What’s Wrong with the Marlins Offense?

With Don Mattingly and Barry Bonds joining the Marlins field operations, I expected to see some improvement in the Marlins scoring in 2016. Nearly three weeks into the season, however, Miami ranks 13th in the NL in runs per game, at 4.14. That’s an improvement in over all scoring, as they averaged 3.78 runs per game in 2015, but only a slight improvement in their standing, having ranked 14th last season.

The team is doing a better job of getting on base, something you might expect from a Bonds team. Their .321 OBP ranks sixth in the NL. Their .377 slugging percentage, however, is down from 2015, and ranks 11th in the NL. One would think that ranking sixth in OBP and 11th in slugging percentage would rank the Marlins higher in runs per game.

It does not appear to be bad luck. Miami batters get on base well leading off an inning, and they deliver with men in scoring position. They have created some outs on the bases, hitting into 18 double plays (tied for second in the NL) and were caught stealing four times in just 11 attempts.

The real problem appears to be the distribution of talent in the lineup and the positioning of the talented players relative to each other. (This isn’t intrinsic talent, but how the lineup actually plays out.) The splits link above contain a section on lineup slot. Note that two slots do extremely well. The number three hitters own a .407/.535/.593 slash line. The number six hitters come in at .333/.433/.544. There isn’t much around them right now. With two slots separating them on one side, and five on the other, the two slots don’t reinforce each other much. The good news is the two batters taking up these slots are Christian Yelich and Justin Bour. Giancarlo Stanton should come around at some point, and those three together could make an excellent middle of the lineup. I suspect Dee Gordon will do a better job getting on base at the top of the order as well.

So the main thing wrong with the Marlins offense is two important players have not started hitting yet. An improvement in OBP without Gordon and Stanton is a good sign, and don’t be surprised to see the Marlins have a very high scoring run of games in the near future.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/1T71Szg