Over the All-Star break I’d like to review the six divisions to see where teams stand and how they might be positioned for the rest of the season. The series finishes with the AL East. The Orioles hold a 2 game lead over the Red Sox and Blue Jays, and 17.5 games separate the division top to bottom. It is the only truly competitive division race at the All-Star break.
Baltimore Orioles 51-36, .586
Team Strengths: The Orioles hit the most home runs in the American League. They also hit a high number of doubles. With all their power they leave few men on base. Their pitchers allow very few home runs, so the team is +38 on the long ball.
Team Weaknesses: The Orioles don’t walk much for a power hitting team. The three-true outcomes for the pitchers are all on the wrong side of league average.
The Orioles are very well geared for their home park. They are +24 in home runs at home, outscoring their opponents 246-198. They are +15 home runs away, being outscored 203-196. They have played seven more home than road games, so those games evening out could hurt them in the second half.
Boston Red Sox 49-38, .563
Team Strengths: The Red Sox own the best offense in the American League, scoring 5.63 runs per game, 0.55 more than any other team. They lead the league in doubles by a wide margin, and are second in triples. Their .292 BA is 20 points higher than any other team. Red Sox pitchers strike out a good number of batters, and by doing so limit the number of opponent hits.
Team Weaknesses: The low hits allowed does not apply to the starters, who are not only allowing many more hits than innings pitched, but 75 HR in 511 innings, 29.4 HR per 200 IP. Pair that with a high HBP rate by the staff, and those extra base hits allowed are doing a lot of damage. The Red Sox batters hit into a number of double plays, but with their high OBP, they give the opposition lots of opportunities.
Boston shows that winning is not always about pitching. The Red Sox staff over all is rather poor, but they are not as bad as the offense is good. It would help if David Price righted himself.
It looks like the Red Sox traded for Drew Pomeranz.
Toronto Blue Jays 51-40, .560
Team Strengths: Like the Orioles and Red Sox, the Blue Jays collect lots of extra base hits. The tend to do well in each category, doubles, triples, and home runs. They don’t single much, but they do walk, making them look like a Moneyball offense, where batting average explains a small amount of their run scoring. The pitchers and defense allow the second lowest runs per game in the AL. They are very good at limiting walks and home runs. They field well, helping the pitching staff reign in the hits.
Team Weaknesses: The batters are tied with the Angels for most GDPs in the league. They also strike out a lot, which explains the low batting average.
Toronto has the best pitching of these three contenders, and a very potent offense. They may be poised for another late season run.
New York Yankees 44-44, .500
Team Strengths: The Yankees shutdown bullpen is the biggest strength of the team. They are a big reason the Yankees are above average in strikeout rate and walk rate. Their FIP is the third best in the league.
Team Weaknesses: This team does not hit for power. They collected the fewest total bases in the AL. Despite the great FIP, the starters tend to give up a lot of runs. Michael Pineda is the prime example. Lots of strikeouts, few walks, but a 5.38 ERA.
It’s too bad the Yankees could not get Carlos Beltran and Alex Rodriguez to have a last, great season in the same year. They might have won a division title. Still, the pitching staff had some bad luck in the first half, and if they rebound, the wild card is not out of the question.
Tampa Bay Rays 34-54, .386
Team Strengths: Like three of the other four teams, the Rays collect extra base hits. The pitching staff is very good at striking out batters.
Team Weaknesses: The Rays defense is awful. The high strikeout rate of the pitchers have not led to a low number of hits allowed. The low OBP of the team means all that power doesn’t do much damage.
I saw a comment on a Rays site recently that the team was not fundamentally sound. I wonder if that goes back to losing Joe Maddon? A hallmark of that era was a great defensive team, as the Rays often gave up offense at first base for better defense.
Conclusions: I like the Blue Jays in the second half, but if Price and Pomeranz prove productive pitchers, the Red Sox will give them a run for their money. Dan Duquette continues to do a great job in Baltimore finding talent, so this should be a fun race, and maybe the only chance for a massive tie.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/29LA48R
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