Over the All-Star break I’d like to review the six divisions to see where teams stand and how they might be positioned for the rest of the season. The series continues with the NL Central. The Cubs hold a 7 game lead over the Cardinals, and 21 1/2 games separate the division top to bottom.
Chicago Cubs 53-35, .602
Team Strengths: The Cubs own the best offense in the National League, scoring 5.23 runs per game. They are what people think of when they think of a Moneyball offense. They are middle of the road in batting average at .256, but post a .348 OBP, the best in the league. They drew 50 more walks than their nearest competitor, the Giants and get hit by pitches a lot. On of that, they collect a ton of extra base hits, which come in handy when the bases are clogged with runners. The starting pitchers are outstanding, with a 3.09 ERA and great three-true outcomes. The Cubs defense is excellent at turning batted balls into outs.
Team Weaknesses: The bullpen is a weak spot that in general is hidden by the strong starting pitching. The age of the rotation may be coming into play. During the recent Cubs slide, the starters did not go deep in games. That exposed the bullpen to more innings and more troubles.
The latest trend in building a pitching staff is to acquire starters who can pitch okay for six innings, then bring in three high strikeout relievers to finish the game. The Cubs went more old-school, trying to get the most out of their starters and the least out of the pen. That may be backfiring.
St. Louis Cardinals 46-42, .523
Team Strengths: The offense generates a lot of extra base hits, and they do it without striking out very much. The pitching staff is very good at preventing hits and extra-base hits, especially home runs, despite not striking out many batters.
Team Weaknesses: The defensive range of the team is poor, which makes the low hit total allowed even more impressive. The Cardinals do not steal well. They attempt steal infrequently, and their success rate is poor.
Starting the second half without Matt Carpenter hurts. The organization, however, has a way of bringing up good replacements (see Aledmys Diaz). There is also potential for improvement in the starting rotation, as Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha own better FIPs than ERAs.
Pittsburgh Pirates 46-43, .517
Team Strengths: Offense does a very good job of getting on base, both by hits and walks. They do an excellent job of stealing bases, running often with a better than 75% success rate. Like the Cubs, the Pirates batters get hit by pitches often. Bullpen remains excellent.
Team Weaknesses: The offense lacks home run power. They also hit few sacrifice flies, and the two may be the reason they leave a ton of runners on base. The pitching in general is below average in three-true outcomes. The pitching philosophy that turned around a number of pitching careers seems to be failing with the starters in 2016.
Things might get better if Andrew McCutchen returns to form in the second half. The offense is pretty good with him having an off year. I also wonder if opponents caught on to the pitching philosophy and found a way to adjust?
By the way, the window may be closing on the Pirates World Championship hopes. The offense is tied with the Mets for oldest in the NL.
Milwaukee Brewers 38-49, .437
Team Strengths: The offense draws a lot of walks and is excellent at stealing bases. The pitching staff has been extremely effective with the bases loaded. In 90 batters faced in that situation, they allowed 16 hits, 15 of them singles, three walks, and four sacrifice flies.
Team Weaknesses: The high walk total of the batters is balanced by a high strikeout total. That not bad by itself, but there is a distinct lack of power that goes with the strikeouts. The pitching is poor across the board, with poor three-true outcome rates. The pitching is not helped by an offense that is below average at turning batted balls into outs.
While there is not much in the way of positives for the Brewers, the team does have good plate discipline. The batters have the lowest O-Swing% in the league (they don’t swing at pitches out of the strike zone). Maybe that’s a skill that can build toward a better offense in future seasons. On the other hand, they have problems making contact on pitches in the strike zone.
Cincinnati Reds 32-57, .360
Team Strengths: The offense hits well with runners in scoring position, and even better with the bases loaded.
Team Weaknesses: The offense doesn’t get on base enough to generate enough RISP situations to make a difference. The pitching is dreadful. The staff allows the most home runs and walks in the league. They balk the most and hit the most batters. There really is nothing positive to say about the hurlers.
The Reds have a huge rebuild on their hands when it comes to the pitching staff.
Conclusions: I still think the Cubs are one of the best teams ever. I am a bit surprised that the pitching staff showed signs of wear and tear. They might want to think of getting a sixth starter, and using him to allow the other five to skip a start or two in August. I also suspect the Cardinals and Pirates will play better in the second half and fight for the wild card.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/29zcHLx
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