The 2019 series on team offense continues with the Houston Astros. The Astros finished sixth in the majors and fifth in the American League in 2018 with 4.92 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That A.J. Hinch order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 5.53
- Probable lineup: 5.47
- Worst lineup: 5.29
- Regressed lineup: 4.90
The Astros have the lowest spread of the six teams analyzed so far, 0.24 runs per game. That means they own not only a very good lineup, but a very balanced lineup. Houston also manages to capture 75% of the theoretical best lineup, which a nice level given the number of good lineups that can be produced.
The LAT sees an offensive surge by the team after a bit of a down year in 2018. Carlos Correa should bounce back from an injury plagued season, and Michael Brantley is a nice addition to the order. With so much talent, the Astros should be able to keep their batters well rested throughout the season.
Another advantage of the balanced lineup is that players can slot where they are most comfortable. Jose Altuve should probably bat higher than third. George Springer should probably bat behind the table setters. Both batters are very comfortable in their given slots, however, and their is no reason to upset them by switching them in the order. It should be another good offensive year in Houston.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet. If you like this series, consider a donation to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.
Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction (From last year, still using the same methods and regression equation.)
- Boston Red Sox
- New York Yankees
- Cleveland Indians
- Oakland Athletics
- Los Angeles Dodgers
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