The Cubs are looking less like a team for the ages lately, 5-14 in their last 19 games. Early in the season I appeared on a radio show and was extolling the greatness of this Cubs team. I was asked about the bullpen being weak. I noted that the bullpen shouldn’t be a problem because the starting pitching was very good and could go deep in games, and the offense was going to score a ton of runs. It was the old Bill James idea that strengths could hide weaknesses (and sometimes weaknesses could hide strengths). That remained true for most of the season.
Before this slump started in earnest, the starting pitching was slipping. Through 6/12 they averaged 6.42 innings per start with a 2.30 ERA. Since then, they average 5.56 innings per start, with a 4.86 ERA. If indeed the bullpen was a weakness, the Cubs are giving almost one more inning per game to that group. Since more relief pitching means using less talented pitchers, we would expect the bullpen to do worse.
Indeed, that’s the case. When the starters were hot, opponents hit .206/.297/.343 against the Cubs pen. With the starters cold, opponents are hitting .237/.319/.373. Also note that in both cases, the main weakness of the pen is walking batters.
It’s quite possible that the Cubs simply overworked the staff. Adam Warren started one game, otherwise the rotation has not varied. This is an old rotation going deep in games. Joe Maddon is good at spreading playing time among his position players. Maybe the Cubs need to think about using a sixth start occasionally to let the regulars rest. The all-star break should help, but right now, a weakened rotation exposed a weak bullpen.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/29tFCWZ
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