Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.335 — Xander Bogaerts batting against James Paxton
0.329 — Jose Altuve batting against Marcus Stroman
0.319 — Mookie Betts batting against James Paxton
0.312 — Sandy Leon batting against James Paxton
0.308 — Dustin Pedroia batting against James Paxton
0.303 — Robinson Cano batting against Eduardo Rodriguez
0.302 — David Ortiz batting against James Paxton
0.294 — Daniel Murphy batting against Archie Bradley
0.289 — Tyler Naquin batting against Jose Berrios
0.286 — Jackie Bradley, Jr. batting against James Paxton

It’s not a good day to be James Paxton.

The NN produces this list:

0.329, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.335, 0.753 — Xander Bogaerts batting against James Paxton.
0.294, 0.740 — Daniel Murphy batting against Archie Bradley.
0.319, 0.732 — Mookie Betts batting against James Paxton.
0.303, 0.719 — Robinson Cano batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.308, 0.715 — Dustin Pedroia batting against James Paxton.
0.281, 0.708 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jose Berrios.
0.260, 0.707 — Martin Prado batting against Kyle Hendricks.
0.268, 0.706 — Paulo Orlando batting against Chris Archer.
0.289, 0.703 — Tyler Naquin batting against Jose Berrios.
0.312, 0.703 — Sandy Leon batting against James Paxton.

Daniel Murphy moves up, but Altuve and Bogaerts remain at the top. Murphy hasn’t started the last two games due to an injury.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.329, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.335, 0.754 — Xander Bogaerts batting against James Paxton.
0.294, 0.744 — Daniel Murphy batting against Archie Bradley.
0.319, 0.734 — Mookie Betts batting against James Paxton.
0.303, 0.722 — Robinson Cano batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.308, 0.719 — Dustin Pedroia batting against James Paxton.
0.281, 0.712 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jose Berrios.
0.289, 0.710 — Tyler Naquin batting against Jose Berrios.
0.312, 0.710 — Sandy Leon batting against James Paxton.
0.260, 0.708 — Martin Prado batting against Kyle Hendricks.

Not much of a difference. It’s an AB day, with Altuve and Bogaerts the top picks. As always, there is about a 25% chance that your best picks won’t get a hit.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2aIMuzg