. The pitchers are good at preventing walks.
Team Weaknesses: The pitching and defense allows the highest runs per game in the AL, 5.30. All other AL defense are under five runs per game. Home runs are big bugaboo of the staff.
The Twins have played better lately but it’s the offense scoring a ton of runs, rather than the pitching improving.
Conclusions: This is Cleveland’s division. The three other contenders look more like .500 teams than division champions. They are still close enough that improving at the trade deadline could put them back in the division race.
I will admit I’d love to see a World Series between the Cubs and Indians, just so one of the long championship droughts will disappear.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/29Rdqu3
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