Over the All-Star break I’d like to review the six divisions to see where teams stand and how they might be positioned for the rest of the season. The series continues with the AL West. The Rangers, with the best record in the American League, hold a 5 1/2 game lead over Houston, and 16 1/2 games separate the division top to bottom. That’s the smallest top to bottom lead in the the majors.
Texas Rangers 54-36, .600
Team Strengths: The offense puts the ball in play. They rank in the lower half of the league in both strikeouts and walks. The team wins lots of close games, as they are 19-7 in one run contests. That might also be luck, as opposed to an actual skill. They are seven games over their Pythagorean win projection. The offense hits very well with runners in scoring position.
Team Weaknesses: The Texas pitchers may be the worst three-true outcome team in the American League. They own the lowest strikeouts per nine innings in the AL, while giving up lots of walks and home runs.
Getting Yu Darvish back healthy would help the three-true outcomes a bit. Getting Prince Fielder to hit like a designated hitter would help a lot. It is rather remarkable that the Rangers are in first place without much from either of those players.
Houston Astros 48-41, .539
Team Strengths: Great offense at infield skill positions, shortstop and second base. The batters draw a ton of walks. Pitchers are good at limiting walks and recording strikeouts, so opponents don’t get many hits. Bullpen is. especially good at three-true outcomes. The low hits are also helped by a very good defense.
Team Weaknesses: Not many hits go with the number of walks drawn by the offense, so the Astros leave a lot of runners on base. Starting pitching has been week, so the bullpen is getting a lot of innings. First basemen as a group are very weak hitters.
The good news for both Texas and Houston is that an offensive problem at first or designated hitter should be fairly easy to fix.
Seattle Mariners 45-44, .506
Team Strengths: The offense hits lots of home runs, second most in the AL at 132. The batters also get hit by pitches quite a bit. The pitching staff owns a 3.95 ERA, much better than their FIP of 4.25.
Team Weaknesses: The lower than FIP ERA is a surprise, since the defense rates low in range according to UZR. That might suggest the pitchers are inducing poor contact. The power of the batters seem limited to home runs, as their doubles and triples do not rank high. The team
Looking at Seattle, a lot of their statistics look pretty average, neither strengths nor weaknesses. That’s what one might expect from a .500 team. A healthy Felix Hernandez should help in the second half. The are 16-25 since he went on the disabled list.
Oakland Athletics 38-51, .427
Team Strengths: The batters do not strike out very much. They make the opposition defense work for outs. Bullpen is good at limiting on base and power.
Team Weaknesses: The offense doesn’t draw many walks, so with the low strikeout rate, this is a ball in play club. In a high strikeout era, that can be a good way to design an offense. They own a very low BABIP, however, and don’t hit home runs. So while the Athletics hitters get the bat on the ball, they don’t make quality contact. The starting pitching is horrible. They can’t hang in games, so an otherwise good bullpen is stressed.
If the construction of the offense was intentional, it didn’t work. Unfortunately, players who walk a lot are no longer undervalued.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 37-52, .416
Team Strengths: The offense does a good job of getting on base. The defense is decent, gaining them a few runs. In Mike Trout, they employee one of the best hitters in the majors.
Team Weaknesses: The team home run difference is huge, hitting 84 and allowing 117. Pretty much all three-true outcomes for the pitchers are poor. The offense’s ability to get on base is erased by hitting into the most double plays in the league, and wasting outs with sacrifice bunts.
This is probably the worst pitching staff I’ve seen on the Angels in many, many years.
Conclusion: Texas is a weak “best team in the league.” The Mariners should be better than their recent slump, as Houston showed it was better than their start of the season slump. I would not be surprised to see a good, three-team race in down the stretch.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/29OZZxy
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