Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.354 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chad Bettis
0.331 — Wilson Ramos batting against Chad Bettis
0.319 — Jose Altuve batting against Jaime Garcia
0.308 — Martin Prado batting against Anthony DeSclafani
0.307 — Trea Turner batting against Chad Bettis
0.300 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Anthony DeSclafani
0.298 — Dee Gordon batting against Anthony DeSclafani
0.296 — Mookie Betts batting against Yovani Gallardo
0.296 — Yunel Escobar batting against Ariel Miranda
0.295 — Sandy Leon batting against Yovani Gallardo

Looks like it’s a good night to be hitting for the Nationals or the Marlins. I’m impressed that the Log5 is already bringing Trea Turner into the mix.

The NN produces this list:

0.354, 0.770 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chad Bettis.
0.319, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.298, 0.736 — Dee Gordon batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.308, 0.735 — Martin Prado batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.331, 0.733 — Wilson Ramos batting against Chad Bettis.
0.296, 0.727 — Mookie Betts batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.287, 0.726 — Corey Seager batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.294, 0.726 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.267, 0.725 — Paulo Orlando batting against Justin Verlander.
0.290, 0.722 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.296, 0.722 — Yunel Escobar batting against Ariel Miranda.

I think the NN does a better job of recognizing short term success for a small sample size, as Turner disappears.

The NN with the park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.354, 0.779 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chad Bettis.
0.319, 0.766 — Jose Altuve batting against Jaime Garcia.
0.331, 0.746 — Wilson Ramos batting against Chad Bettis.
0.308, 0.739 — Martin Prado batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.298, 0.739 — Dee Gordon batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.290, 0.732 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Gio Gonzalez.
0.296, 0.732 — Mookie Betts batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.294, 0.730 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.287, 0.728 — Corey Seager batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.267, 0.728 — Paulo Orlando batting against Justin Verlander.

Once again, Murphy and Altuve stand out head and shoulders above everyone else. Remember, your best picks will fail to get a hit 25% of the time. Good luck!

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