Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.326 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Cain
0.322 — Paulo Orlando batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.314 — Jean Segura batting against Jonathon Niese
0.307 — Josh Harrison batting against Matt Cain
0.301 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jonathan Gray
0.300 — Adam Frazier batting against Matt Cain
0.297 — Martin Prado batting against Homer Bailey
0.296 — Jose Altuve batting against Carlos Martinez
0.294 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Ivan Nova
0.292 — Buster Posey batting against Ivan Nova
0.292 — Angel Pagan batting against Ivan Nova

The game between the Pirates and the Giants looks like a good one for finding players to collect hits, as Nova faces Cain.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.296, 0.759 — Jose Altuve batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.322, 0.750 — Paulo Orlando batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.301, 0.745 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.326, 0.739 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Cain.
0.289, 0.733 — Dee Gordon batting against Homer Bailey.
0.297, 0.730 — Martin Prado batting against Homer Bailey.
0.282, 0.722 — Corey Seager batting against Jake Thompson.
0.314, 0.721 — Jean Segura batting against Jonathon Niese.
0.307, 0.719 — Josh Harrison batting against Matt Cain.
0.287, 0.716 — Yunel Escobar batting against Cody Martin.

The Giants batters fall off the list, but the Pirates batters remain. So far, Orlando seems like the consensus choice.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.296, 0.757 — Jose Altuve batting against Carlos Martinez.
0.301, 0.753 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.322, 0.753 — Paulo Orlando batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.326, 0.745 — Starling Marte batting against Matt Cain.
0.289, 0.736 — Dee Gordon batting against Homer Bailey.
0.297, 0.735 — Martin Prado batting against Homer Bailey.
0.314, 0.731 — Jean Segura batting against Jonathon Niese.
0.307, 0.725 — Josh Harrison batting against Matt Cain.
0.282, 0.725 — Corey Seager batting against Jake Thompson.
0.287, 0.721 — Yunel Escobar batting against Cody Martin.

Orlando and Murphy are tied, and Corey Seager moves down a bit. Orlando and Starling Marte seem to be the concensus top two picks.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2b3M2Zp